Sunday, April 13, 2008

Mistimed Aggression

I didn't play much over the weekend, but the theme from the couple of hundred hands I got in was mistimed aggression. Some of it may have just been bad, transparent plays. Or maybe I was just plain bluffing too frequently. Or, possibly, it was just bad timing. I've got some examples, and I'd appreciate some feedback.

Hand 1

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Hero (UTG): $50
CO: $261.55
BTN: $50
SB: $92.45
BB: $97.80
Pre-Flop: K A dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, BTN folds, SB calls $1.50, BB folds

Flop: ($5.75) 9 2 J (3 Players)

SB checks, Hero bets $4, CO folds, SB calls $4

Turn: ($13.75) 3 (2 Players)

SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($13.75) 5 (2 Players)
SB bets $4, Hero raises to $15, SB raises to $86.70 and is All-In, Hero folds

Results: $43.75 Pot ($2.15 Rake)
SB mucked and WON $41.60 (+$20.85 NET)

Here, I thought the small bet on the river looked like either a weak bluff (missed straight draw or spade draw), or a value bet with a naked 9 or J, so I figured a raise would signal a slow-played big hand - something like an overpair or a set of 9s or Js. Given the huge overpush, I really think the SB was the one holding the set. The mistake I made was putting a missed draw in the SB's range, since a bluff on a missed draw MUST be bigger than just the $4 bet on the end there.

Hand 2

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
UTG: $43
Hero (MP): $50.95
CO: $69.50
BTN: $50
SB: $65.95
BB: $66.80
Pre-Flop: Q J dealt to Hero (MP)

UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 2 folds, SB calls $1.50, BB folds

Flop: ($4) T 9 T (2 Players)
SB bets $3, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($10) 4 (2 Players)
SB bets $7, Hero calls $7

River: ($24) 6 (2 Players)

SB checks, Hero bets $15, SB raises to $54.20 and is All-In, Hero folds

Results: $54 Pot ($2.70 Rake)
SB mucked and WON $51.30 (+$24.55 NET)

Villain played a funny line that threw me way off here. I figured him for a missed draw or a weak 9. I couldn't see how he could fire the flop and turn and then put on the brakes on the river if he was holding a 7-8, a 10, or a set of 9s. And I thought my line looked like a cautious overpair or even a slow-played monster like A-10 or J-10. Maybe I was sniffed out here for being the one with the missed draw, but it's tough to do that against a PFR. So I have to think the villain had a monster, and was just hoping I would make exactly the move I did.

There's a consistent theme in these first two hands - I'm bluffing on the river. I wonder if I don't save some money in both of these spots by raising the turn, which prevents my opponents from putting me on bluffing a missed draw.

In this next one, I didn't wait so long to make my move...

Hand 3

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
SB: $53
Hero (BB): $70.70
UTG: $50
MP: $36.70
CO: $50.60
BTN: $66.70
Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG raises to $1.75, 4 folds, Hero raises to $5.50, UTG calls $3.75

Flop: ($11.25) 5 A 6 (2 Players)
Hero bets $7.50,
UTG raises to $19.50,
Hero raises to $65.20 and is All-In,
UTG calls $25 and is All-In
Turn: ($100.25) 4 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($100.25) T (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $100.25 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed Q Q (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$50 NET)
UTG showed 5 6 (two pair, Sixes and Fives) and WON $97.25 (+$47.25 NET)

I pushed on the flop here because I thought it would force A-10, A-J, and possibly A-Q to lay down. I certainly didn't think I'd see 5-6. I'm not sure how you make money calling PF re-raises with low suited connectors, but I guess I paid him enough here to make him want to keep trying it for a while to come. This was certainly a risky move, but I do think it will take a pot away from a loose player who plays AJ or A10 in that manner.

But it begs a greater question. Given that you are much less likely to see a floater in a hand that is 3-bet PF, do you have to give a lot more credence to a raise on the flop here? My villain has to know that it isn't very profitable to raise in a position like this, with an A on the board, unless he has something that can beat TPTK or TPSK (Second Kicker). Well, at least I had a bunch of outs.

This following hand came after all of these first 3 hands I've shown...

Hand 4

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
BB: $17.60
UTG: $61.55
MP: $21.85
CO: $50
Hero (BTN): $58
SB: $68.25
Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to $1.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, UTG calls $4.25

Flop: ($12.75) 7 9 4 (2 Players)

UTG checks,
Hero bets $9,
UTG raises to $22,
Hero raises to $52 and is All-In, <-- Was bracing for the call, and for being way behind.
UTG folds <-- At last, success!

Results: $56.75 Pot ($2.80 Rake)
Hero mucked Q Q and WON $53.95 (+$25.95 NET)

I guess I just need to tighten up and curtail my bluffing, or else come up with a better way of reasoning to find better spots to bluff.

These are some leaky hands, I know. Any problems with the way they were played?

No comments: