How Bad?

I think you know the answer already.

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($50.45)
SB ($20.20)
BB ($62.35)
UTG ($97.75)
MP ($77)
Hero (CO) ($52.65)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 6, 5, 3, 4
1 fold, MP bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($5.75) 4, J, 8 (3 players)
SB checks, MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($5.75) 5 (3 players)
SB bets $5.75, MP calls $5.75, Hero calls $5.75

River: ($23) 7 (3 players)
SB bets $12.70 (All-In), MP calls $12.70, Hero calls $12.70 <--- How bad?

Answer: Pretty bad. If the MP folds, then I'm not really all that upset about calling, since SB could be spazzing with a set or, more likely, jamming his 67 (which I just caught up with). When MP calls, he almost certainly has his own made straight. So now, if I call, I'm either hoping for either a 3-way chop or for MP and myself to chop up the SB's chips.

Total pot: $61.10 Rake: $3
Results:
SB had J, 4, J, A (three of a kind, Jacks).
MP had 9, 10, 10, 9 (straight, Jack high).
Hero had 6, 5, 3, 4 (straight, eight high).
Outcome: MP won $58.10

MP plays it wisely by just calling with the nuts, allowing it to creep into my head that he may just be keeping the aggro SB in line with a low-end straight or even a set. This entices me to make a spewy call behind.

Of course, it's easy to focus on my river play here as the source of my woes, when I should be looking at the bad turn call. I'm drawing slim against a made straight, not much better against a set, and on top of it all, I don't have any flush draw. I'm basically praying for one of 3 non-diamond deuces, and then for everyone else to shut it down. It's hopelessly optimistic and a losing proposition from the start.

Catching a Small Piece

So I wanted to examine another difficult spot in PLO cash games. It's a pretty straightforward odds calculation scenario, but there are a ton of variables that make knowing the precise odds very difficult.

Although PF 3-betting has increased in frequency in 6-max PLO games as more regulars settle in and figure out how profitable it is, you will still often find villains who are only 3-betting AAxx hands.  Oftentimes, the same type that is 3-betting with only AAxx also has no intention of ever folding that hand.  So, although strong hands like suited rundowns actually fare very well equity-wise against AAxx, it seems wiser to me to take advantage of the playability of suited rundowns postflop, rather than shipping it in PF.

The goal is to flop a big piece and get it in, but what constitutes a big piece and what do we do when we only catch a small piece?

Well, the big piece part is easy.  Any two pair, any sort of wrap, any pair + flush draw.  The small piece part is a bit tougher.  What do you do with just top pair on a 2-flush board?  What about on a rainbow board?  Not a trivial question to answer.

Here's the hand I played that prompted the investigation: 

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($29.03)
MP ($20.20)
Hero (CO) ($31.93)
Button ($16.30)
SB ($23.45)
BB ($15.90)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, 9, J, 10
2 folds, Hero bets $1.15, Button calls $1.15, SB raises to $5.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $4, Button calls $4

Flop: ($16) 10, 3, 5 (3 players)
SB bets $16, Hero?

Time to run some odds.

To simplify, let's assume our villain is holding an AAxx hand.  How are we sitting, knowing we are behind with just 1 pair, but that we have a lot of 2-pair outs and some backdoor straight draws?

Against a rainbow, poorly-connected hand (As-Ad-9h-5c), we get about as good as it gets at about 40-60:

Against a slightly better AAxx hand (single-suit, some connectedness), it comes down to 35-65:

That's the good news.  It gets bad (22-78) when villain has a diamond draw:

My guess is that it averages out somewhere around 33%.  So then it becomes a simple matter of pot odds.  Villain bets $16 and leaves $2 behind, so essentially, I need to call $18 to win $34.  So the pot is giving me 1.9-1.  33% is 2-1, so that means it's just barely a fold.

Pretty interesting result IMO.  All you have to do is shift that 33% up to 35%, and the odds are right on.  Holding just a pair, you can get your stack in against AAxx - the key is how much goes in PF, and with 100BB stacks and a pot-sized 3-bet, it will usually come out just about even.

In the hand in question, I suppressed my gambling itch, but next time, I'll probably do it differently:

...

...

Hero folds, 1 fold

Total pot: $16 Rake: $0.80
Results:
SB didn't show
Outcome: SB won $15.20

November

PLO Online: +$238.72

NLHE Online: N/A

Rakeback + Bonus: +$78.87
NLHE Live: +$189

So my PLO month was pretty good, although I did run a good $90 over EV, which is pretty lucky (but doesn't come close to cancelling out the -$225 I ran against EV last month). I played just over 5K hands and won at a 17.7 BB/100 clip. At this point, I'm ready, both mentally and bankroll-wise, to move up to $50 PLO ($.25-$.50). So at some point this week I'll just go ahead and make the move.

As for strategy and posts, I have a few hands and ideas to get into, but in general I don't have a whole lot to post. I think that's partly because I'm playing pretty nitty and straightforward and partly because I'm too green to try to talk authoritatively about PLO concepts. All of that said, I think I still have some glaring leaks, which I aim to root out and then air out here. So look out for some demonstrations of me at my PLO worst.

As for NLHE, I'm just running too good and enjoying PLO too much to want to play much NLHE online. The PLO novelty hasn't worn off yet. But I still plan to play some live NLHE, and when I do I will be sure to share those hands and experiences here.