Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Allergic to 50NL

Through the first half of February, I was down almost 10 buy-ins at 25NL, but I've been on a steady upswing, registering 6 straight winning sessions for at least a buy-in each. So I figure that today, I can start playing one 50NL table alongside 2 or 3 25NL tables. Well, I find it hard to believe that the level of play at 50NL is that much different from 25NL, but my results sure are. I dropped 2 buy-ins over about 80 hands. Here are the two big hands I played in that short stretch...

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BTN: $79.15
SB: $72.90
Hero (BB): $62.50
UTG: $51.85
MP: $55.70
CO: $30.70

Pre-Flop: A Q dealt to Hero (BB)
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN raises to $2.25, SB folds, Hero calls $1.75, CO calls $1.75

Flop: ($7) 7 8 A (3 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $5.50, Hero raises to $17, CO folds, BTN raises to $36.50, Hero raises to $60.25 and is All-In, BTN calls $23.75

Turn: ($127.50) 7 8 A [ K ] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($127.50) 7 8 A K [ 3 ] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $127.50 Pot ($3 Rake)
BTN showed A K (two pair, Aces and Kings) and WON $124.50 (+$62 NET)
Hero showed A Q (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-$62.50 NET)

I'm pretty sure this was just a cooler and I ended up against pretty much the worst hand he could possibly have (short of something Kh-Jh), but yell at me if you disagree.

The action gets crazy in the next one, so I'll try to explain my thinking...

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: $168.45
MP: $54.95
Hero (CO): $50
BTN: $50
SB: $62.85
BB: $35.05
Pre-Flop: T A dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($7) 7 4 T (4 Players)
SB checks, BB bets $7, <-- BB leads for pot. This is usually a draw, since strong made hands will usually check-raise rather than lead into 3 other players. I figure I can raise here to try to isolate...I expect BB to call, and I should be able to evaluate future streets in position.
Hero raises to $17,
BTN calls $17, <-- This is almost always a flush draw or combo draw, since a set is making another raise and not wanting to peel more cards. Good news, since they be stealing each other's FD outs.
SB folds, BB raises to $33.30 and is All-In, <-- Ugh, not great, since 2-pair is also in his range, but I stick with my draw read and make the call.
Hero calls $16.30,
BTN raises to $48.25 and is All-In, <-- This doesn't change anything, just makes it more likely he has a big, possibly nut, flush draw, and I'm obviously priced in.
Hero calls $14.95 and is All-In

Turn: ($136.80) 7 4 T [ T ] (3 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($136.80) 7 4 T T [ 6 ] (3 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $136.80 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed T A (three of a kind, Tens) and WON $29.90 (-$20.10 NET)
BTN showed J A (a pair of Tens) and LOST (-$50 NET)
BB showed 8 9 (a straight, Ten high) and WON $103.90 (+$68.85 NET)

Maybe my reads were overly optimistic but they turned out to be on the money. I won't usually get it in like this with TPTK with AT, but the situation was unique. I was a 43% favorite, with AJ at 35% and 89 at 21%. Interestingly, if the AdJd were instead AdQd, I would be 36% and the AQ 43%, so I was greatly benefited by my opponents' J outs cancelling out.

As it went, I lost the main pot to the rivered straight, but won a $30 side pot, and only ended down $20. Anyone hate my play or reads here?

Nold's Challenge Event #4

We ran through Tournament 4 of our series of 6 last night. The cream appears to be rising to the top:


There were some epic suckouts, including the new biggest suckout of the series:


Mr. Heflin was saved by the miracle 1-outer to quad up (DQB!) and bust Kennell. But he would receive his comeuppance in the other big suckout of the night:



All-in on the flop with set vs. overpair, Scott hit a 2-outer A to bust Heflin and boost himself up to top of the leaderboard.

From there, Scott would go on to break his bubble streak and take the whole thing down, moving him firmly into first place in the standings.
































































































































































































































Screen NameT1T2T3T4Total PtsTotal (worst removed)
BigMoneyBogart101010205040
truelonghorn3158154138
TBTH5615123833
rootytoot320183231
czervick0529202173029
Adrienne G612012827
BabyRyan31158232826
Hoosier Hef2121222826
puddingman732102220
noldmax121162019
mauiseven83611817
GreenRanger6017341514
sep76golf24251311
srs2142421210
b2w21711110
winston19751531109
Dudeabidess115298
jaa77121376

Friday, February 20, 2009

Two Weird Rivers - Results

Thanks to the commenters for the feedback. Here are the results from my earlier post.

Hand 1
Villain is 20/15/2.3 over 81 hands

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BB: 46.72 BB
UTG: 40.24 BB
CO: 154.36 BB
BTN: 151 BB
Hero (SB): 152.64 BB
Pre-Flop: A A dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, CO raises to 3.4BB, BTN folds, Hero raises to 12BB, BB folds, CO raises to 28.8BB, Hero calls 16.8BB

Flop: (58.6BB) K K 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (58.6BB) K K 8 [ 9 ] (2 Players)
Hero bets 36BB, CO calls 36BB

River: (130.6BB) K K 8 9 [ T ] (2 Players)
Hero?

The obvious drawback to taking a tricky line with AA is that there are all kinds of flops that put you in awkward positions, especially OOP. (Which is not to mention the scary flops that kill action and cap your take)

Although AK is a prominent part of my opponent's range, I expect him to either continue on the flop or raise my turn bet. When he calls my turn bet, it's most likely that he is just looking for a cheap showdown, although there's a remote chance that he may be setting me up to get it in on the river with AK.

The river is a not-so-great T, leaving only JJ and QQ as hands that I beat. If I check here, I can usually expect JJ or QQ to check behind, since both hands still have some showdown value, and since my opponent has to be concerned that I am holding something like AK, TT, 99. Given this, I think that there is a good case for check-folding the river.

However, my thinking instead went like this - I look so weak if I check that I open myself to a river bluff, which I will probably have to call. Therefore, I prefer to shove myself and possibly get crying call value from QQ. Also, by shoving, I avoid having to make a tough decision if my opponent value bets or shoves.

But since there is almost no part of his range that is bluffing (a desperately remote chance of AQs??), does that make check/fold a better river line?

Rodney suggested betting 1/3 pot and folding to a raise. I feel that if you are going to take this line, you might as well check/fold, since it's so hard for a worse hand to call, and you're folding quite a bit to shoves.

Bruechips suggested 1/2 pot (and call shove) or shove. If you are trying to get value from QQ/JJ, maybe 1/2 pot is better than shoving.

Ron suggested 1/3 pot or check. All different answers. Anyone want to make a case against check-folding? Is it just too weak?

Hero bets 87.84BB and is All-In, CO folds

Results: 130.6BB Pot (6.52BB Rake)
Hero mucked A A and WON 124.08BB (+59.28BB NET)

-------------------------------------------------------

Hand 2
Villain is 18/11/0.9 over 140 hands

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
SB: 35.92 BB
BB: 100.52 BB
UTG: 117 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 143.32 BB
Hero (BTN): 227.36 BB
Pre-Flop: Q K dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to 3.4BB, 2 folds, Hero calls 3.4BB, SB calls 3BB, BB folds

Flop: (11.2BB) Q 5 4 (3 Players)
SB checks, UTG bets 7BB, Hero calls 7BB, SB folds

Turn: (25.2BB) Q 5 4 [ 5 ] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: (25.2BB) Q 5 4 5 [ 6 ] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets 15BB,
UTG raises to 60BB,
Hero?

Everyone suggested fold here, but this raise just didn't make sense to me. If the villain makes a big hand on the river (or already had something like QQ), I figure he has to lead, since there's a good chance that I check behind with my likely range - Qx/77-JJ. A solid hand like AA/KK/AQ/JJ/TT probably calls rather than raising. On top of that, the raise was suspiciously big, almost full pot size. It seemed to me that he was putting me on something mediocre, making a weakish value bet, and decided to pounce.

So, I called. All commenters called this an easy fold. How leaky is my call?


Hero calls 45BB

Results: 145.2BB Pot (7.24BB Rake)
UTG showed J A (a pair of Fives) and LOST (-70.4BB NET)
Hero showed Q K (two pair, Queens and Fives) and WON 137.96BB (+67.56BB NET)

First winning session in quite a while. It felt nice.