PLO: 3-Way All-In

I pledged to actually start posting some PLO cash hands and mine for interesting content, tough spots, and major leaks in my game. Well, I had this hand go down the other day...all of the action is pre-flop, but PLO can be a funny game pre-flop, playing far differently than NLHE, and providing a much higher frequency of multi-way all-in scenarios.

UTG is 43/9/2.5 over 92.
BB is 63/19/1.3 w/5.3% 3-bet over 41 hands.

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($47.10)
SB ($37.91)
BB ($30.09)
UTG ($29.01)
Hero (MP) ($28.42)
CO ($70.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, Q, A, 6
UTG bets $1.15,

Hero calls $1.15, <-- Kinda hate my hand, what with no suits and that ugly 6 dangler. But I'm never folding any AAxx hand to a single raise, especially in position. The set over set possibilities are yummy enough on their own to make this call automatic

CO calls $1.15, Button calls $1.15, 1 fold,

BB raises to $7.30, <-- It gets interesting here. This is almost always AAxx, although there's always the chance he's just some complete gamblerrific maniac. It's less likely, but he could also have a really strong rundown, like AKQJds or KQJTds.

UTG calls $6.15, <-- This is most definitely not AAxx, since he would be getting it in 100% of the time.

Hero raises to $28.37 (All-In), <-- One thing I know for sure - I can't just call, since there will be so many unattractive flops. But I think folding may actually be fine. Some analysis coming below.
2 folds, BB raises to $30.04 (All-In), UTG calls $21.66 (All-In)

Flop: ($88.99) 7, 8, 5 (3 players, 3 all-in)
Turn: ($88.99) Q (3 players, 3 all-in)
River: ($88.99) 4 (3 players, 3 all-in)
Total pot: $88.99 Rake: $3
Results:
BB had J, Q, 9, 10 (one pair, Queens).
UTG had 9, 9, 10, J (one pair, nines).
Hero had A, Q, A, 6 (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: BB won $1.18, Hero won $84.81

I remember pushing the button to ship my stack in, and I remember immediately regretting it. Then I saw all of the cards turn up, and the board race out so fast that I couldn't compute quickly enough whether my hand had held up or not. For some reason the Q seemed particularly bad. But then, I see it all being shipped my way.

I quickly went back and ran the odds, and here's where I was really stunned:

That's right, I was a 67% favorite to win in a 3-way all-in pre-flop PLO hand. I smiled at my good fortune and immediately felt vindicated for my pre-flop play. But then I started wondering about my original assumption - that at least one of my opponents held AAxx. So let's see what happens when we keep the rundown and give the 3rd opponent a mediocre single-suited AAxx hand:

This is pretty dramatic. Less than 7% to win outright, and only 22% equity. In other words, I most definitely want to avoid getting it all in here. And, interestingly, the suited rundown jumps up to being the favorite at 44% equity. So basically, given my assumption that I was up against an AAxx hand at least as strong as this one, I should probably have folded.

Now let's look at an even stronger AAxx hand, a double-suited hand with some connectedness:

My equity sinks down to 17%! And this confirms my original fear and bolsters my opinion of my starting hand - without suitedness, it is garbage.

But, we have to note a growing trend in PLO. As more players come to understand how well strong rundowns play against AAxx, we have to consider the possibility that more players will be willing to get all-in with these hands, and may even be the all-in aggressor. And as this hand reveals, when you end up going multi-way, if you have 2 hands with overlapping rundowns, you get a disastrous card cancellation effect (stealing each other's out) that absolutely murders your equity.

Ultimately, we have to know our opponents to know whether it will be wise to get in with a bad AAxx hand. Have we seen them get maniacal with rundowns? Have we seen them call off with these types of hands? In most cases, you will see 2 AAxx hands, and you are in big trouble. So I still think I should have mucked here.

One final note: Regarding the BB's PF 3-bet with the Q-high rundown, I think it's pretty bad, mainly b/c you have very little fold equity and will almost surely be taking a flop 3-handed or worse from OOP. And once the 3-bet has been called in 2 places, you are holding less than a PSB. Nevermind the possibility that someone with a dominating AAxx hand might be ready to get it in and have you in bad shape.

2 In The Flesh - Results

Alright, thanks for the comments on the 2 live action hands. I got a nice range of responses.

Hand 1)
Preflop: 4 limpers, I have Ad-Ts in the BB and check. Pot is $11.
Flop: Th-6c-3s. I lead for $7, 1 MP calls, CO raises to $30. MP has $80 behind, CO has $110 behind. What's the best play here?

This is a really awkward spot. The flop is ultra-dry, and I'm getting my TPTK raised by a non-aggro villain. It looks pretty strong. At the time we were playing, I thought there had to be a good chance that he had a set of 3's or 6's. But I convinced myself that he might make this play with KT or AT, or possibly 45. After all, I'm leading from the SB, so he has to think that I may be leading a lot of T-x hands that can't stand a raise. So I called, thinking I could get away if the 45 OESD got there, or if something like a Q or K peeled and he kept blasting away. The MP girl folded.

So the pot was $78. The turn was an A, giving me top 2 but not really changing anything if my read was right. I checked, he bet another $30, and after some deliberation I decided to ship in the rest. I figured he may still call with KT, not expecting the A to have helped me. Or, he may make a bad call with 45 and try to river his straight. He tanked for a minute and then called off his last $80. He showed 3-6 for a flopped 2-pair, and the river bricked.

We jawed at each other a little bit afterwards, with him basically calling me a donkey for thinking my AT was good after his flop raise, and me countering that I didn't expect a decent player to be in there with 3-6. I told him I thought he might make that raise with a T, and he said he would never do that.

Good call by Wonka, Mojo, Meister. Bad call by me (and great turn!), and especially bad call by Hef. :)

But in all seriousness, I don't think I would ever re-pop that flop, at least not against this villain. It's a limped pot, so a 3-bet here is only getting called by better hands - sets and 2-pairs. It was a mistake to add 4-5 to his range, and that's the only hand you would want to be 3-betting for value on the flop. The last thing we want to do against KT is 3-bet and let him get away easily.

Another point on this hand is my initial comment - it's harder for me to lay down hands like this live, since the action is so much slower, and it's hard to know how long it will be until you get a hand as playable as TPTK. And since I only get 3-5 hour live action windows, sometimes I can go for entire sessions without much happening. So I force things to happen, which rarely turns out good. But this was one of those fortunate times.

Hand 2)
Villain in this hand has a small clue about how to play, but has no idea how to size his bets, and I have seen him make some random bluffs.

Preflop: I won the previous pot so I post a $5 kill and I'm on the button. 2 EP player limp and I check 45o. SB folds and BB calls. Pot is $21.
Flop: 7-8-Q rainbow. It checks around to me and I check it through.
Turn: 6. UTG limper leads for $7, UTG+1 calls, and I call. Pot is $40.
River: 8. UTG leads for $23. UTG+1 folds. It's on me and UTG has $60 behind. Hero?

I thought it was interesting how many of you are suggesting a river shove here, especially when the river card is so ugly, pairing the board and putting me behind a bunch of hands. Only Mojo seemed committed to a call, everyone else suggesting a shove. I was actually waffling between calling and folding.

Let's examine the action - UTG checks the flop and then leads the turn...this suggests a couple possibilities:
a) He had a big hand on the flop and was hoping to trap (Q8/77/88...78 less likely, since I think most people would bet to protect a vulnerable bottom 2 pair)
b) He has made a hand on the turn and wants to get value (66/76/86/9T/59/54)
c) He now feels good about a weak made hand after the flop checked through (Q-x/8-x)
d) He has decided to bluff or semi-bluff (5-x/9-x) from OOP with a small 1/3 pot bet.

Now on the river, the 8 pairs, and he leads out again from OOP, and this time for more (still only about 1/2 pot, but I think in his eyes it was a big bet). To my mind, this eliminates all of the Q-x hands in category c), and also eliminates some of the hands in category b), like 76. What's left? A bunch of boats, some 8-x hands, and the unlikely bluff. It's a small pot and I'm only in it b/c I posted a kill...do I really want to ship it here and risk dumping off 50BBs in a limped pot?

I actually thought he was strong, and had it been a bigger pot, I may well have folded. But I made what I thought was the crying call, mainly on the thought that he would be making this bet with a wide range of 8-x hands. He showed A-6, which really falls into the unlikely bluff category. Shipping wouldn't have gotten a call here, but it's worth wondering whether it would have gotten a call from 8-x.

I had a pretty solid session, starting with $160 and leaving with $410, so now I'm all psyched to get back out there again. Back home, I'm still grinding PLO, but I'm losing patience, so I may be back at the 6-max NLHE games before too long.

2 In The Flesh

After negotiating my way into a night of live poker ($1-$2NLHE), I found myself in a funny but familiar position - having just a few short hours to balance my desire to get in as much action as possible with the need to play a smart, winning game.  This is such a common story for me as a poker hobbyist (an enthusiast, but still, given the short shrift of time poker gets, ultimately just a hobbyist).  I love the nuance of the live game, but the online game gives me the fully immersive action of multi-tabling and having the action come by spitfire.

Anyways, keep that in mind as you considering these two hands I played.  What's the right action in these spots?

Hand 1) 

The CO in this hand is a Middle Eastern guy that I've played with many times.  He plays a lot of hands but is a thinking player.  He's not terribly aggressive but limps with a wide range and may continue with a wide range, especially in a small pot.  MP is a young Asian girl playing a short stack who I have never seen get out of line post-flop.  I expect her play to be very straightforward.

Preflop: 4 limpers, I have Ad-Ts in the BB and check.  Pot is $11.

Flop: Th-6c-3s.  I lead for $7, 1 MP calls, CO raises to $30.  MP has $80 behind, CO has $110 behind.  What's the best play here?

Hand 2)

Villain in this hand has a small clue about how to play, but has no idea how to size his bets, and I have seen him make some random bluffs.

Preflop: I won the previous pot so I post a $5 kill and I'm on the button.  2 EP player limp and I check 45o.  SB folds and BB calls.  Pot is $21.

Flop: 7-8-Q rainbow.  It checks around to me and I check it through.

Turn: 6.  UTG limper leads for $7, UTG+1 calls, and I call.  Pot is $40.

River: 8.  UTG leads for $23.  UTG+1 folds.  It's on me and UTG has $60 behind.  Hero?

October

So I did a little disappearing act this month, at least blog-wise. And yeah, I guess the sentiment does also apply a little to poker. Specifically, I have disappeared from the live poker games here around Austin, TX. Just haven't been able to clear the nights to play.

As for my online play, I'm still going at it, but I spent almost the entirety of October playing 6-max PLO on Full Tilt. After the run I had at the end of September, I really wanted to keep riding the PLO wave. Unfortunately, the wave crashed down on me in a nasty way. Here were the month's results.

PLO variance put me to the test here, as I ran a full $200 behind EV over the 4.5K hands that I played. The good news is that I'm still playing a winning game, since my EV was above water.

I still have some major leaks. I call way too many big river bets with non-nut flushes and not holding boats on paired boards. On the upside, I'm getting better at picking my value betting spots, and actually sticking to a bet-fold strategy in thin spots.

The really good news is that the 25PLO games are still swarming with awful players. You just have to be ready to withstand some lumps before they hand it all over to you.

NLHE Online: +$123.97 (just 800 hands)
NLHE Live: N/A
PLO Online: -$189.20
Rakeback: +$83.31

In terms of posting, I guess I have been feeling like the PLO hands I've been playing have been pretty ABC and haven't contained much worth discussing on the strategy side. At low levels where the fundamental play is bad, you really just need to play solid ABC PLO and not get too tricky. But I'm sure there are enough interesting spots that I can start diving into with some more depth. It always seems to help my game when I do so, and maybe that will be part of the trick to getting my profit curve point upwards again. Then again, this is PLO, and the variance is wild and cruel, so maybe I should just keep focused on that EV number, and let the profits come around when the PLO Gods are damn well ready to let it happen.

Oh yeah, I'm headed back to the local live felts this weekend, as the wife and daughter are out of town. So I'll keep a close tab on the action this Friday and Saturday and report anything interesting or noteworthy towards the end of the weekend.

Sweet September

NLHE Online: +$65.27

PLO: +$289.08

NLHE Live: -$131

Rakeback/Bonus: +$91.05

Tourneys: +$1250

Even though I didn't get a whole lot going on the NLHE front, this was by far my most successful month, owing mostly to my $4K guarantee 2nd place finish. Then, I had a monster PLO run to close out the month, running at a cool 132.9 BB/100 over 881 hands. To manage that, I had to run well ahead of EV, but even if I had run well behind EV it would have been hard to register as a loser over that period. Here's the chart:

And after my one day tourney run netted me $1K+, I actually made my first poker money withdrawal on the year, yanking out 8 benjamins, which I will probably take directly to the live house games to squander! It's a vicious circle.

About That 3rd Tourney

So I left off the last post when I was still playing a $4K guaranteed rebuy PLO tourney on Friday, and I haven't gotten a chance to report on the results. Well, here's how it ended:


I'm pretty sure you won't hear me talking about how upset I am that I didn't win this thing. 2nd place is pretty nice, and so is the $1K prize.

Early on, I was in for 2 buy-ins and took a river beat on a pretty wretched call (naked Q-high flush draw calling off his stack). It was right before the rebuy period ended, and I really didn't intend on buying in for 4-5 buys, but given the quality of play that had busted me at that point, I figured I still had a solid edge, so I bought back, took the optional 2nd rebuy, and then also took the add-on. So there I was, in for $50 in this thing, and feel a little stupid about it.

But sure enough, I stuck around, and hit the final table in ho-hum position:


All I can say about this run is that I hope I didn't use up all of my poker luck for a while. I had to dig out of some nasty spots and hit some very lucky cards to survive as long as I did. Consider a few hands here....

Just inside of the money, with 14 players left, I played this hand:

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha Tournament, 1200/2400 Blinds (7 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop saw showdown
MP1 (t55468)
MP2 (t33600)
CO (t63904)
Hero (SB) (t65434)
BB (t108438)
UTG (t65941)
UTG+1 (t88296)
Hero's M: 18.18
Preflop: Hero is SB with J, 7, K, Q
UTG calls t2400, UTG+1 calls t2400, 1 fold, MP2 calls t2400, 1 fold, Hero calls t1200, BB checks

Flop: (t12000) 8, K, 10 (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets t5000, 1 fold, Hero raises to t21000, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls t16000

Turn: (t54000) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets t42034 (All-In), UTG+1 calls t42034

River: (t138068) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t138068
Results:
Hero had J, 7, K, Q (straight, King high).
UTG+1 had 9, A, J, K (straight, Jack high).
Outcome: Hero won t138068

So I was a 3.4-1 dog going to the river there, and hit one of my 10 outs.

I tried to offer my condolences, and the chat conversation went like this:

noldmax: u had me crushed...tough beat

TopKorneR: u and u were 2 stupid to see it

noldmax: so what, you're just mucking in my spot? please

TopKorneR: not shoving

I'm pretty sure he's wrong...I pretty much have to shove here, since I am still going to have to call if I check and he shoves. And at this point, I have 2-pair to go with my OESD and 3rd-nut FD, so this could well be for value.

I had one more miracle go my way, midway through the final table. I was short-stacked and just looking for a hand to shove. I saw what seemed decent to shove with, and turned out to be pretty far behind:

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha Tournament, 4000/8000 Blinds (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop saw showdown
SB (t69464)
BB (t75893)
Hero (UTG) (t64159)
MP (t233222)
CO (t137732)
Button (t358530)
Hero's M: 5.35
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7, Q, Q, 2
Hero bets t28000, 4 folds, BB raises to t75893 (All-In), Hero calls t36159 (All-In)

Flop: (t132318) 2, 9, 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)
Turn: (t132318) 5 (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: (t132318) K (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: t132318
Results:
BB had A, 7, A, Q (one pair, Aces).
Hero had 7, Q, Q, 2 (two pair, sevens and twos).
Outcome: Hero won t132318

With my opponent holding both a Q and 7, I'm hurting badly pre-flop, but even as a 4-1 dog, I luck out and hit a miracle 2-7 on the flop, which holds up and keeps me alive.

I took this snapshot with 4 players left, on the assumption that I'd be documenting some sort of meltdown when I went from chip leader to busto with 4 left.


But I managed to outlast 2 more, getting heads-up at a pretty big disadvantage. The final hand went like this:

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha Tournament, 8000/16000 Blinds (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) (t181732)
BB (t757268)
Hero's M: 7.57
Preflop: Hero is SB with 2, J, K, J
Hero bets t38000, BB raises to t114000, Hero raises to t181732 (All-In), BB calls t67732

Flop: (t363464) 3, 4, Q (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t363464) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t363464) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: t363464
Results:
Hero had 2, J, K, J (two pair, Jacks and nines).
BB had 9, A, 7, K (three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: BB won t363464

Hey, if my lucks gonna run out, it might as well be once I've wrapped up a $1K prize, right?

It could be a long time before I get a wide open day to fire up some more tourneys like this, but when that day comes around, there will be a pretty high standard to reach after this monster tourney day. Until then, I'll be back grinding the 6-max tables.

Tourney What??

That's right, I played in a real honest-to-goodness tourney. I happen to be in Atlanta, far from the dual-monitor, PT3 stats-assisted comfort of home, burning away hours in a hotel room while the wife engages in various bridesmaid activities whose details I am happy to know nothing about. This means I have a rare large block of time in which to fit some decent sized tourneys.

I only fired up 3 tourneys - a $22 buy-in, $5K guarantee on Stars, which I was running well in until I ran KK into AA vs. one of the few bigger stacks at my table. Then I started a $13 90-man turbo/kill tourney, and I somehow pulled out the miracle:

I had to make a pretty big comeback from being the shortest stack left with around 14 left, and then when we got down to 3-handed, I had 34K up against 100K and 134K. But I'm most proud of the 2 big heads-up hands that allowed me to finish the deal.

My opponent was a complete aggro-monkey, who knew very little more than to shove or otherwise overcommit himself. I picked up on this early, when he would shove his stack PF nearly every time that I just called out of the SB. I was patiently waiting my turn when the following hand came up:

Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, 2,000/4,000 Blinds, 500 Ante, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (BB): 103,962
SB: 166,038
Pre-Flop: (7,000) A 2 dealt to Hero (BB)
SB calls 2,000, Hero raises to 13,000, SB calls 9,000

Since villian has been raising big or shoving, I'm slightly concerned that he may be trapping with a real hand, but since I've been waiting patiently for something as good as an A, I have to raise while I'm pretty sure to be well ahead.

Flop: (27,000) K 2 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets 132,000, Hero calls 90,462 and is All-In

I connect in a pretty small way, so I'm happy to have it check through. If I c-bet, he may make some sort of aggro-shove, but by checking, his aggro-shove looks even more bluffy, whereas a shove over my c-bet may be a value move. Even though I suspect a bluff, this is a really thin spot, since he will clearly have decent equity with 2 overs, even if he has air. But against a total aggro-monkey like this guy, I have to take my chances in a thin spot.

Turn: (207,924) 2 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: (207,924) 8 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: 207,924 Pot
Hero showed A 2 (three of a kind, Twos) and WON 207,924 (+103,962 NET)
SB showed T 9 (a pair of Twos) and LOST (-103,962 NET)

So that turned out beautifully, and I was prepared to settle in and wait for another spot to catch him overplaying something bad or marginal. This happened only 3 hands later...

Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, 2,000/4,000 Blinds, 500 Ante, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (SB): 200,924
BB: 69,076
Pre-Flop: (7,000) 5 7 dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero calls 2,000, BB checks

Flop: (9,000) 7 A 9 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

No need to fire here and get myself into a marginal spot with bottom pair.

Turn: (9,000) 2 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (9,000) 9 (2 Players)
BB bets 64,576 and is All-In, Hero calls 64,576

Given how aggro this guy has been playing, there's virtually no hand that he is holding here that he wouldn't have either shoved pre-flop or shoved on the flop. This is pretty close to a guaranteed bluff.

Results: 138,152 Pot
Hero showed 5 7 (two pair, Nines and Sevens) and WON 138,152 (+69,076 NET)
BB showed T 6 (a pair of Nines) and LOST (-69,076 NET)

And like that, I scored a $288 win (plus 10 knockouts for $20!).

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention the 3rd tourney. I'm currently playing in a $10, $4K guarantee rebuy PLO tourney, I've already made the cash, and I'm sitting 5th with 11 runners left.