Friday, May 23, 2008

Stagnation

Late update (busy week)...I managed almost 1000 hands online this past weekend. It was a mixed bag, mostly bad. In fact, bad enough that I decided to drop back down from 50NL to 25NL.

I suck. I know.

It looked like this:
50NL - 520 hands, -$99.60
25NL - 459 hands, +$40.45

Overall, I'm still a winning 50NL player, but I haven't budged much in a while. All of this mediocrity got me thinking, so I started digging through my PokerTracker stats (using the lovely new PokerTracker3), and found this:

March - +577.05
April - +33.70
May - -59.85

Ever since a really nice March, coinciding with the birth of this blog, wherein I started at 25NL, played really strongly, moved to 50NL, and continued to play well, I have been floundering. I made minimal progress in April, and I've been backpedaling since (although May rake was ~$92, which makes the difference between profit and loss here) . I'm not sure why, but I think some analysis is in order to get myself straight. For one thing, I think I play best when focused on a single game and style. So I need to stick to 6-max NLHE, and not be mixing in PLO or NLHE tourneys. Back at the start, I was playing more hands, but I also had a singular focus on 6-max NLHE, and it allowed me to really focus and play right.

Well, I have a week left in May, so I'm hoping to pull back into the black. I don't have too far to go.

Here are the Sweet and Sour Hands from last weekend...

Sour Hand:
Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
MP: $30.95
Hero (CO): $58.40
BTN: $48.25
SB: $76.20
BB: $56.75
UTG: $17.30

Pre-Flop: 7 7 dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG raises to $1.75, MP folds, Hero calls $1.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.25) 4 7 3 (2 Players)
UTG bets $3, Hero raises to $9, UTG raises to $15.55 and is All-In, Hero calls $6.55
Turn: ($35.35) J (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($35.35) 5 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $35.35 Pot ($1.75 Rake)
Hero showed 7 7 (three of a kind, Sevens) and LOST (-$17.30 NET)
UTG showed A 2 (a straight, Five high) and WON $33.60 (+$16.30 NET)

This is why I usually love the shorties...they have less to lose so they play badly trying to double up quickly. But this is a whole 'nother level...as if I would fold with anything to an extra $6 push.

I have 2 sweet hands, because it takes two sweet hands at 25NL to make up for one sour hand at 50NL. But that's how it goes for me.

Sweet Hand #1:
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
BTN: $25.10
SB: $34.70
BB: $16
UTG: $26
Hero (MP): $36.95
CO: $26.75
Pre-Flop: A K dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 3 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 8 7 K (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls $1.50

Turn: ($4.80) 4 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB calls $3

River: ($10.80) 3 (2 Players)

BB checks, Hero bets $11, BB calls $10.65 and is All-In

Results: $32.10 Pot ($1.60 Rake)
BB mucked K J (a pair of Kings) and LOST (-$16 NET)
Hero showed A K (a pair of Kings) and WON $30.50 (+$14.50 NET)

I just don't find too many players who will call off their entire stack to a 3-barrel with top-pair, weak kicker. This is why 25NL is so much more profitable than 50NL.

Sweet Hand #2:
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
BTN: $12.95
SB: $32.30
BB: $3.05
Hero (UTG): $25
CO: $29

Pre-Flop: A A dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.55) J 6 6 (3 Players)
SB bets $1.25, BB folds, Hero raises to $3.50, SB calls $2.25

Turn: ($9.55) 2 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, SB calls $7

River: ($23.55) T (2 Players)
SB bets $20.95 and is All-In, Hero calls $13.65 and is All-In

The T isn't a scare card at all. If villain holds JT, which I'm hoping, he just made a bad enough 2-pair to be willing to call off his stack. But it turns out it isn't even that strong...

Results: $50.85 Pot ($2.50 Rake)
SB showed A J (two pair, Jacks and Sixes) and LOST (-$25 NET)
Hero showed A A (two pair, Aces and Sixes) and WON $48.35 (+$23.35 NET)

Long Memorial Day weekend...I hope to get in a lot of cash hands, and maybe a few MTTs. And hell, maybe even some live poker too.

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