Thursday, March 13, 2008

The psychology of big pocket pairs

I'm writing this after a few days of poker in which the big pocket pairs (QQ-AA) delivered me painful beating after painful beating. Now these are the hands that we wait so patiently for, that make us tense up and drool a little when we see them. They're basically instant money in the bank. Well, this is exactly the problem, or at least it's my problem. The moment I see them, I commit myself to taking them all the way to showdown. It's a major leak, and figuring out how to plug it has become one of my highest priority goals.

Now look, I'm not going to complain about hands like this....

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $46.80
BTN: $43.75
Hero (SB): $24.85
BB: $52.80
UTG: $25
Pre-Flop: A A dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, BTN raises to $1, Hero raises to $3.25, BB folds, BTN raises to $11.10, Hero raises to $24.85 and is All-In, BTN calls $13.75

Flop: ($49.95) 8 2 J (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Turn: ($49.95) 3 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($49.95) 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $49.95 Pot ($2.45 Rake)
BTN showed A Q (a flush, Ace high) and WON $47.50 (+$22.65 NET)
Hero showed A A (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-$24.85 NET)

And as for this one, well, it's just not in my DNA to get away from this...

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
SB: $25.10
Hero (BB): $36.35
UTG: $25
MP: $30.65
CO: $29.85
BTN: $27.30
Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.85, SB raises to $3, Hero raises to $9.85, BTN folds, SB raises to $25.10 and is All-In, Hero calls $15.25
Flop: ($51.05) 3 T J (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Turn: ($51.05) 6 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($51.05) T (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $51.05 Pot ($2.55 Rake)
SB showed A A (two pair, Aces and Tens) and WON $48.50 (+$23.40 NET)
Hero showed K K (two pair, Kings and Tens) and LOST (-$25.10 NET)

In this one, there was actually a decision to make:

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BB: $23.30
UTG: $26.90
MP: $13.60
CO: $6.70
Hero (BTN): $23.40
SB: $21.80
Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to $0.85,
MP calls $0.85,
CO folds,
Hero raises to $3.75,
2 folds,
UTG raises to $10, <----- This thins the range considerably (AA-JJ, AK)
MP folds,
Hero calls $6.25 <----- I call, and plan to get it in if it flops undercards.

Flop: ($21.20) J 3 6 (2 Players) <----- Undercards, but now JJ beats me
UTG bets $16.90 and is All-In, <----- I lose my fold equity
Hero calls $13.40 and is All-In <----- Crying call...what do I beat here?

Turn: ($48) 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($48) 3 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $48 Pot ($2.40 Rake)
UTG showed K K (two pair, Kings and Threes) and WON $45.60 (+$22.20 NET)
Hero showed Q Q (two pair, Queens and Threes) and LOST (-$23.40 NET)

That third PF re-raise should be a dead giveaway. It's AA or KK there 80% of the time, JJ 10% (most will check there, or bet smaller, when hitting the flop that hard), and 10% of the time I'm up against a total clown holding AK or 1010. And it's just not wise to pin your hopes on your villain being a total fool. The percentages just don't add up.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $42.85
BTN: $23
Hero (SB): $24.15
BB: $40.40
UTG: $15.70
MP: $29.15
Pre-Flop: A A dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG calls $0.25,
MP folds,
CO raises to $1.10,
BTN raises to $3.15, <----- Me likey....
Hero calls $3.05, <----- Can you sense me salivating?
3 folds

Flop: ($7.90) 9 Q T (2 Players)
Hero checks,
BTN bets $2,
Hero raises to $8, <----- Sir, I will be taking this pot now.
BTN raises to $19.85 and is All-In, <----- Could it be KK?
Hero calls $11.85

Turn: ($47.60) J (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($47.60) 4 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $47.60 Pot ($2.35 Rake)
BTN showed Q Q (three of a kind, Queens) and WON $45.25 (+$22.25 NET)
Hero showed A A (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-$23 NET)

Here, the only hand I feel really good about is KK. I don't see AK making that big re-raise on the flop, but I see a lot of QQ, 1010, and even JJ (which I am only slightly ahead of), thrilled to lure me into a huge pot here.

So yeah, it's easy to get excited about those big pocket pairs, but it's a huge mistake to assume that it's a foregone conclusion that you're going to win the pot. And thinking back on the big showdownss I've won with big pocket pairs, it usually comes two ways:
1) When I get it all-in pre-flop, usually holding either AA or KK.
2) When I make a set.

In general, with regards to winning big pots, they usually come when you hit a big flop. So when the chips are flying into the pot and you're the one holding the overpair, think back on all of the occasions when you flopped two-pair or a set against a PF raiser, and were drooling over the prospect of that villain overplaying their overpair.

When holding big PPs, once you miss that flop, proceed cautiously, and never get your mind into a state where you can't let it go.

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