Trio of Trouble Results

So this trio of hands ended up having a common strain, one that I didn't recognize until after I had posted them up.  The common theme is misjudging your opponents' ranges.  I sometimes get into trouble by projecting a standard range on a nonstandard player... the most common mistake is to remove strong hands from a villain's range when that villain plays them passively.

H1)
No stats at the time.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
SB: $88.80
BB: $28.30
Hero (UTG): $76.55
MP: $39.80
CO: $50
BTN: $101.25
CO posts $0.50
Pre-Flop: Q A dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $2.25, MP raises to $5, 4 folds, Hero calls $2.75

Flop: ($11.25) Q 8 3 (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP bets $7, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($25.25) 9 (2 Players)
Hero?

This is a weird spot because my hand seems strong, but given my opponent's awkward stack size and your lack of position, it isn't easy to know what to do.  I think it's really tempting to lead out, but what would be the purpose?  I.e., what worse hands to we expect to call us here?  Well, we have to start with the small 3-bet, which I interpret as pretty strong, meaning only pairs (probably TT+) and AK.  The kind of regulars who 3-bet with suited connectors and other weaker hands will always make bigger 3-bets than this.  Given this range, the only worse hands would be J-J or T-T.  99/QQ+ all have us beat, meaning that we are just getting more money in behind. 

In a deeper stacked game, I think we would definitely check, since we don't mind having it checked behind (free draw to nuts, plus it means we are probably already good), and if villain bets, we can make a big, scary check-raise to push opponent off of a better or equal hand like AA/KK/AQ.

But here, with a $25 pot and our villain having $27 behind, we have to make a decision now whether we are willing to stack off or not.  Basically, if we plan to check/call the turn, we are almost forced to call off on the river.  So if we concede that we are getting it in either way, we might as well lead out to ensure that we get value from TT/JJ/AxKh.

I waffled back and forth on this one several times, but I end up feeling like the best move here is to lead out on the turn and call off if villain shoves.  And it so happens that that's what I did...
Hero bets $16, MP raises to $27.80 and is All-In, Hero calls $11.80

River: ($80.85) A (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $80.85 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed Q A (two pair, Aces and Queens) and LOST (-$39.80 NET)
MP showed 8 8 (three of a kind, Eights) and WON $77.85 (+$38.05 NET)

So I'm fine with my play, but clearly I misjudged my opponent's range, since I certainly didn't expect him to make a small 3-bet with 88.

H2)
I didn't have any stats at the time, but villain ended up 23/12/1.4 over 69 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: $71.75
MP: $81.65
Hero (CO): $50.75
BTN: $50
SB: $48.20
BB: $53.80
Pre-Flop: A J dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, BTN folds, SB calls $1.50, BB folds

Flop: ($4) 5 J 4 (2 Players)
SB bets $2.50, Hero raises to $6.50, SB calls $4

Turn: ($17) T (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, SB calls $8

River: ($33) 6 (2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero?

JT would make sense here, but I would expect JT to make itself known here, either by raising the turn or leading the river.  I know we can't completely discount that or a hand like 56 or even a set, but I think it is ultimately a mistake to check back and forego the opportunity to get more value from J-x hands.  I like making a small value bet, like $10-$13, and folding to pretty much any raise.  Ain't no J-x hand raising this river, there's no way I'm giving a random credit for a river bluff raise here.

But somehow I chickened out, which turned out to be a good thing...

...

Hero checks

Results: $33 Pot ($1.65 Rake)
Hero showed A J (a pair of Jacks) and LOST (-$16.25 NET)
SB showed Q Q (a pair of Queens) and WON $31.35 (+$15.10 NET)

Once again, I misjudged my opponent's range, thinking that there was no way he wouldn't 3-bet QQ+, and if he did slow play these hands PF, he would certainly make a raise somewhere in the hand.

But ultimately, I think this is a spot where, despite the good outcome, I made a mistake by checking.  The majority of the time, I'm passing up a big river value bet.

H3)
Villain was 29/6/5 over 35 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (SB): $33.83
BB: $14.56
UTG: $8.85
MP: $63.59
CO: $25
BTN: $31.14
Pre-Flop: T T dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, BTN raises to $1, Hero raises to $3.25, BB folds, BTN calls $2.25

Flop: ($6.75) 6 8 4 (2 Players)
Hero bets $4.50, BTN raises to $27.89 and is All-In,
Hero?

I guess it's pretty standard to call off here, but I wanted to see if anyone makes the fold here, just on the "find a better spot" principle or something similar. 

My line of thinking here is that there's no way the villain has a monster like a set or straight, since he wouldn't just ship it all in.  But Scazmatic makes a good point here - some villains really don't know any better than to shove it all in.  But in general, this is one of those spots where you should be more scared by a smaller raise (and much more likely to fold), while the big raise just doesn't make any sense if he has a monster.

I could be up against something like JJ or QQ, but it seems just as likely that I'm up against a pair + gutshot hand like 87/67/65/77/55, or even 99.  So I snap it off without much hesitation...
Hero calls $23.39

Turn: ($62.53) A (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($62.53) Q (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $62.53 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed T T (a pair of Tens) and LOST (-$31.14 NET)
BTN showed J J (a pair of Jacks) and WON $59.53 (+$28.39 NET)