River Raise Sizing

I ran into 2 similar spots in a recent session that have me wondering about my approach to river raises with strong hands. In both cases, against different opponents, I river the nuts and get led into with a PSB. Now this is where my reasoning and assumptions may start to falter. Smart poker players will often make big river bets, near pot-sized, with strong made hands, knowing that it is often perceived as bluffy ("Why bet so much with a monster? Don't you want to bet an amount that will get called?"). Well, there's that little bit of reverse psychology, but there's also the important details of that hand in question - What has my opponent done to reveal the relative strength of their hand, and based on that probable strength, how big of a bet can I get them to call?

If I know my opponent likes to make a PSB with a strong hand, then I should be inclined to make a hefty raise, knowing that it will be hard for my opponent to fold.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $50.75
BTN: $91.40
SB: $82.55
Hero (BB): $52.20
UTG: $50
MP: $23.45
Pre-Flop: 8 7 dealt to Hero (BB)
4 folds, SB raises to $1, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($2) T 2 J (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($2) 6 (2 Players)
SB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $2, SB calls $1.50

River: ($6) 9 (2 Players)
SB bets $5, Hero raises to $21,
...
...
So not only do I river a flush, but I river the immortal straight flush, which is extra lovely given that it so well disguised and likely to get action from big flushes. So I make a full pot raise and...
...
...
...
SB folds

Results: $16 Pot ($0.80 Rake)
Hero mucked 8 7 and WON $15.20 (+$7.20 NET)

I think I miss a couple of clues here. One is the PF min-raise, a likely sign that I'm not up against the sharpest of poker players. Not only does this make it more likely that he would call a smaller raise (say to $12-$14), but also that he might come over the top with any type of flush.

The second time around, against a different opponent, the line and situation are quite different...

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: $30.66
Hero (MP): $32.99
CO: $25.57
BTN: $31.53
SB: $25.10
BB: $25.76
Pre-Flop: 8 7 dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 3 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 6 2 5 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.20, BB calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.20) K (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

I could certainly 2-barrel here and likely take the pot down, but I'm willing to take a free card, and figure to get more action (if I hit) after taking a bet-check-bet line.

River: ($4.20) 9 (2 Players)
BB bets $4.20, Hero raises to $16,
...
...
Bingo once for the 9, and twice for the pot-sized lead. Now, given the line here, my opponent's range is pretty wide. There aren't a lot of monster hands out there, so the hands that I should be targeting for value are hands like K-x, and medium and small pocket pairs like 77/88/TT/JJ. Sets are much less likely given the action. So, a medium-sized raise is probably in order, somewhere along the lines of 2.5x-3x. Instead, I make it 4x....
...
...
...
BB folds

Results: $12.60 Pot ($0.63 Rake)
Hero mucked 8 7 and WON $11.97 (+$5.72 NET)

Any insights out there on how to approach these spots, or river raising in general?

Hindsight's 20/20, so we'll check in the next time I make a sad, small raise, and get called by the 2nd nuts. At least, the next time around, I hope to have fully considered my opponent and the situation.

Bluffcatcher Fail

Played a hand last 2 nights ago, and I've thought a lot about it since then, mainly because I wasn't thinking a lot about it while it was playing out.

I'm pretty sure I had a small amount of info on my opponent at the time, but it wasn't anything super-donkish, laggy, or nitty. Something in the middle.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BTN: $25.55
Hero (SB): $50
BB: $46.60
UTG: $56.95
CO: $50.50
Pre-Flop: A K dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1


Standard PF raise in blind battle
Flop: ($3) A T 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets $2, BB raises to $4.50, Hero calls $2.50


Flop is an automatic bet, since my hand is at the top of my range and I'm getting value from a ton of weaker hands that will call. Villain's raise means either monster (AT/A3/33), air, or one of really only 2 hands that I'm ahead of - AQ or AJ. I called, thinking it could elicit at least one more barrel from a worse hand. Should I have reraised?

Turn: ($12) 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $12, Hero calls $12

Okay, so I got my wish, another barrel. I have to say that I'm not entirely comfortable with the full pot sizing, but the 8 doesn't change anything. By calling here, I make it pretty clear that I am not going anywhere and have at least a decently strong A.

River: ($36) 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $28.60 and is All-In, Hero calls $28.60

Here comes the major breakdown. I've constructed for my opponent a pretty clear picture of the strength of my holding. His continued barreling therefore means that he either has 2-pair or better, or that he is trying to pull of a big multi-barrel bluff. My AK may as well be A2. For that fact, it may as well be T2, since I doubt he would turn a 2nd pair hand into a bluff. In other words, my hand is strictly a bluffcatcher. The strength of my kicker is irrelevant.

But that's the problem. Without much thought, I made the call, and I made it based on the strength of my kicker. Without realizing it, I was purely hoping that my opponent was bluffing. I was not so lucky.

Results: $93.20 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero mucked A K (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-$46.60 NET)
BB showed A T (two pair, Aces and Tens) and WON $90.20 (+$43.60 NET)

I chalk this loss up to 2 mistakes. One is a common theme here...overvaluing hands in blind battle situations. Been over this many times - one pair is still one pair, and I should not be stacking off in this manner just because it is a blind battle. The second mistake was not thinking through the hand. I saved that for the hours and days after this hand had ended. And here, I finally got my thoughts out. Next time, I'd like to be able to manage all of this before the hand ends and (bad) decisions are made.

Blind Battle Big Bets - Results

Results from the 2 blind battle hands from Tuesday.

Hand 1)
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $21.29
BTN: $20.46
SB: $24.25
Hero (BB): $45.56
UTG: $24.77
MP: $6.61
Pre-Flop: T A dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $0.25, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.60) A J A (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.25, Hero raises to $0.90, UTG calls $0.65

I raise the flop here with trip A's, good kicker, mostly to build a pot and get value from a J or weaker A. Since villain limped UTG, AJ is the only hand I am worried about. There are a ton more A-x hands in his range, and a lot of J's too.

Turn: ($2.40) A J A [ 8 ] (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $5, Hero calls $5

I check the turn, hoping to make my flop raise look like a one-and-done bluff, or else a weak J, insufficient to continue firing. The villain does something weird here, though, and fires 2x the pot. This is almost never a value-type hand, so I really don't think he can have a weak J here. That leaves bluffs and monsters. Now I'm only worried about AJ and A8. But since monsters might also include some A-x hands that I crush, I don't think I can fold here.

I can raise here to get value from a weaker A, but he'll probably fire the river with that hand anyway, and in case he is running a bluff, I figure my best shot is to leave him some rope and let him consider firing the river again.

River: ($12.40) A J A 8 [ K ] (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $18.62 and is All-In,
Hero?

So now it's 2 consecutive overbets. This is a really strong line, and I'm not sure I've ever seen it as a bluff before. Can I call here? Should I have played the turn differently?
...
...
Hero calls $18.62

Results: $49.64 Pot ($2.48 Rake)
Hero mucked T A (three of a kind, Aces) and LOST (-$24.77 NET)
UTG showed 8 8 (a full house, Eights full of Aces) and WON $47.16 (+$22.39 NET)

Villain hits a gross turn and works me over for the maximum. It's really hard to get away from my hand here, but perhaps I should have picked up that the big overbet was a shrewd attempt to maximize the value of his improbably monster. Is it too results-oriented to say so?

Hand 2)
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $25.51
BTN: $27.99
SB: $37.69
Hero (BB): $48.71
UTG: $16.40
MP: $85.74
Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (BB)
4 folds, SB raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.50) 5 5 J (2 Players)
SB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

After 3-betting PF, villain leads out for full pot. There are obviously a lot more J's than 5's in his range, and also some hands like 66-TT that might lead out in a similar way. I can raise and possibly get value from a QJ-AJ type hand, but I risk folding out medium pocket pairs on weaker J hands that are more likely to pay me off on later streets.

Turn: ($13.50) 5 5 J [ K ] (2 Players)
SB bets $13.50,
Hero?
...
...
Hero calls $13.50

River: ($40.50) 5 5 J K [ 7 ] (2 Players)
SB bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

This is a somewhat interesting street too. After leading for full pot 2 streets in a row, villain leads for the minimum, broadcasting serious doubt about the strength of his hand. I briefly considered a raise for value, but remembered that he may be slowing down here with a number of hands that I am still behind, like AK/KJ/KQ. So I just called.

Results: $41 Pot ($2.05 Rake)
SB showed J J (a full house, Jacks full of Fives) and WON $38.95 (+$18.45 NET)
Hero mucked Q Q (two pair, Queens and Fives) and LOST (-$20.50 NET)

Both of these hands are basically minor coolers, but my intention was not to vent about my crap luck in these spots. Rather, it was to demonstrate that a lot of caution should be taken when facing solid players making really big bets.

In hand 1, my opponent overbet the pot, knowing that it was likely that I was holding an A and would not be able to lay my hand down against his turned boat. This was a smart move to extract maximum value from a strong but not monster holding.

In hand 2, my opponent made a big bet, taking the risk that I might fold in order to build up a pot from OOP with a monster, and possibly to induce me to raise. You could argue that I should have folded the turn, but I feel confident that I lost the minimum in this spot. I was lucky that he tried to induce a bluff or value bet on the river, instead of just shoving it in, putting me in a wicked spot and possibly stacking me.