Thursday, April 9, 2009

Blind Battle Big Bets - Results

Results from the 2 blind battle hands from Tuesday.

Hand 1)
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $21.29
BTN: $20.46
SB: $24.25
Hero (BB): $45.56
UTG: $24.77
MP: $6.61
Pre-Flop: T A dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $0.25, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.60) A J A (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.25, Hero raises to $0.90, UTG calls $0.65

I raise the flop here with trip A's, good kicker, mostly to build a pot and get value from a J or weaker A. Since villain limped UTG, AJ is the only hand I am worried about. There are a ton more A-x hands in his range, and a lot of J's too.

Turn: ($2.40) A J A [ 8 ] (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $5, Hero calls $5

I check the turn, hoping to make my flop raise look like a one-and-done bluff, or else a weak J, insufficient to continue firing. The villain does something weird here, though, and fires 2x the pot. This is almost never a value-type hand, so I really don't think he can have a weak J here. That leaves bluffs and monsters. Now I'm only worried about AJ and A8. But since monsters might also include some A-x hands that I crush, I don't think I can fold here.

I can raise here to get value from a weaker A, but he'll probably fire the river with that hand anyway, and in case he is running a bluff, I figure my best shot is to leave him some rope and let him consider firing the river again.

River: ($12.40) A J A 8 [ K ] (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $18.62 and is All-In,
Hero?

So now it's 2 consecutive overbets. This is a really strong line, and I'm not sure I've ever seen it as a bluff before. Can I call here? Should I have played the turn differently?
...
...
Hero calls $18.62

Results: $49.64 Pot ($2.48 Rake)
Hero mucked T A (three of a kind, Aces) and LOST (-$24.77 NET)
UTG showed 8 8 (a full house, Eights full of Aces) and WON $47.16 (+$22.39 NET)

Villain hits a gross turn and works me over for the maximum. It's really hard to get away from my hand here, but perhaps I should have picked up that the big overbet was a shrewd attempt to maximize the value of his improbably monster. Is it too results-oriented to say so?

Hand 2)
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $25.51
BTN: $27.99
SB: $37.69
Hero (BB): $48.71
UTG: $16.40
MP: $85.74
Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (BB)
4 folds, SB raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.50) 5 5 J (2 Players)
SB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

After 3-betting PF, villain leads out for full pot. There are obviously a lot more J's than 5's in his range, and also some hands like 66-TT that might lead out in a similar way. I can raise and possibly get value from a QJ-AJ type hand, but I risk folding out medium pocket pairs on weaker J hands that are more likely to pay me off on later streets.

Turn: ($13.50) 5 5 J [ K ] (2 Players)
SB bets $13.50,
Hero?
...
...
Hero calls $13.50

River: ($40.50) 5 5 J K [ 7 ] (2 Players)
SB bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

This is a somewhat interesting street too. After leading for full pot 2 streets in a row, villain leads for the minimum, broadcasting serious doubt about the strength of his hand. I briefly considered a raise for value, but remembered that he may be slowing down here with a number of hands that I am still behind, like AK/KJ/KQ. So I just called.

Results: $41 Pot ($2.05 Rake)
SB showed J J (a full house, Jacks full of Fives) and WON $38.95 (+$18.45 NET)
Hero mucked Q Q (two pair, Queens and Fives) and LOST (-$20.50 NET)

Both of these hands are basically minor coolers, but my intention was not to vent about my crap luck in these spots. Rather, it was to demonstrate that a lot of caution should be taken when facing solid players making really big bets.

In hand 1, my opponent overbet the pot, knowing that it was likely that I was holding an A and would not be able to lay my hand down against his turned boat. This was a smart move to extract maximum value from a strong but not monster holding.

In hand 2, my opponent made a big bet, taking the risk that I might fold in order to build up a pot from OOP with a monster, and possibly to induce me to raise. You could argue that I should have folded the turn, but I feel confident that I lost the minimum in this spot. I was lucky that he tried to induce a bluff or value bet on the river, instead of just shoving it in, putting me in a wicked spot and possibly stacking me.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Hmmmm...... first hand makes sense. I don't get away from it either. It was a strange bet, though.

Second hand, I'm wondering, do you save money reraising flop? Now this is all speculative, because maybe he takes a completely different line with his full house if you reraised him on flop, but hear me out. First – to get it out of the way, you have a ton of fold equity here if you pop him up to $9, or let’s say even $12-$15 to push out the flush draw. With the hand he had, he **PROBABLY** just smooth calls a raise to $9. Then when Kh comes on turn let's assume he bets out just like he did. Since he calls that flop reraise, he most likely has a 5, made flush, KJ, JJ or AJ at that point, only one of which I’m beating. After my raise just got called, I can probably let it go with a paired board, an over card and even potential made flush, even though I have 2nd nut flush draw.

If he comes back over the top on flop, that's a tougher decision for me (and probably depends on how much he comes over you). Based on the topic of this post (villains playing monsters VERY aggressively) it’s the more relevant one. Negating a pure bluff, a re-reraise by him on flop tells me he has JJ, any 5 (perhaps A5, 45s or 56s), AJ, or *maybe* KJ (if he is a bad player), KK or AA (those last 2 prob repop you preflop though). How many of those hands are you beating? Again, you have the flush outs, but with the paired board, they aren’t as valuable. You can bail then, at that point.

I’m not sure you would have felt any better laying down those cards on the flop/turn not ever knowing what he really had, but I think you can narrow his range with the reraise on flop and it won’t cost you any more than it did (or less).

Scott

noldmax said...

In the second hand, I do think you can make an argument for raising the flop (if you think your opponent will pay you off with AJ-QJ), but I actually think it is a less effective action to take. We do want to consider the risk of bloating the pot with 1-pair, and we also we to extract value from weaker Js and middle pocket pairs.

Frankly, if I raise the flop and he comes over top, I'm probably stacking off. Which I should have done anyway, but my opponent gave me a free ride on the river.