I Don't Bluff

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The title to this post captures the key the my PLO turnaround over the past 4 months. It's pretty simple, but it's working well, so why mess with it? I've talked a couple of times here before about how optimism clouds the thinking of poker players and skews rational analysis and judgement. I found a much better term for it: optimism bias, or, even better, the valence effect.

The poker player's desire to win a hand overcomes his rational understanding of the likelihood of winnig the hand. As a result, we have all kinds of bad crying calls.

How do we exploit this tendency? Don't assume your opponents (especially unknowns) are bluffing, and do assume that your opponents will think that you are bluffing. Thus, bluff less, and bluff-catch less. Be rational, not emotional.

Although I mainly just wanted to talk about a key to beating $25PLO online, the concept does tie in loosely with this recent hand:

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
CO ($34.11)
Hero (Button) ($27.54)
SB ($60.66)
BB ($31.60)
UTG ($46.27)
MP ($55.82)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10s, Kd, 10c, 9h
3 folds, Hero bets $0.85, SB raises to $2.80, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.95

We can get into when to call 3-bets some other time (probably one of my biggest weaknesses). This is possibly a fold since I have no suits, but let's just move on, since it's aside from the point of this hand.

Flop: ($5.85) Kc, 4s, Jh (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($5.85) 6c (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, SB calls $4

I think it's good to bet here. I retake initiative and reduce the amount of guessing that I would otherwise be doing on the river. By which I mean that it takes a lot more strength for my opponent to check/call and then lead the river, than it would for him to lead out on the river after it checking through on the flop and turn.

When he calls, I'm probably not good, since I already expect him to have AAxx a lot. There aren't a whole lot of AQTx/QTxx type hands that wouldn't have led out on the flop with such good equity.

River: ($13.85) 7d (2 players)
SB checks, Hero?

So now the question becomes, can I shake him off of AAxx? The river completes some low straights, so it's at least a little bit scary. I bet the turn, so he may give me credit for K6. The problem is, by checking the flop, it seems unlikely to my opponent that I would have a stronger hand like KK/JJ/KJ.

Nevertheless, it's PLO, and you can't call 2 big barrels with just 1 pair, right?

Hero bets $11, SB calls $11

Total pot: $35.85 Rake: $1.79
Results:
Hero had 10s, Kd, 10c, 9h (one pair, Kings).
SB had Ad, Ah, 5s, 10h (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: SB won $34.06

The Valence Effect in full display. But really, this is one of those times where you just have to admit defeat, since it can be really hard to make people fold in PLO. This is especially true when you are only betting 2 streets, and not threatening to bet all 3 streets and potentially stack someone.