So I'm mired in a downswing right now. It's looking like December redux - start out with a boom and give it all back really quickly. I've had 5 straight losing sessions, all for at least 2 buy-ins.
Seems like a good time to take a look at a problem area. The one I want to focus on is C-betting. I haven't figured out C-betting in PLO yet. I think I'm still holding on to some NLHE habits that are -EV in PLO, namely C-betting too much and too indiscriminately.
I'm going to save a more complete discussion on this issue for after I have fitered through some data in my HEM database. I plan to analyze whether I'm making money on my C-bets or bleeding it away. I also plan to talk about what kind of flops to C-bet and how my opponent's stats/tendencies should affect my C-bet frequency.
My specific plan is to apply a filter - what is the outcome for hands when I raise PF and then lead out on the flop? Am I losing overall when I do this?
After that, we can add more variables to the filter: How profitable is C-betting when I completely whiff the flop? When I catch a big draw? When I catch a small draw? When I flop 2-pair? When I flop just 1-pair?
And then maybe I'll look at the tone and texture of the flop - What kinds of flops elicit the most folds to C-bets? What kind elicit the most check-raises? Some of this may be intuitive (A-high raggy flops elicit folds, middle-connected cards elicit check-raises), but I want to see if mapped out for my actual experience.
So, I'll probably take a few posts to go through some of this data. Hopefully it doesn't get too terribly boring. And just maybe, we'll uncover some unconventional wisdom.
3 comments:
"My specific plan is to apply a filter - what is the outcome for hands when I raise PF and then lead out on the flop? Am I losing overall when I do this?"
I think you're still playing 50nl, so I must comment here, as having played quite a few hands at this level: When you raise PF and lead the flop, situations depending, the VAST majority of the time, you will take it down on the flop. I think the particular flops you can take down easy are A high & K high. Most people assume a raise to mean AK.
However, you need to be very aware of who you are leading against. If it is a solid reg, then the proper move for a donk bet (lead bet) generally is to raise because he knows that you missed your hand the great majority of the time (particularly if you have LAGgy stats yourself). You may want to consider 3betting his raise, which gets into the leveling war of you know that he has nothing as well but you know he doesn't want to play a large pot, etc. I'm assuming this is PARTICULARLY true in 6max, which is what you play.
I'm curious what you find, though, as well. (Actually, more curious as to the methods of filter in HEM - I'm in the process of forcing myself to convert from PT3 -> HEM).
Meister,
Thanks for the feedback. I think I misled you. I'm wanting to analyze C-betting in the PLO context, which is substantially different from NLHE. In NLHE, you can get away with C-betting a much higher % just because your opponent is so much more likely to have missed the flop. So naturally, when players move from NLHE to PLO, they tend to C-bet too frequently.
The other consideration is that with the proliferation of draws in PLO, checking tends to be a more concrete sign of weakness, since made hands are so often vulnerable and need to bet for protection (i.e., it is more dangerous in PLO to give free cards). This is the primary reason, IMO, that position is so much more important in PLO than NLHE. This fact also makes floating arguably more effective in PLO - if the C-bettor checks the turn after betting the flop, you can very often steal the pot with a bet. And if you find that you are being floated frequently, you will want to cut back your C-bet frequency (unless you prefer the more maniacal approach of check-raising the floater after you check the turn!).
What is consistent between PLO and NLHE is the importance of opponent's tendencies and how to counter them. If your opponent plays fit-or-fold, you should C-bet a high %. If you opponent is float-happy, you cut back your C-bet % while also mixing in some 2-barrels. If your opponent is competent and tricky, you have to stay balanced and mix in some traps and trick-plays of your own.
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