C-betting in PLO

Ok, so I started creating some filters to look at how my current PLO C-bet rate is working out for me. I decided to use just the last 3 months of play as my sample space. I've played ~15K hands over that period, which is a decent enough sample size to extract some useful info.

My first simple filter looks at all hands where I am the PFR (single-raise only) and the C-bettor (first to bet the flop). The results here were a little vexing - in hands where I C-bet, I am overall a big winner:


Perhaps I'm a bit biased by my recent struggles, but I expected this to be worse. It makes some intuitive sense to see profits here - C-betting does result in winning a lot of uncontested pots, and of course, when you raise and flop a big hand, this filter should capture all of the occasions where you extract value and win big pots. But the amount of winnings is so high that I started to wonder what scenarios account for the money that I'm losing...

So now, although I still plan to do some detailed filtering on C-bet situations, I also plan to look at other scenarios (limping, playing from blinds, cold-calling raises, playing 3-bet pots) and see if I can identify spots where I might be leaking pretty badly. Basically, there have to be some situations where I am a big loser which counteract how much I am winning in C-bet spots.

But we'll get there in a later post. In this post, I'll lay out some results based on what kind of hand I hold on the flop. We'll start with the dregs - flopping no hand, no draw. The results of C-betting these spots:


I've always held the belief that this spot requires betting since my pot equity is so poor - basically, betting is the only way to win. The results here indicate that it might not be worth it. Missing so badly may increase the odds that my opponent(s) did hit a piece. But it's a mistake to draw blanket conclusions. I am almost inevitably losing money in pots that I give up on, so C-betting could still be better than forgoing when I have very little equity. Perhaps the key here is to take one stab and then surrender, and to resist the inclination to barrel off.

This next image shows my results for flopping just a single pair (including overpairs) with no draw:


The results here are better, probably aided by the times that I hold strong overpairs. These flops are also good candidates for checking back. I have decent equity but can also improve, and having just a single pair doesn't necessarily merit the protection of a C-bet.

And now we get to the spots where I flop well - the first one is 2-pair (plus any draw), and the second is trips or better:



Clearly, these are the money-making spots, but it's dangerous to conclude that these are the only flops you should be betting. I'm sure there's money to be made without flopping big hands. It's just a matter off improving my ability to assess what the good spots are.

So next, I'll filter for flop texture and see if there's anything interesting there.