A ton has already been said on the topic of the new Rush Poker format on Full Tilt, but it's still in it's early infancy, so it's hard to imagine that a whole lot has really been figured out. So far I can say that there is a lot that I really like about it.
There is, foremost, the sheer innovation of it. I mean, the format of poker has never been tinkered with so dramatically in my time playing the game. Whatever game you happened to be playing online, you could always imagine playing the same game live. But with Rush Poker, they've invented a variation of the game that couldn't be feasibly reproduced in a live setting. They've created their own truly original form of poker.
As far as play is concerned, they have basically reproduced everything that makes multi-tabling so attractive - high volume of hands and short downtime between hands - and added a few little benefits that are specific to the format - instant table selection at a guaranteed-to-be-full table.
So now the benefits of multi-tabling are available to all players, which leaves a critical question floating in the air - whither the single-tabling donks and their 80/10/1.0 stat lines? These are the guys that we multi-tablers have been feasting on for years - the ones who sit down and open up one table and, either out of boredom or cluelessness, play way too many bad hands and spew money as a result. It seems like it will be obvious enough, even to these guys, that it doesn't make sense for them to play all of those garbage hands anymore. Could they possibly still be producing 50+ VPIP numbers at the Rush tables? Of course there's a lot more to a donk than just poor PF hand selection...but it's certainly a big part of what makes them so exploitable. Will the end result be that the Rush games are tighter and tougher than the standard tables? Seems reasonable to think that they will be tighter, but whether they are tougher remains to be seen.
I started an analysis of my HEM statistics last week and then starting playing winning PLO again. I was inspired to do that analysis when I was slumping, and now all I want to do is play play play. But it would be foolish to ignore the value of such an analysis, so I am committing here to an ongoing look at my numbers and what they might mean. Sorry if it's a boring slog, but I plan to dump it out here for my own benefit as soon as I can gather it all together.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Brief Interlude...
...to reflect on the cruelty inherent in this game:
Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (CO) ($80.25)
Button ($74.75)
SB ($49.40)
BB ($118.80)
UTG ($111)
MP ($53.65)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 5
, 8, A, 8
1 fold, MP bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40, Button calls $1.40, 1 fold, BB calls $0.90
Flop: ($6.45) 3
, 8, 7
(4 players)
BB bets $6.45, MP calls $6.45, Hero raises to $32.25, Button raises to $73.25 (All-In), BB raises to $117.30 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls $46.50 (All-In)
Turn: ($243.65) 8 (3 players, 3 all-in) <--- DQB!
River: ($243.65) 10 (3 players, 3 all-in) <--- It always takes a second to set in...
Total pot: $243.65 Rake: $3
Results:
Button had 5, 9, 7, 6 (straight flush, ten high).
BB had 7, 9, J, A (straight, Jack high).
Hero had 5, 8, A, 8 (four of a kind, eights).
Outcome: Button won $229.65, Hero won $11 <--- booby prize (side pot)
Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (CO) ($80.25)
Button ($74.75)
SB ($49.40)
BB ($118.80)
UTG ($111)
MP ($53.65)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 5
, 8, A, 81 fold, MP bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40, Button calls $1.40, 1 fold, BB calls $0.90
Flop: ($6.45) 3
, 8, 7 (4 players)BB bets $6.45, MP calls $6.45, Hero raises to $32.25, Button raises to $73.25 (All-In), BB raises to $117.30 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls $46.50 (All-In)
Turn: ($243.65) 8
(3 players, 3 all-in) <--- DQB!River: ($243.65) 10
(3 players, 3 all-in) <--- It always takes a second to set in...Total pot: $243.65 Rake: $3
Results:
Button had 5
, 9, 7, 6 (straight flush, ten high).BB had 7
, 9, J, A (straight, Jack high).Hero had 5
, 8, A, 8 (four of a kind, eights).Outcome: Button won $229.65, Hero won $11 <--- booby prize (side pot)
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
C-betting in PLO
Ok, so I started creating some filters to look at how my current PLO C-bet rate is working out for me. I decided to use just the last 3 months of play as my sample space. I've played ~15K hands over that period, which is a decent enough sample size to extract some useful info.
My first simple filter looks at all hands where I am the PFR (single-raise only) and the C-bettor (first to bet the flop). The results here were a little vexing - in hands where I C-bet, I am overall a big winner:
Perhaps I'm a bit biased by my recent struggles, but I expected this to be worse. It makes some intuitive sense to see profits here - C-betting does result in winning a lot of uncontested pots, and of course, when you raise and flop a big hand, this filter should capture all of the occasions where you extract value and win big pots. But the amount of winnings is so high that I started to wonder what scenarios account for the money that I'm losing...
So now, although I still plan to do some detailed filtering on C-bet situations, I also plan to look at other scenarios (limping, playing from blinds, cold-calling raises, playing 3-bet pots) and see if I can identify spots where I might be leaking pretty badly. Basically, there have to be some situations where I am a big loser which counteract how much I am winning in C-bet spots.
But we'll get there in a later post. In this post, I'll lay out some results based on what kind of hand I hold on the flop. We'll start with the dregs - flopping no hand, no draw. The results of C-betting these spots:
I've always held the belief that this spot requires betting since my pot equity is so poor - basically, betting is the only way to win. The results here indicate that it might not be worth it. Missing so badly may increase the odds that my opponent(s) did hit a piece. But it's a mistake to draw blanket conclusions. I am almost inevitably losing money in pots that I give up on, so C-betting could still be better than forgoing when I have very little equity. Perhaps the key here is to take one stab and then surrender, and to resist the inclination to barrel off.
This next image shows my results for flopping just a single pair (including overpairs) with no draw:
The results here are better, probably aided by the times that I hold strong overpairs. These flops are also good candidates for checking back. I have decent equity but can also improve, and having just a single pair doesn't necessarily merit the protection of a C-bet.
And now we get to the spots where I flop well - the first one is 2-pair (plus any draw), and the second is trips or better:
Clearly, these are the money-making spots, but it's dangerous to conclude that these are the only flops you should be betting. I'm sure there's money to be made without flopping big hands. It's just a matter off improving my ability to assess what the good spots are.
So next, I'll filter for flop texture and see if there's anything interesting there.
My first simple filter looks at all hands where I am the PFR (single-raise only) and the C-bettor (first to bet the flop). The results here were a little vexing - in hands where I C-bet, I am overall a big winner:
Perhaps I'm a bit biased by my recent struggles, but I expected this to be worse. It makes some intuitive sense to see profits here - C-betting does result in winning a lot of uncontested pots, and of course, when you raise and flop a big hand, this filter should capture all of the occasions where you extract value and win big pots. But the amount of winnings is so high that I started to wonder what scenarios account for the money that I'm losing...
So now, although I still plan to do some detailed filtering on C-bet situations, I also plan to look at other scenarios (limping, playing from blinds, cold-calling raises, playing 3-bet pots) and see if I can identify spots where I might be leaking pretty badly. Basically, there have to be some situations where I am a big loser which counteract how much I am winning in C-bet spots.
But we'll get there in a later post. In this post, I'll lay out some results based on what kind of hand I hold on the flop. We'll start with the dregs - flopping no hand, no draw. The results of C-betting these spots:
I've always held the belief that this spot requires betting since my pot equity is so poor - basically, betting is the only way to win. The results here indicate that it might not be worth it. Missing so badly may increase the odds that my opponent(s) did hit a piece. But it's a mistake to draw blanket conclusions. I am almost inevitably losing money in pots that I give up on, so C-betting could still be better than forgoing when I have very little equity. Perhaps the key here is to take one stab and then surrender, and to resist the inclination to barrel off.
This next image shows my results for flopping just a single pair (including overpairs) with no draw:
The results here are better, probably aided by the times that I hold strong overpairs. These flops are also good candidates for checking back. I have decent equity but can also improve, and having just a single pair doesn't necessarily merit the protection of a C-bet.
And now we get to the spots where I flop well - the first one is 2-pair (plus any draw), and the second is trips or better:
Clearly, these are the money-making spots, but it's dangerous to conclude that these are the only flops you should be betting. I'm sure there's money to be made without flopping big hands. It's just a matter off improving my ability to assess what the good spots are.
So next, I'll filter for flop texture and see if there's anything interesting there.
Too Much C-betting?
So I'm mired in a downswing right now. It's looking like December redux - start out with a boom and give it all back really quickly. I've had 5 straight losing sessions, all for at least 2 buy-ins.
Seems like a good time to take a look at a problem area. The one I want to focus on is C-betting. I haven't figured out C-betting in PLO yet. I think I'm still holding on to some NLHE habits that are -EV in PLO, namely C-betting too much and too indiscriminately.
I'm going to save a more complete discussion on this issue for after I have fitered through some data in my HEM database. I plan to analyze whether I'm making money on my C-bets or bleeding it away. I also plan to talk about what kind of flops to C-bet and how my opponent's stats/tendencies should affect my C-bet frequency.
My specific plan is to apply a filter - what is the outcome for hands when I raise PF and then lead out on the flop? Am I losing overall when I do this?
After that, we can add more variables to the filter: How profitable is C-betting when I completely whiff the flop? When I catch a big draw? When I catch a small draw? When I flop 2-pair? When I flop just 1-pair?
And then maybe I'll look at the tone and texture of the flop - What kinds of flops elicit the most folds to C-bets? What kind elicit the most check-raises? Some of this may be intuitive (A-high raggy flops elicit folds, middle-connected cards elicit check-raises), but I want to see if mapped out for my actual experience.
So, I'll probably take a few posts to go through some of this data. Hopefully it doesn't get too terribly boring. And just maybe, we'll uncover some unconventional wisdom.
Seems like a good time to take a look at a problem area. The one I want to focus on is C-betting. I haven't figured out C-betting in PLO yet. I think I'm still holding on to some NLHE habits that are -EV in PLO, namely C-betting too much and too indiscriminately.
I'm going to save a more complete discussion on this issue for after I have fitered through some data in my HEM database. I plan to analyze whether I'm making money on my C-bets or bleeding it away. I also plan to talk about what kind of flops to C-bet and how my opponent's stats/tendencies should affect my C-bet frequency.
My specific plan is to apply a filter - what is the outcome for hands when I raise PF and then lead out on the flop? Am I losing overall when I do this?
After that, we can add more variables to the filter: How profitable is C-betting when I completely whiff the flop? When I catch a big draw? When I catch a small draw? When I flop 2-pair? When I flop just 1-pair?
And then maybe I'll look at the tone and texture of the flop - What kinds of flops elicit the most folds to C-bets? What kind elicit the most check-raises? Some of this may be intuitive (A-high raggy flops elicit folds, middle-connected cards elicit check-raises), but I want to see if mapped out for my actual experience.
So, I'll probably take a few posts to go through some of this data. Hopefully it doesn't get too terribly boring. And just maybe, we'll uncover some unconventional wisdom.
Monday, January 11, 2010
2010 Goals
Goal time again. Kind of a tired blogger trope, but it's still valuable if you plan to use it as a motivational tool.
4. Withdraw 30% of my profits for each $500 in profit earned.
This is more like a rule than a goal. But I guess I need at least $500 to make it happen, right?
5. Climb my bankroll up at least $2000 and start playing 100PLO/NL.
I guess this represents my real money-making goal. And given that I'll have to make a much higher monthly win rate than I currently make to hit it, it's a reasonably tough goal. Which makes it a good one.
The biggest question mark for me is what game will I play? I will definitely be starting out with PLO, but it's hard to say whether or not I'll wear out on it and want to get back into NLHE again. I'll try to make my goals general enough to encompass whatever game I end up playing.
Okay, finally a reasonably tough goal. This one will require that I really play consistently well. Well enough to overcome variance and fight back from tough stretches to keep my monethly totals in the positive.
Quantifiable Goals:
1. Don't go broke (based on my online BR as of Jan 1).
I consider this to be very modest, since I am starting with a good bankroll for the 25PLO and 50PLO that I'm playing. The real test of this goal is to drop down in levels if I see my roll taking a major hit.
2. Play at least 2500 hands each month.
This is another relatively easy goal, seeing how manageable it was in 2009. But I need this goal to keep me going through 2010.
Okay, finally a reasonably tough goal. This one will require that I really play consistently well. Well enough to overcome variance and fight back from tough stretches to keep my monethly totals in the positive.
4. Withdraw 30% of my profits for each $500 in profit earned.
This is more like a rule than a goal. But I guess I need at least $500 to make it happen, right?
5. Climb my bankroll up at least $2000 and start playing 100PLO/NL.
I guess this represents my real money-making goal. And given that I'll have to make a much higher monthly win rate than I currently make to hit it, it's a reasonably tough goal. Which makes it a good one.
6. Keep accurate records of live play.
Modest goal, just need to execute.
Modest goal, just need to execute.
Other Minor Goals
1. Quit when tilting.
2. Have at least 1 $250+ MTT score.
3. Put together another WSOP tourney challenge.
1. Quit when tilting.
2. Have at least 1 $250+ MTT score.
3. Put together another WSOP tourney challenge.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
2009 Goal Review
First a couple of year-end charts. Here's my NLHE chart for the year:
Final Tallies:
PLO: +$516.11
NLHE (online): -$7.40
NLHE (live): +$1002
Rackback (all games): +$788.80
O divine rakeback! How you deceive us into thinking that you are some sort of magical bonus, some nuggety treat delivered out of the goodness of Full Tilt's soul.
But before we all start writing poetry and odes to glory of rakeback, I'll post one more number, representing the amount of money I payed Full Tilt for the right to play online this past year. This is my total rake paid (rakeback already subtracted out) - $2132.68.
I pulled my list of 2009 goals up the other day, having pretty much forgotten about them. I think I forgot about them early in the year when I was going through my NLHE downswing - around that time, I had resolved to accomplishing none of my goals, and I had no interest in punishing myself by referring back to them. So I hardly expected to look back at the end of the year and see that I had actually done a pretty good job of reaching my goals. Here's the breakdown:
3. Finish each month + in profits.
Failure. I underestimated the variance in the game (both NLHE and PLO) and overestimated my ability to play enough hands to climb back up from downswings within a month timeframe. I'm not sure I would set this kind of goal again - a better goal would be to try to limit the number of unprofitable months to just 1 or 2.
4. Withdraw 30% of my profits for each $500 in profit earned (assuming I earn it!).
Success. Although I didn't get a chance to make a withdrawal until September when I won $1k in a PLO MTT. And since then, I've won enough to make another withdrawal but haven't done it yet. So I need to make one more withdrawal to be true to this goal carrying over into 2010.
5. Get my online bankroll up to $2500 and move up to 100NL by the end of the year.
Part success, part failure. Since I shifted over to PLO, I have no intention of playing 100NL in the rusty NLHE shape that I'm in. But after tallying all of my 2009 winnings, I'm pretty close to that $2500 number. So let's mark it down as halfway accomplished - bankroll mark reached, but stake transition declined.
6. Keep accurate records of live play.
Success. Or partial success, since I didn't start keeping record of my live poker results until March. But I have everything since then, and I'm pleased to know that live NLHE is a lucrative venture for me.
Vague Goals:
1. Reduce frequency of crying calls.
Overall, I improved in this regard. If anything, I fold too much now and am susceptible to bluffs.
2. Quit when tilting.
I guess I did okay here - I'm aided by the relatively short sessions I tend to play, which prevent me from chasing losses for a long time after going on tilt.
3. Make at least one biggish score in an MTT. Big meaning maybe $300+?? Hard to set MTT goals since they are hard to work into my schedule.
Success! Unexpected too, since I played very few MTTs. But I had a great run in a PLO tourney back in September, and won well more than the $300 goal that I set.
4. Put together another SNG challenge.
This didn't happen, but we had the Nold WSOP Challenge, which was a blast and which I plan to host again this year.
So there you go, a solid poker year for me, and a good number of goals reached. I'll be back later this week with some modifed goals for 2010.
This seems almost comical in retrospect. I played far more NLHE in the first half of the year - by October I had moved almost exclusively to PLO - and I guess I just don't remember sucking so bad at the start of the year. But I'm certainly happy that I managed a comeback, arriving at breakeven just in time to shift my focus.
And it's hard to argue, results-wise, with my decision to switch over:
Final Tallies:
PLO: +$516.11
NLHE (online): -$7.40
NLHE (live): +$1002
Rackback (all games): +$788.80
O divine rakeback! How you deceive us into thinking that you are some sort of magical bonus, some nuggety treat delivered out of the goodness of Full Tilt's soul.
But before we all start writing poetry and odes to glory of rakeback, I'll post one more number, representing the amount of money I payed Full Tilt for the right to play online this past year. This is my total rake paid (rakeback already subtracted out) - $2132.68.
I pulled my list of 2009 goals up the other day, having pretty much forgotten about them. I think I forgot about them early in the year when I was going through my NLHE downswing - around that time, I had resolved to accomplishing none of my goals, and I had no interest in punishing myself by referring back to them. So I hardly expected to look back at the end of the year and see that I had actually done a pretty good job of reaching my goals. Here's the breakdown:
Quantifiable Goals:
1. Don't go broke (based on my online BR as of Jan 1).
Success, although I believe I was down within my last $100 somewhere in the March timeframe. But I dropped down to 25NL and managed to climb slowly upwards.
2. Play at least 2500 hands each month.
Success. I didn't ever really have a problem with this goal. Although I had some busy stretches during the year, it turned out that my obsession was strong enough to keep me playing even when free time was hard to come by.
3. Finish each month + in profits.
Failure. I underestimated the variance in the game (both NLHE and PLO) and overestimated my ability to play enough hands to climb back up from downswings within a month timeframe. I'm not sure I would set this kind of goal again - a better goal would be to try to limit the number of unprofitable months to just 1 or 2.
4. Withdraw 30% of my profits for each $500 in profit earned (assuming I earn it!).
Success. Although I didn't get a chance to make a withdrawal until September when I won $1k in a PLO MTT. And since then, I've won enough to make another withdrawal but haven't done it yet. So I need to make one more withdrawal to be true to this goal carrying over into 2010.
5. Get my online bankroll up to $2500 and move up to 100NL by the end of the year.
Part success, part failure. Since I shifted over to PLO, I have no intention of playing 100NL in the rusty NLHE shape that I'm in. But after tallying all of my 2009 winnings, I'm pretty close to that $2500 number. So let's mark it down as halfway accomplished - bankroll mark reached, but stake transition declined.
6. Keep accurate records of live play.
Success. Or partial success, since I didn't start keeping record of my live poker results until March. But I have everything since then, and I'm pleased to know that live NLHE is a lucrative venture for me.
Vague Goals:
1. Reduce frequency of crying calls.
Overall, I improved in this regard. If anything, I fold too much now and am susceptible to bluffs.
2. Quit when tilting.
I guess I did okay here - I'm aided by the relatively short sessions I tend to play, which prevent me from chasing losses for a long time after going on tilt.
3. Make at least one biggish score in an MTT. Big meaning maybe $300+?? Hard to set MTT goals since they are hard to work into my schedule.
Success! Unexpected too, since I played very few MTTs. But I had a great run in a PLO tourney back in September, and won well more than the $300 goal that I set.
4. Put together another SNG challenge.
This didn't happen, but we had the Nold WSOP Challenge, which was a blast and which I plan to host again this year.
So there you go, a solid poker year for me, and a good number of goals reached. I'll be back later this week with some modifed goals for 2010.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
December
Back from a holiday disappearance, during which I really didn't play too much. There have been some PLO ideas swimming in my head, but I'm still working a lot out at the online tables.
As for December, it was a bit of a wild month - a killer streak to start off the month, followed by a massive swoon, followed by a comeback marked by luck and suckouts. As a result, I ended up with a decent winning month, but a big gap between profits and EV (over $200). So, it was hard to really think that I played that well.
As for December, it was a bit of a wild month - a killer streak to start off the month, followed by a massive swoon, followed by a comeback marked by luck and suckouts. As a result, I ended up with a decent winning month, but a big gap between profits and EV (over $200). So, it was hard to really think that I played that well.
PLO: +$149.44 (EV -$66.30)
NLHE (live): +$265
A solid month to close out the year, and there's nothing like a hot streak to keep the fever alive (cue brutal EV downswing!). So I don't guess I'll be getting away from PLO at the start of 2010.
I'll be pulling together some 2009 year-end results and doing a goal analysis as soon as I get a chance, so look for that shortly.
A solid month to close out the year, and there's nothing like a hot streak to keep the fever alive (cue brutal EV downswing!). So I don't guess I'll be getting away from PLO at the start of 2010.
I'll be pulling together some 2009 year-end results and doing a goal analysis as soon as I get a chance, so look for that shortly.
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