Optimistic Misdonkification

That's a phrase I just invented for when you have a temporary lapse in sound poker judgement, characterized by optimistically assuming that your opponent is a donkey, so that you can justify making a really bad call. It also happens to be a really bad leak in my game.

I looked back over my weekend sessions, which added up to small loss, and identified Optimistic Misdonkification as the difference between red and black. Here are 2 of the bigger hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: $50
MP: $68.90
CO: $26.70
BTN: $20.80
Hero (SB): $55.35
BB: $24.80
Pre-Flop: 6 4 dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, Hero calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

This is a fold against 1 or 2 villains, but I don't mind it in a 4-way or better pot.

Flop: ($8.75) 5 K J (5 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP bets $6, 2 folds, Hero calls $6, BB folds

Turn: ($20.75) K (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP checks

River: ($20.75) 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $9, MP raises to $30, Hero calls $21

This is a pretty easy value bet, but I think it has to be a bet-fold spot. I do think there's always a small chance that I could be facing a villain capable of raising AK for value here, hoping that I'm holding a weaker K-x. But most opponents will call here with any K after the flush comes in. That leaves the raising range as monsters (KJ/JJ/55) that got there on the turn, and drawing hands that got there on the river (any 2 big spades, 77). When I call here, I'm really just praying that my opponent is bad enough to be ignoring the flush card and raising AK cause he thinks it's the nuts. And when you go and assume that your opponent is a donkey, it often, ironically, makes YOU the donkey.

Results: $80.75 Pot ($3 Rake)
MP showed T Q (a flush, King high) and WON $77.75 (+$40 NET)
Hero mucked 6 4 (a flush, King high) and LOST (-$37.75 NET)

So that one was a $21 blunder. This one doesn't cost quite as much, but still burns. I didn't really have any stats on the villain.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
SB: $50.25
Hero (BB): $81.85
UTG: $36.10
BTN: $68.75
Pre-Flop: 9 A dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG raises to $1.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) A K 5 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($7.25) 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $5, Hero calls $5

Here's where it gets questionable. I guess I'm giving him credit for either a 2-barrel bluff or a light second barrel with a worse A-rag hand. You know how those donkeys just loooove their aces! Yep, folding here is probably fine, without more info on opponent.

River: ($17.25) 6 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6

So let's say villain makes a big river bet. Well then his range is pretty heavily polarized, and although it's unlikely that he's making a 3-barrel bluff, I at least can consider the possibility. But here he bets small, looking very interested in squeezing some final value out of a strong holding. A post-oak bluff? I don't think so. But here I come along all Pollyanna star-bright running my fingers through my long yellow curls, smiling wide to yammer - "By golly, he's just got to be firing 3 barrels with A-8 here!"

Results: $29.25 Pot ($1.45 Rake)
Hero mucked 9 A (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-$14.50 NET)
UTG showed 5 5 (three of a kind, Fives) and WON $27.80 (+$13.30 NET)