Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Blind Battle Big Bets

Two hands, both blind battles, and both times facing pot or bigger bets. How to interpret and how to react?

Hand 1)
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $21.29
BTN: $20.46
SB: $24.25
Hero (BB): $45.56
UTG: $24.77
MP: $6.61
Pre-Flop: T A dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $0.25, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.60) A J A (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.25, Hero raises to $0.90, UTG calls $0.65

I raise the flop here with trip A's, good kicker, mostly to build a pot and get value from a J or weaker A. Since villain limped UTG, AJ is the only hand I am worried about. There are a ton more A-x hands in his range, and a lot of J's too.

Turn: ($2.40) A J A [ 8 ] (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $5, Hero calls $5


I check the turn, hoping to make my flop raise look like a one-and-done bluff, or else a weak J, insufficient to continue firing. The villain does something weird here, though, and fires 2x the pot. This is almost never a value-type hand, so I really don't think he can have a weak J here. That leaves bluffs and monsters. Now I'm only worried about AJ and A8. But since monsters might also include some A-x hands that I crush, I don't think I can fold here.


I can raise here to get value from a weaker A, but he'll probably fire the river with that hand anyway, and in case he is running a bluff, I figure my best shot is to leave him some rope and let him consider firing the river again.

River: ($12.40) A J A 8 [ K ] (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $18.62 and is All-In,
Hero?

So now it's 2 consecutive overbets. This is a really strong line, and I'm not sure I've ever seen it as a bluff before. Can I call here? Should I have played the turn differently?

Hand 2)
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $25.51
BTN: $27.99
SB: $37.69
Hero (BB): $48.71
UTG: $16.40
MP: $85.74
Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (BB)
4 folds, SB raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.50) 5 5 J (2 Players)
SB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

After 3-betting PF, villain leads out for full pot. There are obviously a lot more J's than 5's in his range, and also some hands like 66-TT that might lead out in a similar way. I can raise and possibly get value from a QJ-AJ type hand, but I risk folding out medium pocket pairs on weaker J hands that are more likely to pay me off on later streets.

Turn: ($13.50) 5 5 J [ K ] (2 Players)
SB bets $13.50,
Hero?

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

On that first hand, I think JJ, AQ and AK are all possibles (although less AK) on flop then turn. A lot of folks don't raise from UTG with JJ/AQ and will futz around with AK to hide their hand. Maybe 88, 99, 1010 and he is willing to float the flop and push you off if you show weakness on the turn (which you did). The overbet is confusing though, you are right.

I don't think he makes that turn bet with JJ or AJ unless he has seen you try to make a hero call before, or he has a read on you otherwise, so that's **probably** out. Honestly, I think he's prob a bad player and got a pocket pair with a board that paired aces and would rather push in so he won't have to call. Any reads up to that point? I probably don't get away from that hand since I have him covered 2x anyway (that's the tourney player in me - although tourney player in me pushes him in on turn). If he has an A at that point, I bet mine is better. If I see a JJ, A8 or better A there -- I'm surprised, but pat the table, nh and well played because I called your overbet like you wanted me to.

On the second hand, why not reraise flop? You push out AK there (or KQ). It's not a true c-bet by villain since you reraised him pre-flop, but he could certainly just be taking the 1/3 chance you didn't hit. He is raising with nothing on that flop a lot and a reraise may win you hand right there. Reraise followed by call/rereraise and you know you are up against something - just a call and you aren't sure. I fold on turn unless you have a read. He could have Kx in a SB/BB matchup.

Scott

Anonymous said...

2 corrections....

First hand - You may be seeing 88 there too on first hand. I would be surprised, so bunch it in with A8, better A and JJ. If he flips over KK there, make a note. Those that limp under the gun with KK, though, don't strike me as very good players, typically.

Second hand - I meant 2/3 chance you missed, of course. Add to that the board paired, and I definitely raise him on flop because I bet he has an A or K in his hand, and I want him to pay for more cards.

Anonymous said...

Hand 1: I think you have to call on the river. If he has a stronger Ace then you, then he just played it pretty weird. AJ isn't making that big of a bet on the turn or river. Same goes for AK or AQ. Those hands would have to feel like they're WAY ahead and would make value bets, not overbets. I put the villain on one of two possible hands: a turned flush draw that missed on the river, or a Q-10 that just rivered a 4-outer against you. But you gotsta call.

Hand 2: I can't really make an argument for folding here. There's a pretty good chance the villain has something like AJ, QJ, JT, etc and you're still ahead. Even if he turned the King, then you still have 11 outs on the river to win the hand. You're only drawing dead if he turned the nut flush and if he did that, would he bet the pot? You both have big enough stacks, that I would just call on the turn and then re-evaluate on the river. By calling two PSB's, if he bets again on the river then you're probably beat.

Hef

noldmax said...

Scott, I don't know much about UTG, but I think we can strongly discount AK/AQ/JJ. In 6-max games, you will almost always see these hands being opened. An UTG limp is much more likely to be a speculative hand like a PP, something like AJo/KJo or a suited connector....marginal enough that a lot of players won't open raise UTG, and too enticing to just fold.

Anonymous said...

Yeah -- didn't think about 6 handed aspect. 9/10 handed, under the gun, JJ and AQ is a very reasonable limp, depending on table.

And again -- don't discount someone mixing it up occasionally. One of the most common recurring notes I have on players, many of them much better than me (and maybe this is more of a tourney thing), is first limper UTG, UTG+1, UTG+2 with hands where I'd expect a raise (AA-1010, AK, AQ). I hate to do it, and rarely do, but I definitely see it from others.