Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Value Betting a Scary Board - Results

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BB: 167.36 BB
UTG: 98.60 BB
MP: 93.56 BB
Hero (CO): 134.52 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 100 BB
Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to 3.4BB, 2 folds, BB calls 2.4BB

Flop: (7.2BB) 3 9 Q (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 5.8BB, BB calls 5.8BB

Turn: (18.8BB) 3 9 Q [ J ] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 14BB, BB calls 14BB

River: (46.8BB) 3 9 Q J [ 8 ] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero?

I didn't really think too long before deciding this was definitely a good spot to value bet. Even though there are a decent number of 10s in my opponent's range, he will on average be betting them on the river, since I almost have to have either a straight of my own, a set, or maybe top 2-pair to be considering value betting here. The rest of the time, I'm checking behind and he's losing value.

But this is clearly a bet-fold situation, since I will almost always be facing a 10 if I get raised. A bluff-raise is possible, but unlikely enough such as to not make it warrant much of a fret. Here's how it played out:

Hero bets 24BB, Opponent moves all-in for 87.8BB, Hero folds.

It sucked to get raised all-in on the end like that, but not really much of a decision at that point, IMO. Beg to differ?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Good fold. I still like the value bet here. Dude prob had a read on you, because even with K10 I gotta put something out there against someone that's shown strength like you did to avoid the c. Had you fired 3 barrels after being called on flop and turn earlier?

Scott