Bluffcatcher Fail

Played a hand last 2 nights ago, and I've thought a lot about it since then, mainly because I wasn't thinking a lot about it while it was playing out.

I'm pretty sure I had a small amount of info on my opponent at the time, but it wasn't anything super-donkish, laggy, or nitty. Something in the middle.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BTN: $25.55
Hero (SB): $50
BB: $46.60
UTG: $56.95
CO: $50.50
Pre-Flop: A K dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1


Standard PF raise in blind battle
Flop: ($3) A T 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets $2, BB raises to $4.50, Hero calls $2.50


Flop is an automatic bet, since my hand is at the top of my range and I'm getting value from a ton of weaker hands that will call. Villain's raise means either monster (AT/A3/33), air, or one of really only 2 hands that I'm ahead of - AQ or AJ. I called, thinking it could elicit at least one more barrel from a worse hand. Should I have reraised?

Turn: ($12) 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $12, Hero calls $12

Okay, so I got my wish, another barrel. I have to say that I'm not entirely comfortable with the full pot sizing, but the 8 doesn't change anything. By calling here, I make it pretty clear that I am not going anywhere and have at least a decently strong A.

River: ($36) 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $28.60 and is All-In, Hero calls $28.60

Here comes the major breakdown. I've constructed for my opponent a pretty clear picture of the strength of my holding. His continued barreling therefore means that he either has 2-pair or better, or that he is trying to pull of a big multi-barrel bluff. My AK may as well be A2. For that fact, it may as well be T2, since I doubt he would turn a 2nd pair hand into a bluff. In other words, my hand is strictly a bluffcatcher. The strength of my kicker is irrelevant.

But that's the problem. Without much thought, I made the call, and I made it based on the strength of my kicker. Without realizing it, I was purely hoping that my opponent was bluffing. I was not so lucky.

Results: $93.20 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero mucked A K (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-$46.60 NET)
BB showed A T (two pair, Aces and Tens) and WON $90.20 (+$43.60 NET)

I chalk this loss up to 2 mistakes. One is a common theme here...overvaluing hands in blind battle situations. Been over this many times - one pair is still one pair, and I should not be stacking off in this manner just because it is a blind battle. The second mistake was not thinking through the hand. I saved that for the hours and days after this hand had ended. And here, I finally got my thoughts out. Next time, I'd like to be able to manage all of this before the hand ends and (bad) decisions are made.

The Live Grind

Last week I played at a local poker house in a $1-$2 NL game. It's always a somewhat strange experience, given how frequently I play online 6-max, to sit in a full ring live game. My strategy and style of play is calibrated to online shorthanded games, so I find myself making some big mistakes in these games. Here are the biggest ones:

1) Not noticing stack sizes

This is easy to do for several reasons: One, there is no little number floating over each player's head showing the exact size of their stack (waiting for the software upgrade on that one). Two, the game is slow, such that when you wake up and find yourself in a hand, you often haven't taken a good look at each player's stack in some time. And three, it isn't all that easy to look at someone's stack and determine exactly how much they have.

As a result of this mistake, I've found myself trying to steal pots from committed opponents. I've also made bad calls due to miscalculated implied odds.

2) Firing multiple barrels against calling stations

The 1-2 games I play are dominated by people who want to spend a couple of hours playing poker. This means playing a good number of hands and seeing a lot of flops. It also means sticking around in a lot of hands, whether it be wise or not. I donked off a decent portion of my stack double-barrelling in 2 different spots. One on a K-high board against a loose fish with K-8o, another on an A-high board against a guy with A-5o. The lesson against most of these players is simple: value bet them to death, and if you want to take a stab at an orphaned pot, one stab will do.

3) C-betting too much

This is a corollary to problem 2), accentuated by the fact that, even in a raised pot, there are usually 4 or more players calling and seeing the flop. As a result, when you miss the flop, unless it is a super-dry flop, it is likely that someone got a piece. In general, the C-bet doesn't have the effect that it used to, and in live games, that statement is even more true. So unless it's a 2- or 3-handed flop, I will forego a C-bet on a lot of flops that I would automatically bet online.

*************************************************

So yeah, I make some common mistakes. Overall, I love these live games. It's always more fun to add in all of the little details of a live game - the chips, the reads, the banter. And, these games are far easier to beat. But, it takes an amazing amount of patience. Grinding these games is really grinding, because these games can be so loose that you are best off waiting for made hands to get paid off.

Some time back, I asked a group of poker-playing friends how I could open up my game to play more loosely, thinking that this would be a good way to adjust my style to try and take advantage of some of the bad players at these games. It's probably fine to try to make a change like that, if I commit to it, and deal with a painful adjustment period and some higher variance. But I have realized that I really just need to stick to a TAG approach to crush these games. Which means long periods with no action, and some night where I play for 4 hours and only have 1 or 2 noteworthy hands to show for it.

To wit: last night, I played 1 big hand early on, then lost a few later in the night by exercising live game mistake 2). Here's the big hand, most notable for my mistake on the flop:

It's a kill pot, so an LP player has posted a $5 blind. My stack is $119. Other significant players in the pot all have me covered. LP is an old man who has been playing loose. SB is weakish too.

Hand: 8h-9h in the BB
PF action: 2 MPs call the $5, the SB raises to $15, I call, the MPs call, and the LP kill pot blind poster calls.
Pot = $75

Flop: Qc-Js-Th
Action: SB leads for $25, I call $25, 2 MPs fold, LP raises to $50. SB calls, I shove for $54 more. LP calls, SB calls.
Pot = $387

Here's where I make a mistake. On one hand, it is risky to overplay bottom straight, given the fact that SB will sometimes have AK here, and K9 is also a possible holding from an LP player. So I call thinking I can sweat the board pairing and get it in on a later street.

But, with this thinking, I am ignoring my stack size. My stack is small enough that I should basically be willing to get it all-in when I flop the 3rd nuts. Also, as noted earlier, these games are full of poor players who will make bad calls with lots of 1 and 2-pair hands, and also with draws that I am way ahead of. So I should be making a raise here, maybe to $65-$80, and planning on getting the rest in on the turn no matter what comes. By just calling, I give a lot of hands the right odds to draw, and with any A, K, or 9 on the turn, on top of any board-pairing card, I risk falling behind and being in a tough spot.

Luckily, the loose LP made a raise and allowed me to get my stack in on the flop. The rest was just sweating it out.

Turn: 5d
Action: LP shoves, SB tanks and folds, saying he had KQ.

River: 7c
I turn up my bottom straight and LP turns up QTo.

Value Betting a Scary Board - Results

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BB: 167.36 BB
UTG: 98.60 BB
MP: 93.56 BB
Hero (CO): 134.52 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 100 BB
Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to 3.4BB, 2 folds, BB calls 2.4BB

Flop: (7.2BB) 3 9 Q (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 5.8BB, BB calls 5.8BB

Turn: (18.8BB) 3 9 Q [ J ] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 14BB, BB calls 14BB

River: (46.8BB) 3 9 Q J [ 8 ] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero?

I didn't really think too long before deciding this was definitely a good spot to value bet. Even though there are a decent number of 10s in my opponent's range, he will on average be betting them on the river, since I almost have to have either a straight of my own, a set, or maybe top 2-pair to be considering value betting here. The rest of the time, I'm checking behind and he's losing value.

But this is clearly a bet-fold situation, since I will almost always be facing a 10 if I get raised. A bluff-raise is possible, but unlikely enough such as to not make it warrant much of a fret. Here's how it played out:

Hero bets 24BB, Opponent moves all-in for 87.8BB, Hero folds.

It sucked to get raised all-in on the end like that, but not really much of a decision at that point, IMO. Beg to differ?

Value Betting a Scary Board

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BB: 167.36 BB
UTG: 98.60 BB
MP: 93.56 BB
Hero (CO): 134.52 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 100 BB
Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to 3.4BB, 2 folds, BB calls 2.4BB

Flop: (7.2BB) 3 9 Q (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 5.8BB, BB calls 5.8BB

Turn: (18.8BB) 3 9 Q [ J ] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 14BB, BB calls 14BB

River: (46.8BB) 3 9 Q J [ 8 ] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero?

The new me looks for more far spots to get extra value on the river than the old me. But is this a good one? Boils down to a few factors, I would say:
1) Are there enough hands that I am ahead of that will call a value bet on this board?
2) Would a rivered straight check to me here, knowing that I'm unlikely to fire a 3rd barrel on a board that has become pretty darn scary?
3) Is my opponent capable of bluff-raising this board?

Blind Battle Big Bets - Results

Results from the 2 blind battle hands from Tuesday.

Hand 1)
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $21.29
BTN: $20.46
SB: $24.25
Hero (BB): $45.56
UTG: $24.77
MP: $6.61
Pre-Flop: T A dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $0.25, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.60) A J A (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.25, Hero raises to $0.90, UTG calls $0.65

I raise the flop here with trip A's, good kicker, mostly to build a pot and get value from a J or weaker A. Since villain limped UTG, AJ is the only hand I am worried about. There are a ton more A-x hands in his range, and a lot of J's too.

Turn: ($2.40) A J A [ 8 ] (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $5, Hero calls $5

I check the turn, hoping to make my flop raise look like a one-and-done bluff, or else a weak J, insufficient to continue firing. The villain does something weird here, though, and fires 2x the pot. This is almost never a value-type hand, so I really don't think he can have a weak J here. That leaves bluffs and monsters. Now I'm only worried about AJ and A8. But since monsters might also include some A-x hands that I crush, I don't think I can fold here.

I can raise here to get value from a weaker A, but he'll probably fire the river with that hand anyway, and in case he is running a bluff, I figure my best shot is to leave him some rope and let him consider firing the river again.

River: ($12.40) A J A 8 [ K ] (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $18.62 and is All-In,
Hero?

So now it's 2 consecutive overbets. This is a really strong line, and I'm not sure I've ever seen it as a bluff before. Can I call here? Should I have played the turn differently?
...
...
Hero calls $18.62

Results: $49.64 Pot ($2.48 Rake)
Hero mucked T A (three of a kind, Aces) and LOST (-$24.77 NET)
UTG showed 8 8 (a full house, Eights full of Aces) and WON $47.16 (+$22.39 NET)

Villain hits a gross turn and works me over for the maximum. It's really hard to get away from my hand here, but perhaps I should have picked up that the big overbet was a shrewd attempt to maximize the value of his improbably monster. Is it too results-oriented to say so?

Hand 2)
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $25.51
BTN: $27.99
SB: $37.69
Hero (BB): $48.71
UTG: $16.40
MP: $85.74
Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (BB)
4 folds, SB raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.50) 5 5 J (2 Players)
SB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

After 3-betting PF, villain leads out for full pot. There are obviously a lot more J's than 5's in his range, and also some hands like 66-TT that might lead out in a similar way. I can raise and possibly get value from a QJ-AJ type hand, but I risk folding out medium pocket pairs on weaker J hands that are more likely to pay me off on later streets.

Turn: ($13.50) 5 5 J [ K ] (2 Players)
SB bets $13.50,
Hero?
...
...
Hero calls $13.50

River: ($40.50) 5 5 J K [ 7 ] (2 Players)
SB bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

This is a somewhat interesting street too. After leading for full pot 2 streets in a row, villain leads for the minimum, broadcasting serious doubt about the strength of his hand. I briefly considered a raise for value, but remembered that he may be slowing down here with a number of hands that I am still behind, like AK/KJ/KQ. So I just called.

Results: $41 Pot ($2.05 Rake)
SB showed J J (a full house, Jacks full of Fives) and WON $38.95 (+$18.45 NET)
Hero mucked Q Q (two pair, Queens and Fives) and LOST (-$20.50 NET)

Both of these hands are basically minor coolers, but my intention was not to vent about my crap luck in these spots. Rather, it was to demonstrate that a lot of caution should be taken when facing solid players making really big bets.

In hand 1, my opponent overbet the pot, knowing that it was likely that I was holding an A and would not be able to lay my hand down against his turned boat. This was a smart move to extract maximum value from a strong but not monster holding.

In hand 2, my opponent made a big bet, taking the risk that I might fold in order to build up a pot from OOP with a monster, and possibly to induce me to raise. You could argue that I should have folded the turn, but I feel confident that I lost the minimum in this spot. I was lucky that he tried to induce a bluff or value bet on the river, instead of just shoving it in, putting me in a wicked spot and possibly stacking me.