Overpair Strategy Shift

It's a common situation - you raise or reraise PF with a big pair, QQ-AA. The flop comes out all undercards, mostly low cards, but still draw heavy. You make the aggressive play, either C-betting or raising if someone leads into you. Then a villain makes a raise. What's your reaction? Do your eyes light up? Do you automatically re-raise?

After a rough stretch, I can answer those questions thusly - Not excited, eyes downcast, and no way am I automatically re-raising. In fact, I'm even thinking about folding. Here are the hands...at the end, I have some additional thoughts on how I am reconsidering these types of spots.


Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
SB: $45.85
BB: $56.55
UTG: $36.45
CO: $41
Hero (BTN): $79.45
Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, CO calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, CO calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.25) 5 7 9 (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.25, CO raises to $7, Hero calls $3.75

Turn: ($19.25) 5 (2 Players)
CO bets $10.50, Hero raises to $32, CO calls $21.25 and is All-In

River: ($82.75) 6 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $82.75 Pot ($3 Rake)
CO showed 9 9 (a full house, Nines full of Fives) and WON $79.75 (+$38.75 NET)
Hero showed Q Q (two pair, Queens and Fives) and LOST (-$41 NET)

This seems pretty standard on the surface. Opponent raises my flop C-bet, I call. The turn is then a good card - the 5 doesn't complete any draws, and it counterfeits a 9-7 2-pair. So I push over villain's lead, and he snap-calls with a boat.

The problem is the tiny raise made by the villain on the flop. If he's making a semi-bluff, he wants to give himself better fold equity, so he would have raised much more than the almost min-raise that he made. 9-7 is vulnerable and needs to raise more. 10-10 and JJ need to raise bigger to figure out where they stand (if you're given to raising at all with those hands). Unless I've seen him make this type of raise with something weaker, I have to assume that he is representing real strength.


Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (BTN): $172.55
SB: $49.50
BB: $54.50
UTG: $277
MP: $100
CO: $85.15
Pre-Flop: A A dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.75, CO folds, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, MP calls $4.25

Flop: ($12.75) 6 T 8 (2 Players)
MP checks, Hero bets $7, MP raises to $18.50, Hero calls $11.50

Turn: ($49.75) 4 (2 Players)
MP bets $35, Hero raises to $80, MP calls $40.50 and is All-In

River: ($200.75) 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $200.75 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed A A (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-$100 NET)
MP showed T T (three of a kind, Tens) and WON $197.75 (+$97.75 NET)

Again, a hand that seems pretty standard. But this time, the wrinkle is that the hand was re-raised PF, which significantly tightens his range, to something like 99+, AQs+. And after I call the flop raise, I think JJ-KK might proceed with more caution, perhaps trying to avoid becoming committed to the pot.

The problem is that I can see QQ, KK, AdKd, and AdQd proceeding exactly the same way. So maybe this is unavoidable.


Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BB: $113.20
Hero (UTG): $50.05
CO: $25.20
BTN: $85.85
SB: $62.20
Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $1.75, 2 folds, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.25) Q 2 5 (3 Players)
SB bets $5.25, BB calls $5.25, Hero raises to $20, SB folds, BB raises to $111.45 and is All-In, Hero calls $28.30 and is All-In

Turn: ($107.10) 6 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($107.10) 2 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $107.10 Pot ($3 Rake)
BB showed 2 2 (four of a kind, Twos) and WON $104.10 (+$54.05 NET)
Hero showed K K (two pair, Kings and Twos) and LOST (-$50.05 NET)

This hand has the most benign flop of the 3 I've shown here. But this one contains a twist. The first villain leads out and the 2nd villain overcalls. That overcall, knowing that the PF aggressor is still left to act, means either a monster hand, a big draw, or a donk who will fold his one-pair after I raise it.

When I raise, the 1st raiser folds, and the overcaller pushes in, it means one of 2 things - either a flopped set or a monster draw. The only draw I can possibly put him on is Ah-2h. And I am about 50-50 against that hand. The sets have me drawing to 2 outs. I should be able to fold here.

The ultimate question is what do you do with an overpair when faced with aggression on the flop? It certainly depends on the flop and the player, amongst other things. How much of their range has you beat? Have you seen them raise with draws before, or only made hands?

One point that is often overlooked is this - on a draw-heavy board, you may still be ahead of a villain with a draw, but that villain may still be upwards of 50% to draw out. Combine that with the possibility of seeing a set, and maybe it becomes easier to fold.

Do I play these different if they happen again? I think I fold the KK hand, I know I lose the AA again, and the QQ is borderline. Maybe I try harder to control the pot, calling instead of pushing.

And one final question - is this just a run of bad hands, or a real sign that I need to rethink my strategy in playing big pocket pairs? Am I risking losing value against TPTK hands, and playing too much pot control, giving away free or cheap cards to big draws, by overreacting to these hands?

I think I need a neutral outside observer to answer that last one, as I'm still too tilted to say for myself. Or at least until the next time I get one of these hands to hold up!