Sunday, January 25, 2009

Anatomy of a Downswing


Best illustrated with a chart. Only 207 hands, less than an hour, and a nice 3 buy-in downswing. Overpairs continue to kill me, and I continue to be unable to get away from them.


Hand A:

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BB: $23.75
UTG: $16.40
MP: $54.95
Hero (CO): $54.05
BTN: $44
SB: $18.95
Pre-Flop: J J dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 2 folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) 6 9 8 (2 Players)
BB bets $2, Hero raises to $6.50, BB calls $4.50

Turn: ($16.75) 6 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $16, BB calls $15.50 and is All-In

River: ($47.75) 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $47.75 Pot ($2.35 Rake)
BB showed 8 8 (a full house, Eights full of Nines) and WON $45.40 (+$21.65 NET)
Hero showed J J (two pair, Jacks and Nines) and LOST (-$23.75 NET)
I don't mind losing an overpair to a set vs. a 40BB short stack, especially after a relatively good turn card peels.

Hand B
Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (BTN): $50.75
SB: $100.35
BB: $50.45
UTG: $50
MP: $56.50
CO: $64.60
Pre-Flop: T T dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.75, CO folds, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, MP calls $4.25

Flop: ($12.75) A 9 J (2 Players)
MP checks, Hero bets $9, MP raises to $25, Hero folds

Results: $30.75 Pot ($1.50 Rake)
MP mucked and WON $29.25 (+$14.25 NET)
Bad flop, probably should have checked and peeled another card.

Hand C

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (BTN): $52.20
SB: $148.95
BB: $37.45
UTG: $50.55
MP: $50
CO: $103.40
Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.75, CO folds, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, MP calls $4.25

Flop: ($12.75) T 4 9 (2 Players)
MP checks, Hero bets $10, MP raises to $20, Hero raises to $46.20 and is All-In, MP calls $24 and is All-In

Turn: ($100.75) 3 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($100.75) 5 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $100.75 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed K K (a pair of Kings) and LOST (-$50 NET)
MP showed T T (three of a kind, Tens) and WON $97.75 (+$47.75 NET)
In a 3-bet pot vs. TT, if rags flop, I could easily stack the villain here. Sets are hitting left and right.

Hand D
Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
SB: $36.50
BB: $76.75
UTG: $93.90
MP: $52.90
CO: $81.45
Hero (BTN): $62.40
Pre-Flop: Q A dealt to Hero (BTN)
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, SB calls $1.50, BB folds

Flop: ($4) 7 7 J (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB raises to $9, Hero raises to $35, SB calls $25.75 and is All-In

Turn: ($73.50) Q (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($73.50) K (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $73.50 Pot ($3 Rake)
SB showed J Q (two pair, Queens and Jacks) and WON $70.50 (+$34 NET)
Hero showed Q A (two pair, Queens and Sevens) and LOST (-$36.50 NET)
Tilt is starting to set in here. But I actually don't mind this play. This will usually fold out most Jacks, and I have 6 live outs against a lot of weak Jacks, J8-J10. Villain got attached to his top pair 3rd kicker. But this is the type of aggressive play that I wish I were capable of more frequently.


Hand E

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BB: $151.20
UTG: $72.35
MP: $35.35
CO: $29.95
Hero (BTN): $51.75
SB: $64.65
Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, MP raises to $2, CO folds, Hero raises to $6.75, 2 folds, MP calls $4.75

Flop: ($14.25) 2 4 5 (2 Players)
MP checks, Hero bets $10, MP raises to $28.60 and is All-In, Hero calls $18.60

Turn: ($71.45) 3 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($71.45) T (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $71.45 Pot ($3 Rake)
MP showed 7 A (a straight, Five high) and WON $68.45 (+$33.10 NET)
Hero showed Q Q (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$35.35 NET)

Easy call, and I'm way ahead, sweating 7 outs. Straight hits on the turn and I'm toast.
Hand F
Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BTN: $70.50
SB: $76.25
BB: $93.90
UTG: $52.90
MP: $81.45
Hero (CO): $50
Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $6, 3 folds, MP calls $4.25

Flop: ($12.75) 7 A K (2 Players)
MP checks, Hero bets $9.50, MP raises to $45.75, Hero calls $34.50 and is All-In

Turn: ($100.75) J (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($100.75) 6 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $100.75 Pot ($3 Rake)
MP showed K A (two pair, Aces and Kings) and LOST (-$50 NET)
Hero showed K K (three of a kind, Kings) and WON $97.75 (+$47.75 NET)

The one that went right. Not much to say.
Hand G
Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $70.50
BTN: $76
SB: $93.40
BB: $52.90
UTG: $50
Hero (MP): $97.75
Pre-Flop: A J dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 2 folds, SB calls $1.50, BB folds

Flop: ($4) 9 J 2 (2 Players)
SB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $3.50, SB calls $3

Turn: ($11) J (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9, SB raises to $18, Hero calls $9

River: ($47) Q (2 Players)
SB bets $20.50, Hero calls $20.50

Results: $88 Pot ($3 Rake)
SB showed 9 9 (a full house, Nines full of Jacks) and WON $85 (+$41.25 NET)
Hero mucked A J (three of a kind, Jacks) and LOST (-$43.75 NET)

The best I can say is that I managed to not get stacked. Another strong hand facing a flopped set. I thought about pushing the turn but lost my nerve....good thing I did.
Hand H
Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
SB: $26.75
BB: $50
UTG: $58.75
Hero (MP): $75.15
CO: $84.50
BTN: $63.25
Pre-Flop: T T dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.75, CO folds, BTN calls $1.75, SB raises to $8, BB folds, Hero raises to $26.25, BTN folds, SB raises to $26.75 and is All-In, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($55.75) 2 Q 4 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Turn: ($55.75) K (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($55.75) 7 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $55.75 Pot ($2.75 Rake)
SB showed K A (a pair of Kings) and WON $53 (+$26.25 NET)
Hero showed T T (a pair of Tens) and LOST (-$26.75 NET)
The final blow. I get it all-in vs. a shorty in a race, and consistent with the theme of the session, it does't go my way.
I wish I could say that I would have done a lot different, but I'm not sure I would. This is just how it goes, and I'm waiting for it to turn around. Stay tuned...

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wow....people are flopping sets against you lately as is they have 12 outs to a set, not 2. Just gross. Of all those hands, I think the two that would frustsrate me the most would be D and E. Calling any raise with QJ is just asking for trouble. It's dominated by so many different hands. And who calls a re-raise pre-flop with A7?? Even if an Ace hits, he has no idea if he's way ahead or way behind. He undoubtedly called because of the donkey creed: "but they're suited!"

Hef

noldmax said...

Yeah, it's been rough, but it's a lot easier to keep cool about it when you look back over your session and realize that you didn't really make that many mistakes. So you just wait for things to turn your way.

Unfortunately, Part 2 of this series is coming up today.

spritpot said...

Some tough hands, but really a 3 bi downswing is nothing. Lemme know when you get to 20 ROR.

Hand A - just gross, it's not like you can check turn adn then just fold the river when he shoves.

Hand B - I like betting more. YOu might fold out QQ or QJ, plus no reason to check and let KQ get there. If he bluffed you with KQ or a flush draw, fine.

Hand C - It depends on the villain, but it's not terrible to fold there. Is he really going to play JJ like that for value? I think if he had another hand he was willing to go all the way with, like a flush draw (most of which have either an over or a straight draw to go with them), or a weaker one pair, he'd just shove rather than min raise. Depending on how often you 3b and c-bet, this could be a fold.

Hand D - I'd want more history on this guy before making this play. You need to know that he's capable of check-raising and then folding.

Hand E - Gross.

Hand G - Weird line by villain. I think you minimized losses there. Terrible bet size by him on the river.

Hand H - Depending on the stats of the shorty, I could argue for a fold here too. Run pokerstove on TT vs. a range of AK and TT+ and see how you fare.

-bruechips

noldmax said...

Thanks for the feedback Bruechips. I enjoy reading your blog.

On Hand B, I C-bet basically 3/4. Do you think the difference between betting $9 and $11-12 into $12.75 is the difference between being check-raised or not? Or are you just suggesting that b/c it may be difference between having a QJ/KJ/QQ call or not?

Your comments on C are fair...you don't see that many players making tricky min-raise bluffs at this level. But are you really folding to a $10 raise in a $42 pot with an overpair? Maybe call and then fold to a push if a rag hits?

I agree on both D and H. When not steaming, I fold both of those hands.

spritpot said...

On B, I meant I like betting more than checking, not I like betting a larger amount. The amount you bet is fine, I think.

For C, if you call the flop, you are goign all the way. You can't call and then fold for another 25 on the turn. I'm not saying definitely fold, but if you're a pretty tight player that doesn't 3-bet very often and you're up against a regular...it's something to consider. Like against most full ring regulars at this level, I think it would be a fold. In a 6-max games, even the regulars are loose and aggressive enough that it might be best to just hold your nose and stick it in.