Monday, January 26, 2009

Anatomy of a Downswing, Part 2

Out another 4 buy-ins, I've decided I have to drop back down to 25NL to work on my BR and weather the storm. Incredibly frustrating. For your reading pleasure, the details....

Hand A

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
MP: $58.45
CO: $73.35
Hero (BTN): $53.80
SB: $96.55
BB: $72.60
UTG: $54.45
Pre-Flop: A 4 dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $2, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($8) 3 Q 6 (4 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $6.50, Hero raises to $15, SB folds, BB raises to $23.50, UTG folds, Hero calls $8.50
Great odds on the flush draw, zero fold equity, easy call. I have him on a set of 3s or 6s.

Turn: ($61.50) K (2 Players)
BB bets $9, Hero calls $9
This guy is just begging to be sucked out on. Another easy call.

River: ($79.50) 7 (2 Players)
BB bets $10, Hero folds

Results: $79.50 Pot ($3 Rake)
BB mucked and WON $76.50 (+$42 NET)

A critical part of any downswing is a consistent streak of missed draws, rendering one unable to punish bad players for their bad play.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Hand B

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BTN: $37.30
SB: $77.65
BB: $19.10
UTG: $72.80
Hero (MP): $50.75
CO: $70.45
Pre-Flop: T T dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, BTN folds, SB calls $1.50, BB folds

Flop: ($5.75) 3 6 8 (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.25, CO raises to $13, SB folds, Hero raises to $49 and is All-In, CO calls $36

Villain had raised my flop C-bet during the previous orbit, forcing me to fold. That contributed to my overpair push here.

Turn: ($103.75) 2 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($103.75) A (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $103.75 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed T T (a pair of Tens) and LOST (-$50.75 NET)
CO showed 6 8 (two pair, Eights and Sixes) and WON $100.75 (+$50 NET)

I still have a decent number of outs against 2 pair, but it feels like 0 on a swing like this.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Hand C

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: $52.70
MP: $75.50
Hero (CO): $50
BTN: $93.05
SB: $119.55
BB: $53.75
Pre-Flop: 4 4 dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, BB calls $1.75, MP calls $1.75

Flop: ($7) 5 J 4 (3 Players)
BB bets $5, MP calls $5, Hero raises to $25, BB folds, MP calls $20

I hate the monosuit, but it isn't going to slow me down. I still have plenty of outs against a flopped flush. I put MP on the Ac, possibly plus a pair.

Turn: ($62) K (2 Players)
MP checks, Hero bets $22.75 and is All-In, MP calls $22.75

River: ($107.50) J (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $107.50 Pot ($3 Rake)
MP showed 5 5 (a full house, Fives full of Jacks) and WON $104.50 (+$54.50 NET)
Hero showed 4 4 (a full house, Fours full of Jacks) and LOST (-$50 NET)

Losing set over set is another staple of a brutal downswing. All of the elements are here, folks!

----------------------------------------------------------------

Hand D

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: $42.95
MP: $133.80
Hero (CO): $50.75
BTN: $92.30
SB: $100.95
BB: $76.40
Pre-Flop: A K dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, BTN folds, SB raises to $3, BB folds, Hero raises to $9.50, SB raises to $16, Hero calls $6.50

Min-raise 5-bet spells trouble, but I'm in position with AK, so I have to call. I'd love to see an A.

Flop: ($32.50) 2 4 J (2 Players)
SB bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

For $3.50, I'll call even to draw to runner-runner. This guy must be a donkey. I have him on JJ, KK, AA.

Turn: ($39.50) 2 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Now I should be done. Nothing left to draw to.

River: ($39.50) K (2 Players)
SB bets $10, Hero calls $10

Awful call. But the odds were great. Hope springs eternal on a downswing.

Results: $59.50 Pot ($2.95 Rake)
Hero mucked A K (two pair, Kings and Twos) and LOST (-$29.50 NET)
SB showed J J (a full house, Jacks full of Twos) and WON $56.55 (+$27.05 NET)

3 comments:

au trader said...

Brutal - hang in there.

spritpot said...

A - This guy is obviously a donkey given his betting. This makes me believe that he doesn't automatically have a set. He could have something retarded like TT that just doesn't believe you on the flop, and doesn't want to check/call down. On the turn you already have half your stack in there, and you can kind of represent a K. You could have KQ or a K-high flush draw, for instance. So maybe he folds QJ or JJ if you shove. Or maybe he calls your shove with a lower flush draw. I just hate folding on the river to a $10 bet in an $80 pot. OK, you saved an extra $18 or so by calling down instead of shoving the flop or turn if you were up against a monster hand, but I think it's worth it to play more aggressively on earlier streets, unless this guy is some meganit that you've seen play a set similarly before.

B - I don't think a shove accomplishes much. Try a Fade 'N Go if you want to continue in the hand.

C - Gross.

D - In 6-max games, or even in full ring games these days, AKo is the nuts when you're opening from late position, as long as you play it like the nuts. Shove it all in pre-flop! If you're not going to do that, just call his donkey min-re-raise preflop. In position, that's a fine way to play it. But 4-b and then call min 5-b is the nut low. Given your preflop play, postflop is fine.

-bruechips

noldmax said...

Thanks for the comments Bruechips.

A - You make an interesting point about playing against bad players. It's clear that he's bad, but my reaction to that is just to be thankful that I'm getting a great price on my draw (and knowing he'll probably pay me off if I hit). I don't take it further and question whether he's so bad that he has no idea how to value his hand. But, if he's bad enough that he's overvaluing TT/JJ/QJ here, doesn't that make it less likely that he considers the turn K as much of a scare card as it really is?

In a spot where you have no FE but a nice draw, I think it's OK to call down and then give up when you miss. By the river, he's raised once and fired 2 more barrels, so it's pretty hard to put him on anything I can beat. Doesn't a worse missed flush draw at least put it all in on the end?

B&D - Good points both, esp. on D. The min-raise from OOP should generally be strong enough to ring some bells, but if I'm going to continue to push it up, I should be going all the way.