Reconsidered

Here's a hand that I didn't really think was all that interesting until I took a second look at it. Please examine the point of interest and provide your thoughts. I'll chime in later in the comments.

Villain is 13/11/6 over 118 hands

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BTN: $26.65
SB: $86.20
BB: $34.30
UTG: $50
MP: $49.55
Hero (CO): $63.90
Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG raises to $1.50, MP folds, Hero raises to $5.25, 3 folds, UTG raises to $16, Hero calls $10.75

4-bet by a tight player. Folding QQ is probably not awful, but nittier than I, frankly, am capable of. I have position and my thinking here is that I can sweat a flop and get it in if AK whiffs. This may not be the best line of thought, but nonetheless, here we go!

Flop: ($32.75) 6 A 2 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($32.75) 7 (2 Players)
UTG checks,
Hero?

Optimistic Misdonkification

That's a phrase I just invented for when you have a temporary lapse in sound poker judgement, characterized by optimistically assuming that your opponent is a donkey, so that you can justify making a really bad call. It also happens to be a really bad leak in my game.

I looked back over my weekend sessions, which added up to small loss, and identified Optimistic Misdonkification as the difference between red and black. Here are 2 of the bigger hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: $50
MP: $68.90
CO: $26.70
BTN: $20.80
Hero (SB): $55.35
BB: $24.80
Pre-Flop: 6 4 dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, MP raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, Hero calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

This is a fold against 1 or 2 villains, but I don't mind it in a 4-way or better pot.

Flop: ($8.75) 5 K J (5 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP bets $6, 2 folds, Hero calls $6, BB folds

Turn: ($20.75) K (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP checks

River: ($20.75) 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $9, MP raises to $30, Hero calls $21

This is a pretty easy value bet, but I think it has to be a bet-fold spot. I do think there's always a small chance that I could be facing a villain capable of raising AK for value here, hoping that I'm holding a weaker K-x. But most opponents will call here with any K after the flush comes in. That leaves the raising range as monsters (KJ/JJ/55) that got there on the turn, and drawing hands that got there on the river (any 2 big spades, 77). When I call here, I'm really just praying that my opponent is bad enough to be ignoring the flush card and raising AK cause he thinks it's the nuts. And when you go and assume that your opponent is a donkey, it often, ironically, makes YOU the donkey.

Results: $80.75 Pot ($3 Rake)
MP showed T Q (a flush, King high) and WON $77.75 (+$40 NET)
Hero mucked 6 4 (a flush, King high) and LOST (-$37.75 NET)

So that one was a $21 blunder. This one doesn't cost quite as much, but still burns. I didn't really have any stats on the villain.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
SB: $50.25
Hero (BB): $81.85
UTG: $36.10
BTN: $68.75
Pre-Flop: 9 A dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG raises to $1.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) A K 5 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($7.25) 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $5, Hero calls $5

Here's where it gets questionable. I guess I'm giving him credit for either a 2-barrel bluff or a light second barrel with a worse A-rag hand. You know how those donkeys just loooove their aces! Yep, folding here is probably fine, without more info on opponent.

River: ($17.25) 6 (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6

So let's say villain makes a big river bet. Well then his range is pretty heavily polarized, and although it's unlikely that he's making a 3-barrel bluff, I at least can consider the possibility. But here he bets small, looking very interested in squeezing some final value out of a strong holding. A post-oak bluff? I don't think so. But here I come along all Pollyanna star-bright running my fingers through my long yellow curls, smiling wide to yammer - "By golly, he's just got to be firing 3 barrels with A-8 here!"

Results: $29.25 Pot ($1.45 Rake)
Hero mucked 9 A (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-$14.50 NET)
UTG showed 5 5 (three of a kind, Fives) and WON $27.80 (+$13.30 NET)

River PSB from a Fish

Villain is 69/24/2.1 over 29 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $94.70
BTN: $37.05
Hero (SB): $50
BB: $55
UTG: $50
Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, BTN calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, BB calls $2, BTN calls $2

Flop: ($7.50) 8 7 7 (3 Players)
Hero bets $5, BB folds, BTN calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($17.50) A (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $18,
Hero?

Is it a mistake to check this river? Should I be making a blocking bet?

Bluff Happy

I've been reading Small Stakes No-Limit Hold'em, and yes, I know it's ridiculous that I would pay $100 for a poker book when it takes me 2 months to make that much playing online. :)
But that's not the point. The point is that the Barrelling section of that book, which is great, has inspired me to aggressively steal pots post-flop. For the most part, it's working well. A few examples from a session two nights ago...

Villain is 35/26/4.5 over 68 and seems solid (these are often the best type to bluff big against).

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BTN: $15.27
SB: $28.92
BB: $70.57
Hero (UTG): $26.85
CO: $12.50
Pre-Flop: J K dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $0.85, CO folds, BTN calls $0.85, SB folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.65) 6 2 T (3 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, BB raises to $6, Hero calls $4.25, BTN folds

I thought about shipping it here, but with position, a strong draw, and possibly live overcards, I called instead.

Turn: ($16.40) 2 (2 Players)
BB bets $7, Hero calls $7

This call is a lot closer. There's no guarantee that my diamond is good, nor my K or J. And I probably shouldn't be relying on any chance of stealing the pot without making a hand. So yeah, this may be bad (maybe raising is better?).

River: ($30.40) 6 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13 and is All-In, BB folds

When he checks here, I'm pretty sure he has either air or his own busted draw. Since I can't beat an A-high flush draw, shipping it in is my only play. A Ten is still possible, but I can't imagine he comes this far and folds with top pair. A middle pair may play it this way, looking for a cheap showdown but unwilling to call off his stack.

Results: $30.40 Pot ($1.52 Rake)
Hero mucked J K and WON $28.88 (+$15.03 NET)

About 20 minutes later, I get involved with the same LAG-y villain again.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $32.95
BTN: $22.85
SB: $53.34
Hero (BB): $35.68
UTG: $25
MP: $12.50
Pre-Flop: 6 7 dealt to Hero (BB)
4 folds, SB raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.50

My plan here was to float almost any flop and try to steal it on the turn. Players are being taught to steal aggressively from the SB, and in my opinion, it's really exploitable, since their ranges are so wide, they're out of position, and they rarely have the will to take it past the flop.

Flop: ($1.50) T 7 Q (2 Players)
SB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

Third pair is more than enough to float with. The full pot is a bigger bet than I usually see here, so I begin to wonder if he has a real hand.

Turn: ($4.50) 4 (2 Players)
SB bets $3.75, Hero raises to $9, SB calls $5.25

A big second barrel is unexpected, and I consider folding. But I decide to stick to it and represent a 2-pair+ hand with a raise. When he calls, I'm pretty much ready to give it up.

River: ($22.50) 3 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $24.43 and is All-In, SB folds

But the river is such a complete blank, and I can't imagine that he could call another big barrel here. Of course, I may have been good here with 3rd pair, had he missed a straight or flush draw, but I think my shove still folds out a lot of his Q-x/T-x hands. And what's more, I prefer to not have to show down my hand after the way that I've played it.

Results: $22.50 Pot ($1.12 Rake)
Hero mucked 6 7 and WON $21.38 (+$10.13 NET)

In this one, I just decide to take the more aggressive line. When holding a draw and facing aggression, I have historically tended to go on the defensive. But if there is any chance that villain is check-raising light or bluff raising, the more aggressive line can be more profitable, and bolster your image.

Villain is 19/12/1.7 over 74

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: $24.70
CO: $33.92
Hero (BTN): $34.47
SB: $42.05
BB: $25
Pre-Flop: 9 J dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, CO raises to $0.85, Hero raises to $2.90, 2 folds, CO calls $2.05

Flop: ($6.15) 7 K T (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.50, CO raises to $8.50, Hero raises to $31.57 and is All-In, CO folds

Results: $23.15 Pot ($1.15 Rake)
Hero mucked 9 J and WON $22 (+$10.60 NET)

Of course, the problem with bluffing is that you stand to lose big when you fail. And I finally got my comeuppance in this hand.

I had no history on my opponent.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $50.75
BTN: $130.85
Hero (SB): $86.65
BB: $52.10
UTG: $50
MP: $50
Pre-Flop: 8 8 dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, CO raises to $1.50, BTN folds, Hero calls $1.25, BB folds

Flop: ($3.50) 3 2 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

I'm ahead of an average player's C-bet range here, so I think folding is way too nitty. Raising is an okay option, but I risk bloating the pot and having to either check later streets and become susceptible to a bluff, or basically turn my hand into a bluff by continuing to fire barrels. Of course, I could also win the pot outright or get re-raising and have an easy fold decision.

Turn: ($8.50) Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $6.50, Hero raises to $15, CO calls $8.50

So I decide to check-raise the turn instead. The Q is a good bluff card, and my check-raise represents major strength. When he just calls, I'm planning to fire a big barrel on the river, hoping to fold out a weakish Q-x hand (QJ/QK/QT) or a middle pair (JJ-99).

River: ($38.50) 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $22, CO calls $22

I wonder if shipping it wouldn't have gotten the fold I wanted, but I doubt it. No one likes folding AA, especially on a dry board. I opted for a bet that looked more like a value bet. Fail.

Results: $82.50 Pot ($3 Rake)
CO showed A A (two pair, Aces and Sevens) and WON $79.50 (+$38.50 NET)
Hero showed 8 8 (two pair, Eights and Sevens) and LOST (-$41 NET)