June Swoon

Poker has a way of setting you straight right when you start to feel good about your game and that you've figured things out.

Thus, I shouldn't have been surprised that my comeback post, with its dangerous expressions of confidence, would mark the beginning of a nasty stretch.

I can't say I've been playing my best, but I'm also not sure that some of bigger losing hands have been played incorrectly. Let's just say that I have some thoughts forthcoming about when it might be OK to fold 2nd set.

Back to counting down the hours to my Vegas flight tonight.

LV Trip Plans

Nothing dampens the thrill of an impending poker trip like a bad downswing in the preceding week. Neverfear, whines/incriminating charts are forthcoming. Downswings really sap my desire to play. But I only get one chance this year to play poker in Vegas, so I've got to try to stoke the fire manually.

I'm definitely not playing any more PLO between now and Friday, and my current thought is that I won't plan on playing much PLO cash in Vegas. I hear that the PLO games play big in Vegas - they're generally $2-$5 and play deep and wild. I'm probably a little too rattled by PLO right now to want to take that on. Which is a bummer, since it's probably my strongest game right now.

That said, my weekend plan is starting to look like this:
- Friday: Head to Rio while my crew (3 other friends) register for event #36 on Saturday. I think I may play 1, maybe 2 satellites at most for that event. If I fail, then I'm just going to ditch it and hit the $1-$3 NLHE cash games, either at the Rio or at Aria (where we'll be staying).
- Saturday: Again at Rio, sweating friends and grinding cash. Playing WSOP on outside chance of satellite win. If I have some early success at $1-$3, I may jump up to $2-$5 and dip my toes in the PLO games. Saturday night, party with friends from LA who will be coming in.
- Sunday: Play either the Venetian deepstack or Caesar's megastack (both around $350 buyin) at noon. If I bust early, play more NLHE cash.
- Monday: This day is open. I might play another deepstack event. I might just want to play another full day of cash games. Or, I might do some extracurriculars, like hitting the 100x odds craps tables downtown.
- Tuesday: Very small early morning window before flight. Probably no poker.

Alright, this is working. I'm getting psyched just thinking about my plans. And I didn't even mention plans to make badly uninformed bets on World Cup games, spend some modicum of time at the Vdara pool (can't be surrounded by filthy poker dudes the whole trip, right?), and dump money into the casino coffers playing Pai Gow and BJ.

4 Months In One Post

February was mostly a big bad downward spiral, salvaged by some serious run-good all-in EV. Barely positive after rakeback.

March was more of the same, without the benefit of February's good all-in fortune.

And then sometime around April, I shifted my approach and things turned around.

May was good too, although I continued to run behind in all-in spots.

So that's the story in charts and numbers. The only missing piece is several hundred dollars in rakeback.

I Don't Bluff

A new look for the comeback! The new Blogger templates are far better than they were before.

The title to this post captures the key the my PLO turnaround over the past 4 months. It's pretty simple, but it's working well, so why mess with it? I've talked a couple of times here before about how optimism clouds the thinking of poker players and skews rational analysis and judgement. I found a much better term for it: optimism bias, or, even better, the valence effect.

The poker player's desire to win a hand overcomes his rational understanding of the likelihood of winnig the hand. As a result, we have all kinds of bad crying calls.

How do we exploit this tendency? Don't assume your opponents (especially unknowns) are bluffing, and do assume that your opponents will think that you are bluffing. Thus, bluff less, and bluff-catch less. Be rational, not emotional.

Although I mainly just wanted to talk about a key to beating $25PLO online, the concept does tie in loosely with this recent hand:

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
CO ($34.11)
Hero (Button) ($27.54)
SB ($60.66)
BB ($31.60)
UTG ($46.27)
MP ($55.82)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10s, Kd, 10c, 9h
3 folds, Hero bets $0.85, SB raises to $2.80, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.95

We can get into when to call 3-bets some other time (probably one of my biggest weaknesses). This is possibly a fold since I have no suits, but let's just move on, since it's aside from the point of this hand.

Flop: ($5.85) Kc, 4s, Jh (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($5.85) 6c (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, SB calls $4

I think it's good to bet here. I retake initiative and reduce the amount of guessing that I would otherwise be doing on the river. By which I mean that it takes a lot more strength for my opponent to check/call and then lead the river, than it would for him to lead out on the river after it checking through on the flop and turn.

When he calls, I'm probably not good, since I already expect him to have AAxx a lot. There aren't a whole lot of AQTx/QTxx type hands that wouldn't have led out on the flop with such good equity.

River: ($13.85) 7d (2 players)
SB checks, Hero?

So now the question becomes, can I shake him off of AAxx? The river completes some low straights, so it's at least a little bit scary. I bet the turn, so he may give me credit for K6. The problem is, by checking the flop, it seems unlikely to my opponent that I would have a stronger hand like KK/JJ/KJ.

Nevertheless, it's PLO, and you can't call 2 big barrels with just 1 pair, right?

Hero bets $11, SB calls $11

Total pot: $35.85 Rake: $1.79
Results:
Hero had 10s, Kd, 10c, 9h (one pair, Kings).
SB had Ad, Ah, 5s, 10h (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: SB won $34.06

The Valence Effect in full display. But really, this is one of those times where you just have to admit defeat, since it can be really hard to make people fold in PLO. This is especially true when you are only betting 2 streets, and not threatening to bet all 3 streets and potentially stack someone.

Pre-WSOP Rebound

I'm going to make a gradual attempt to revive this blog to a semi-regular posting state in the leadup to my Vegas trip during the WSOP (that would be June 19-23). There's a lot to catch up on, and I'm going to resist the urge to try to knock it all out in one post. So expect a couple of short posts while I get back into the groove and figure out how to layout where I am and where I'm heading in the world of poker.

I've been gone for a number of reasons, but I've been playing plenty. So why no posts? First, I think I just needed a break, in order to take my limited free time and put it all towards play.

Second, I was running thin on strategy content. Just before I started my hiatus, I was playing almost exclusively Rush PLO (.10-.25), and I hadn't gotten a full handle on how to play the game well. I was running through my processes in posts here, but it was very raw. I've played for 3 straight months since then, and my understanding of the game was progressed considerably.

The third reason I took a break was because I had an awful month in March and got burnt out. I have since plugged some leaks and turned things around. My confidence is high and I'm really enjoying the PLO action.

So that's that. I'll gather my results from the past few months and post them in a few days.

I can't get back into posting without a little hand history. So here's one to remind all that despite my professed confidence and recent win streak, I can still be a massive bonehead in big PLO pots:

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com
BB ($25)
UTG ($27.50)
MP ($10.14)
Hero (CO) ($25)
Button ($37.56)
SB ($10)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9s, 5d, 10d, 7d
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, 1 fold, BB checks

All 3 options are OK here IMO. It's a borderline playable hand, but I should probably prefer raising to limping. That said, I do use a mixed strategy that includes limping hands with big pairs (increase likelihood of set-over-set occurrence) and also limping from up front with strong-but-non-premium hands when I don't want to get 3-bet or to bloat a pot from OOP.

Flop: ($1.10) Kd, 5s, 8c (4 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero checks, Button checks

Turn: ($1.10) Js (4 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $1.10, Button raises to $4.40, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.30

I bet after picking up a wrap on the turn and then get raised. I should have broken it down like this: villian either has a big made hand or a draw. KKxx is possible, but he probably bets it on the flop to start building up a pot. JJxx makes sense and fits the line. He also could have picked up a big draw on the turn with something like QT9x with spades. Does he makes this big raise with KJ or some other 2-pair? Maybe, but this should probably be discounted.

In sum, I'm either behind against made hand, facing a bad spot on the river even if I hit, since I probably have to lead out and give villain a clear chance to get away. I also face the possibility of hitting my straight on a flush card, which would put me in another bad spot. The final possibility is that I am badly dominated by a bigger straight draw. Pretty rotten altogether, should be a fold.

River: ($9.90) 5c (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $9.90, Hero calls $9.90
So here we are...I've missed by draw, but rivered bottom trips. I check and villain pots it. The essence of the grossness of this spot has been highlighted. Consideration #1: The big pot-sized bet on the river usually means a monster. Why bluff for full pot when you can bluff for less. Consideration #2: Villain wouldn't be bluffing a counterfeited 2-pair hand. It has good but vulnerable showdown value, so why fire big? Consideration #3: Draws should be discounted on the turn, since villain has to fear that I have a big hand that might re-pop him off of a draw. Of course, I didn't think of that until long after the hand was over.

Not much in the way of good reasons to call, but that didn't stop me.

Total pot: $29.70 Rake: $1.48
Results:
Button had Jh, 4d, 8d, Jc (full house, Jacks over fives).
Hero had 9s, 5d, 10d, 7d (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: Button won $28.22

I'm back and as bad as ever!