I'm Reasonably Sure...

...that the difference between a mediocre and a solid winning PLO player at low-stakes is the ability to identify times when the 2nd nuts is no good. It's easy to get caught up in the absolute strength of your hand when it's the 2nd nuts. But it's a critical mistake to discard the context of the hand and to abandon your normal thought process and hand analysis.

Consider...

H1)
Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) ($27.29)
BB ($11.14)
UTG ($14.75)
MP ($36.30)
CO ($13.22)
Button ($26.39)
Preflop: Hero is SB with J, J, K, 7
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, 1 fold, Button calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.15, BB checks

Flop: ($1) 3, Q, 2 (4 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $0.50, 1 fold, Button raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 1 fold

Button makes a small raise but I'm definitely not folding the K-high flush.

Turn: ($4.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

I check and villain pots it again. Any chance that villain holds a small flush is gone. There's always an outside chance that he's blasting away blindly with a set, or possibly making a pure bluff, but that's mostly wishful thinking.

River: ($13.50) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $13.50, Hero calls $13.50

It's hard for this barrel to be anything but the nuts. Would the Q-high flush play it like this? You see, when you're holding the 2nd nuts in a spot like this, there's this self-pity trigger that comes into play. You know you are almost surely beat, but you have to call so that you can tell your tale of woe and bad luck. It's like you're calling just for the bad beat/bad luck story you know you have coming. This makes you (and me) 1) a self-absorbed sad sack and 2) a bad poker player.

Total pot: $40.50 Rake: $2.02
Results:
Button had A, 7, 4, 3 (flush, Ace high).
Hero had J, J, K, 7 (flush, King high).
Outcome: Button won $38.48

H2)
Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($97.30)
Hero (BB) ($91)
UTG ($50)
MP ($50)
CO ($154.80)
Button ($24.70)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K, Q, J, 9
3 folds, Button calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, Hero bets $2, Button calls $1.50, SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($6) K, 10, Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, 1 fold, SB calls $4

Pretty lovely flop, top 2-pair plus 2nd nut straight. Only the SB calls, who could have anything from the same straight to a set to 2-pair.

Turn: ($14) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, SB raises to $38, Hero calls $30

First, I thought about checking back this turn, given that we were playing almost 200BBs deep and I would hate a check-raise. Then I figured I'd bet to get a set to call and draw to a boat. Boom, the big check-raise. Again, I almost folded, but I convinced myself that he would make this play after picking up a spade draw to go with something like a set or 2-pair.

River: ($90) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $53.30 (All-In), Hero calls $47 (All-In)

I made the mistake of discounting the nuts on the turn, so when the river whiffed for the spade and boat draws, I figured I had to call the river. Another case of wishful, self-manipulative thinking. And a cardinal sin in this case, since it led to stacking off 200BBs deep.

Total pot: $184 Rake: $3
Results:
SB had 6, A, J, A (straight, Ace high).
Hero had K, Q, J, 9 (straight, King high).
Outcome: SB won $181

Bloated Pot, Scary Flop

An interesting spot came up twice in a short session last night - after 4-betting a single-suited AAxx PF, the flop comes monotone and my opponent ships into me. So gross, given the pot odds and the potential to be drawing close to dead.

In the first spot, the pot was actually 3-way:

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($8.87)
SB ($21.94)
BB ($11.43)
UTG ($25.81)
MP ($7.40)
Hero (CO) ($45.11)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A, 4, A, K
UTG calls $0.25, MP calls $0.25, Hero bets $1.25, 2 folds, BB raises to $4.35, UTG calls $4.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $17.75, BB calls $7.08 (All-In), UTG calls $13.40

Dead money from UTG makes this a must-4-bet. UTG bizarrely decides to call, leaving $8 behind.

Flop: ($47.28) 10, 9, J (3 players, 1 all-in)
UTG bets $8.06 (All-In), Hero folds

Wow, not sure how to script a worse flop. I'm getting almost 7-to-1 and I'm still not sure I can call. It's a 3 way pot and I can count 1,000 ways that I'm totally crushed here. I guess it's a fold.

Turn: ($47.28) 9 (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: ($47.28) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: $47.28 Rake: $2.36
Results:
BB had A, A, K, K (two pair, Aces and nines).
UTG had 6, 6, 8, Q (straight, Queen high).
Outcome: UTG won $44.92

The 668Q PF call off 70% of my stack to see a flop maneuver. Justly rewarded. I guess it was a good fold, but I still feel dirty.

This one was a much tougher call:

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP ($13.55)
CO ($66.20)
Button ($27.45)
SB ($47.55)
BB ($68.85)
Hero (UTG) ($69.25)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, J, 6, A
Hero bets $1.50, MP calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 2 folds, BB raises to $7.75, Hero raises to $26.50, 2 folds, BB calls $18.75

We start 140 BBs deep, so calling PF in position isn't a bad option either. But I still think 4-betting is better - I'll be shipping it or calling off on a vast majority of flops, and I'll be ahead a vast majority of the time.

Flop: ($56.25) 2, Q, 3 (2 players)
BB bets $42.35 (All-In),

An otherwise dry monotone flop, and my opponent shoves. Pretty nasty because the shove here is far bigger and the pot odds far worse than in the first hand. I'm holding the dry Ace, but it doesn't matter much b/c I expect villian to check far more often when he flops the nuts here. In fact, he should be checking almost all of the time when he flops a flush, since is almost surely calling off, and by checking, he gives me a chance to shove a ton of worse hands.

If he's somehow worried about me flopping a set or 2-pair and filling up, then he shouldn't, b/c I'm shipping those hands if checked to anyways.

There's 2 ways/reasons he is shoving here:
1) As a bluff/semi-bluff (hit the Q for one pair) on a scary board
2) He hit a flush or set on the flop and didn't give much thought to the fact that he might scare me off with a shove
3) He hit a flush or set and is trying to level me (i.e., shoving in a place where a flush shouldn't be shoving).

I think I want this one back. I give more creedence to 2) than 3), but I think it may be 1) enough of the time to call.
...
...
Hero folds
Total pot: $56.25 Rake: $2.80
Results:
BB didn't show
Outcome: BB won $53.45

Anybody hate this? Who calls off here?

I 4-bet planning to get it in on most flops, but I think I happened to run into a few worst-case scenarios here.