PLO: 3-Way All-In

I pledged to actually start posting some PLO cash hands and mine for interesting content, tough spots, and major leaks in my game. Well, I had this hand go down the other day...all of the action is pre-flop, but PLO can be a funny game pre-flop, playing far differently than NLHE, and providing a much higher frequency of multi-way all-in scenarios.

UTG is 43/9/2.5 over 92.
BB is 63/19/1.3 w/5.3% 3-bet over 41 hands.

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($47.10)
SB ($37.91)
BB ($30.09)
UTG ($29.01)
Hero (MP) ($28.42)
CO ($70.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, Q, A, 6
UTG bets $1.15,

Hero calls $1.15, <-- Kinda hate my hand, what with no suits and that ugly 6 dangler. But I'm never folding any AAxx hand to a single raise, especially in position. The set over set possibilities are yummy enough on their own to make this call automatic

CO calls $1.15, Button calls $1.15, 1 fold,

BB raises to $7.30, <-- It gets interesting here. This is almost always AAxx, although there's always the chance he's just some complete gamblerrific maniac. It's less likely, but he could also have a really strong rundown, like AKQJds or KQJTds.

UTG calls $6.15, <-- This is most definitely not AAxx, since he would be getting it in 100% of the time.

Hero raises to $28.37 (All-In), <-- One thing I know for sure - I can't just call, since there will be so many unattractive flops. But I think folding may actually be fine. Some analysis coming below.
2 folds, BB raises to $30.04 (All-In), UTG calls $21.66 (All-In)

Flop: ($88.99) 7, 8, 5 (3 players, 3 all-in)
Turn: ($88.99) Q (3 players, 3 all-in)
River: ($88.99) 4 (3 players, 3 all-in)
Total pot: $88.99 Rake: $3
Results:
BB had J, Q, 9, 10 (one pair, Queens).
UTG had 9, 9, 10, J (one pair, nines).
Hero had A, Q, A, 6 (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: BB won $1.18, Hero won $84.81

I remember pushing the button to ship my stack in, and I remember immediately regretting it. Then I saw all of the cards turn up, and the board race out so fast that I couldn't compute quickly enough whether my hand had held up or not. For some reason the Q seemed particularly bad. But then, I see it all being shipped my way.

I quickly went back and ran the odds, and here's where I was really stunned:

That's right, I was a 67% favorite to win in a 3-way all-in pre-flop PLO hand. I smiled at my good fortune and immediately felt vindicated for my pre-flop play. But then I started wondering about my original assumption - that at least one of my opponents held AAxx. So let's see what happens when we keep the rundown and give the 3rd opponent a mediocre single-suited AAxx hand:

This is pretty dramatic. Less than 7% to win outright, and only 22% equity. In other words, I most definitely want to avoid getting it all in here. And, interestingly, the suited rundown jumps up to being the favorite at 44% equity. So basically, given my assumption that I was up against an AAxx hand at least as strong as this one, I should probably have folded.

Now let's look at an even stronger AAxx hand, a double-suited hand with some connectedness:

My equity sinks down to 17%! And this confirms my original fear and bolsters my opinion of my starting hand - without suitedness, it is garbage.

But, we have to note a growing trend in PLO. As more players come to understand how well strong rundowns play against AAxx, we have to consider the possibility that more players will be willing to get all-in with these hands, and may even be the all-in aggressor. And as this hand reveals, when you end up going multi-way, if you have 2 hands with overlapping rundowns, you get a disastrous card cancellation effect (stealing each other's out) that absolutely murders your equity.

Ultimately, we have to know our opponents to know whether it will be wise to get in with a bad AAxx hand. Have we seen them get maniacal with rundowns? Have we seen them call off with these types of hands? In most cases, you will see 2 AAxx hands, and you are in big trouble. So I still think I should have mucked here.

One final note: Regarding the BB's PF 3-bet with the Q-high rundown, I think it's pretty bad, mainly b/c you have very little fold equity and will almost surely be taking a flop 3-handed or worse from OOP. And once the 3-bet has been called in 2 places, you are holding less than a PSB. Nevermind the possibility that someone with a dominating AAxx hand might be ready to get it in and have you in bad shape.