Monday, March 30, 2009

Top 2, Part 2

Hef's response to my post about playing top 2 pair in PLO got me thinking and made me realize that I barely scratched the surface of a topic that could be expounded on in pretty good depth. No, I'm not going to write a thesis on 2-pair on the flop in PLO, but I did want to respond and mention some other considerations.

Hef's contends that it is a better idea to not lead out of the flop with top 2, instead choosing a check/call line and re-evaluating on the turn. While this may be the correct approach in some situations, I think it is a flaw to always (or even frequently) take this line when flopping top 2.

Certainly, one's tendency to lead out with top-2 should depend mostly on the aggressiveness of other players in the pot. Basically, I would agree that we'll have a hard time continuing against a raise (without any draws of our own), so we need to evaluate that likelihood. Conversely, if we lead out and get one or two callers but no raises, we will almost always have the best hand right now. This is because low-stakes PLO is typically being played in a very straightforward manner right now. Players tend to push hard with top or middle set, and solid players will also push hard with big multi-way draws (and thus my suggestion that we play much more cautiously on draw-heavy boards). But with simple draws, like OESDs or naked flush draws, these players will just call, and they will also call with weaker 2-pair hands (top+bottom or bottom 2).

We create a number of problems for ourselves when we check into multiple opponents after flopping top 2:

1) We do nothing to define our opponents' hands. If a player in position leads after it checks around on the flop, does he have a strong hand, or is he just trying to steal the pot after no one else seemed interested? We could easily end up in a position where we check-call multiple streets and get taken direct to Valuetown.

2) By checking we potentially allow it to check around, giving a free card that is very unlikely to help us, but is likely to help someone else, either by generating a backdoor draw or spiking a set for someone who would have folded their pair to a bet on the flop.

3) By checking we forego extracting value from draws that are unlikely to pay us off on later streets. By which I mean that drawing hands will only call bets when there are still cards to draw to. If you check the flop and then bet the turn, you will be getting at most one street of value from a drawing hand. But if you bet the flop and then also bet a blank turn, you may get 2 streets of value, and you might also get a third street of value by taking a check-call line on a brickish river in order to induce a bluff from a missed draw.

For these reasons, I prefer leading out when flopping 2-pair from OOP. But, not always. One other consideration is how big your top 2-pair is. Getting value from a top 2-pair hand is of course contingent upon obvious straight and flush draws not coming in, but it is also contingent upon someone else not making a bigger 2-pair. So, when your top 2 is 9-5 on a 9-5-3 flop, or 7-8 on a 7-8-2 flop, I would be less likely to fire out, since your top 2 will sometimes be beaten when an overcard hits on the turn, making your opponent a bigger 2-pair. Generally, these hands, even though they are top 2-pair, have to be considered weaker hands, simply because, by the river, they fall behind a better 2-pair much more easily than hitting top 2 with K-Q on a K-Q-6 flop, or A-J on an A-J-5 board.

And now, after all of this blabbering, I plan to try to collect some hands as evidence. Unfortunately, almost all of my PLO play to date has come on Bodog, where it is a royal pain to collect hand history (some sort of "hand grabber" tool is required). Therefore, I plan on playing some more PLO on FTP, and at some point soon I will hopefully have some evidence that the ideas presented here are sensible and effective. Or evidence that I'm a spewy donk! Either way, it should be interesting, so stay tuned.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Playing Top 2 In PLO

I played some round-n-round $1/$2 NLHE/PLO at a local poker house last night, and frittered away 2 buy-ins. There were 2 big hands, and neither was played all that badly on my part, just standard PLO variance. The disappointing part was that I lost both buy-ins to the one guy at the table who is a known super-fish. This is basically the guy that everyone at the table has their sights set on. The best indication of this guy's rep is that the guy who runs the game will send out texts advertising whenever this fishy dude is at the table, knowing it will draw out a bunch of people who want a shot at him. I'm sure that the rest of the table was doubly frothy at the sight of his stack climbing up towards the ceiling as he took pot after pot away from me.

In the first big hand, I was holding a relatively weak AA69 hand, with one Ace suited in spades. I was UTG+1 and just limped for $2. Next to act raised to $10, one MP player called, and Donkasaurus repotted to $45. I only had $135 total, so now I was in a position to repot and basically get it all-in, knowing that I was probably in the lead. So, I repopped to $115, and it folded to the Donk, who called. Flop came 6-7-J with 2 spades, I put in my last $18, villain called, turned down my offer to run it multiple times, and then it ran out 2-5, no spades. I announced my unimproved AA, and the Donk stared at his hand for a second and announced his rivered 2-pair, 5s and 7s. He got it in with 4-5-7-8, single-suited. C'est PLO.

Second hand was equally standard. I raised from EP with a pretty 9c-9h-Ts-Jh, got re-raised to $35 by the same dude, called, saw a nice 7x-8c-Qc flop, and got it in on the flop. Villain had flopped 2-pair, Qs and 8s, and I had a wrap, with 12 straight outs. I bricked again and was busto.
No problem with my play, like I said, just basic PLO variance. Now, in the course of this session, I got to thinking about one of the most difficult holdings to play in PLO - flopped 2-pair hands. Generally, 2-pair is the bare minimum made hand that merits continuing beyond the flop in PLO. Now the situations that arise are more numerous than can be analyzed here, so I'll focus on one specific spot - flopping top 2-pair or top and bottom pair (with no other draws) from early position.

Flopping top 2 or top and bottom from EP is very tough to play. I am assuming a hand that does not have any other straight or flush draws, meaning that your hand is very unlikely to improve. The first dilemma is whether or not to lead out on the flop. I would say that it's a toss-up, and depends on a number of factors:

- The aggressiveness of your opponents. If you are likely to get raised, then you are probably better off checking with the intention of calling and trying to fade an ugly turn card. A two-pair hand with no draws really can't stand a raise, so if you think a raise is likely, you can't lead the flop.

- The number of opponents. In a big multiway pot, I would be more likely to bet, so as to thin the ranks, get value from drawing hands. Any free card in a big multiway pot is likely to make someone's hand better than yours, or allow hands that miss the flop to pick up backdoor draws. Against 2 or 3 opponents, I'm more comfortable giving up a free card, since there are fewer hands to sweat out. You might be missing out on value by checking in this spot, but that must be weighed against the risk of being check-raised, and the fact that 2-pair is not a strong enough hand to fire 3 barrels, and therefore you are faced with the prospect of checking into your opponents on future streets, and having to make tough decisions if you are bet into after checking.

- Board texture. On any flop that contains a made straight (needless to say for a made flush), I very likely won't lead out, unless it's heads-up. The strength of a 2-pair hand is greatly reduced on any board where there are multiple ways to hold a made straight, and I'd be inclined to check-fold.

You are looking for a somewhat dry flop to lead on - one where the draws are limited and transparent. You don't want to fire on a flop that contains both flush draws and straight draws, because you will have a hard time on later streets determining if your opponents have hit their draws. Thus, I might fire on a Ks-8c-2s flop with K-8, since I am likely getting called by a spade draw or K-2, but I would check on a Ks-8c-7s board, since the combination of flush and straight draws is too great.

If the flop is totally dry (rainbow, no straight draws), you are very likely to either take it down (a good result), or get a worse 2-pair to call (very good result). If you are raised, you are likely facing a set and can fold.

The next question is, if you plan to lead out, how much should you bet? I like to bet about 2/3 of the pot. A full pot bet is a mistake, especially from OOP, since it unnecessarily bloats the pot and opens you up to larger-sized raises. Anything smaller than 2/3, and you are giving a decent price to backdoor draws, which are hard to read.

The main problem with playing 2-pair from OOP is that it is usually a mistake to fire multiple barrels, since 2-pair is a mediocre holding in PLO. But, you telegraph the weakness of your holding if you check the turn after betting the flop. Good opponents will pick up on this and blow you off of your hand on the turn. Since you are looking at getting at most 2 streets of value, you have to carefully evaluate how to do so. If you are inclined to put your opponent on a flush draw, you are most likely to get 2 streets of value (assuming the flush doesn't get there) by betting the flop and turn, then checking the river. You are most likely to get 2 streets of value from a worse 2-pair hand by either betting the flop/river or the turn/river. If your opponent is aggressive, you can consider just betting either the flop or turn, and then check/calling the river. Of course, getting value on the river is dependent on the board bricking out. Any flush or obvious straight cards, and you basically have to shut it down and check/fold.

The key thing to realize is that 2-pair is a weak holding, even top 2, and we should always be willing to toss it away when facing any big-time action. We play hands in PLO to flop sets, boats, and big straight and flush draws. When we flop 2-pair, we should be happy to win a small pot, and we should be hesitant to make it anything other than a small pot.

Anybody have any disputes with this way of playing 2-pair? Any general approach people take with the holding from OOP?

Monday, March 23, 2009

Butchery

AKA, I'm a donk and have no business thinking about moving up levels

I promised suckouts, but I don't have them yet. Instead of waiting around for karma to hit me back for my recent heater, I decided I'd take things into my own hands and end the heater on my own accord. Here are two of the worst hands from a session last night that saw me, in short order, vomit away 4 buyins.


Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
MP: 103.40 BB
CO: 201.40 BB
BTN: 122.44 BB
Hero (SB): 153.52 BB
BB: 166.88 BB
UTG: 121.28 BB
Pre-Flop: A 4 dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, CO raises to 3BB, BTN folds, Hero calls 2.6BB, BB calls 2BB
PF call is questionable, but I had some doubts as to the skill level of the PFR, and had been looking for a spot to get him to stack off. Figured I'd take a chance with a hand that could flop some big draws.

Flop: (9BB) 5 3 A (3 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets 4BB, Hero raises to 14BB, BB calls 14BB, CO calls 10BB
Not sure I can explain the reason for my check-raise here. It looks like a donkerrific spazz-out with a marginal hand. I figured I could end it right away with a raise here, and possibly get some raggy Aces to fold. Now that both players have called, I should probably put an end to the spewage.

Turn: (51BB) 5 3 A [ 8 ] (3 Players)
Hero bets 32BB, BB calls 32BB, CO folds
A pretty blank turn. I hate my bet here, because the only hands that I can really beat are A2 (which I'll be splitting with by the end anyways) and baby hands like 54/43/32, and I really don't want to bloat the pot here OOP, since it will make my river decision that much tougher.

River: (115BB) 5 3 A 8 [ 3 ] (2 Players)
Hero bets 68BB, BB calls 68BB
Okay, now I can only beat 54, so I'm basically turning my hand into a bluff with this big river barrel, hoping to get hands like AJ-A9/A7/A6 to fold. Villain timed all the way down and finally called. I didn't expect to see the hand that he was holding.

Results: 251BB Pot (12BB Rake)
Hero showed A 4 (two pair, Aces and Threes) and LOST (-117BB NET)
BB showed 5 A (two pair, Aces and Fives) and WON 239BB (+122BB NET)

Is the timing bad (running into a good hand), or was this just an awful idea? I don't bluff often, so why would I choose this hand to do it, from OOP and with a holding that has some showdown value. Ugh, what a spewfest.

And this one is actually much worse...

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: 104.80 BB
BTN: 97.12 BB
SB: 87.76 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 137.96 BB
MP: 114.24 BB
Pre-Flop: J J dealt to Hero (BB)
2 folds, CO raises to 3.4BB, BTN raises to 9.8BB, SB folds, Hero calls 8.8BB, CO folds
JJ from the BB in a 3-bet pot. What to do here? I think there are 3 decent options -
1) Fold. Seems nitty, but probably quite sound.
2) Against an aggressive 3-bettor (maybe 8% or higher), 4-bet, and if the original raiser folds, re-evaluate based on 3-bettor's action.
3) Call, with the following plan: Check-fold to any overcards on the flop; on an undercard flop, either attack (c-rai), or check-call and fold to a 2nd barrel.

With that in mind, please take note of the gawdawful tack that I take here.

Flop: (23.4BB) 3 6 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 19BB, Hero calls 19BB

Turn: (61.4BB) 3 6 4 [ 3 ] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 35BB, Hero raises to 71.2BB and is All-In, BTN calls 33.32BB and is All-In

River: (198.04BB) 3 6 4 3 [ 9 ] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 198.04BB Pot (9.88BB Rake)
BTN showed K K (two pair, Kings and Threes) and WON 188.16BB (+91.04BB NET)
Hero showed J J (two pair, Jacks and Threes) and LOST (-97.12BB NET)

Ah yes! The strategy of calling the flop, gaining no information, and then shoving over a 2nd barrel on the turn with no fold equity! Ladies and Gentlemen, I'll be here all week!

Given the difficulty of playing JJ from OOP, potentially against 2 villains, it is probably best to either fold or play it as a pure set-mine, in which case I'm probably only getting the right odds if the original PFR smooth calls, which is not guaranteed. Then, I have to have the discipline to follow through on the set-mine plan and fold on an undercard flop.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Misclick

It's worth taking a moment to celebrate a session where everything goes right, since most of what shows up in a blog is just reflections on badly played hands, tough spots, and cold decks. Those bad sessions are the times when you're given to reflection, when you are wont to self-examine and seek explanation, and ultimately to avoid a future bad streak.

Out of the 14 flops that I saw with pocket pairs, I flopped sets on 5 of them, and turned a set on another one. But it was frustrating, since I was getting no action on my sets, until finally I got paid off on this one:


Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BB: 85.60 BB
UTG: 4.96 BB
CO: 127.52 BB
Hero (BTN): 259.56 BB
SB: 109.60 BB
Pre-Flop: 6 6 dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, Hero raises to 3.4BB, SB folds, BB calls 2.4BB

Flop: (7.2BB) 7 2 6 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 6BB, BB calls 6BB
Gotta bet your sets, especially here, since so many overpairs and small suited connectors will pay for it.

Turn: (19.2BB) 7 2 6 [ J ] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 14BB, BB calls 14BB

River: (47.2BB) 7 2 6 J [ 2 ] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 40BB, BB calls 40BB
Perfect river, and a big 3rd barrel for value. If he hasn't believed me for 2 streets, why would he now?

Results: 127.2BB Pot (6.36BB Rake)
BB mucked T T (two pair, Tens and Twos) and LOST (-63.4BB NET)
Hero showed 6 6 (a full house, Sixes full of Twos) and WON 120.84BB (+57.44BB NET)
That was pretty standard, but indicative how well I was running. But this was even better...

2 hands against the same villain, this hand came first:

ull Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
SB: 15.12 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 141.96 BB
Hero (MP): 120.24 BB
CO: 82.68 BB
BTN: 66.12 BB
Pre-Flop: A K dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG calls 1BB, Hero raises to 4.4BB, CO folds, BTN raises to 66.12BB and is All-In, 3 folds,
Hero?

I'm actually pretty psyched to get it in here, since donks will NEVER make this push with either of the 2 hands that dominate me. There's probably a 65% chance that he has a middlish pocket pair, like 99-JJ, a 10% chance he has AK, and the remaining 25% is an A-x hand that I dominate. Easy call.
...
Hero calls 61.72BB

Flop: (134.64BB) 4 2 A (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Turn: (134.64BB) 4 2 A [ J ] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: (134.64BB) 4 2 A J [ K ] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 134.64BB Pot (6.72BB Rake)
Hero showed A K (two pair, Aces and Kings) and WON 127.92BB (+61.8BB NET)
BTN showed J A (two pair, Aces and Jacks) and LOST (-66.12BB NET)

Super sweaty turn, but a sweet resuck on the river.

Then, 4 hands later, I peg him as a little tilty and pick up AK again....


Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BTN: 14.72 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 140.96 BB
Hero (UTG): 182.04 BB
MP: 82.68 BB
CO: 100 BB
Pre-Flop: K A dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to 3.4BB, MP calls 3.4BB, CO raises to 15BB, 3 folds, Hero raises to 182.04BB and is All-In, MP folds, CO calls 85BB and is All-In

Flop: (204.8BB) K K Q (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Turn: (204.8BB) K K Q [ 4 ] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: (204.8BB) K K Q 4 [ 7 ] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 204.8BB Pot (10.24BB Rake)
Hero showed K A (three of a kind, Kings) and WON 194.56BB (+94.56BB NET)
CO showed J J (two pair, Kings and Jacks) and LOST (-100BB NET)

Double-scoop! Up 2 buy-ins within 4 hands, and by the grace of AK! That's a pretty good sign that you're running hot.

But the real kicker came here...


Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: 207.44 BB
MP: 93.28 BB
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 60.52 BB
SB: 75 BB
Hero (BB): 221.96 BB
Pre-Flop: 9 6 dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, BTN calls 1BB, SB calls 0.6BB, Hero checks

Flop: (3BB) Q T 8 (3 Players) <-- Low-end double gutter, worth a bet to try to take it down
SB checks,
Hero bets 220.96BB and is All-In, <-- Oh Damn! Misclick shove!! Please don't let anyone have a hand.
...
BTN folds, <-- Phew!
SB calls 74BB and is All-In <-- No! I'm an idiot.
SB shows T Q
I still have 8 straight outs.

Turn: (151BB) Q T 8 [ 9 ] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: (151BB) Q T 8 9 [ 9 ] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Or runner runner trips outs!!

Results: 151BB Pot (7.52BB Rake)
SB showed T Q (two pair, Queens and Tens) and LOST (-75BB NET)
Hero showed 9 6 (three of a kind, Nines) and WON 143.48BB (+68.48BB NET)

Karma says the next post will involve some brutal suckouts against, not for. Til then.