I Hate Trips (Hand Results)

This post includes the hand results from the 2 hands recently posted in which I hold trips and face heat:

H1)
Villain here had solid stats - 17/12/3.0 over 84 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: $84.70
CO: $32.20
Hero (BTN): $56.75
SB: $50
BB: $60.85
Pre-Flop: 3 K dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1

Standard button steal.

Flop: ($3.25) 8 3 J (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, BB calls $2.25

Turn: ($7.75) 3 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB calls $5

River: ($17.75) 6 (2 Players)
BB bets $10,
Hero?

2 for call, 1 for raise. This is the type of spot where I will almost always be looking to maximize value. My villain's line is really funny - He check-calls 2 streets on a board with some draws, and then after none of them come in and a blank hits the river, he leads out for just over half the pot. It's tempting to think that this might be a bluff attempt on a missed draw, but if this is the type of guy to get aggro-bluffy with a draw, wouldn't he have stuck in some sort of raise on an earlier street?

It looks more likely to be a value bet, leading the river to ensure that I don't check behind with a middle strength hand like J-x/8-x/99/TT. The most likely range of hands is something like this - AJ/J8/88/66/3-x. AJ and J8 are probably discounted here, since they are vulnerable to overpair hands and are likely to be looking for a cheap showdown. That leaves 88, the unlikely 66, and 3-x. Unfortunately, the most likely 3-x hand here is A3, although I suppose a loose 34s or 35s can't be ignored.

All of that said, I decided to pass up a raise. Something just didn't feel right about that line. I still sort of think I should be raising here, but here's how it played out...
...
...
...
Hero calls $10

Results: $37.75 Pot ($1.85 Rake)

Hero mucked 3 K (three of a kind, Threes) and LOST (-$18.75 NET)

BB showed 8 8 (a full house, Eights full of Threes) and WON $35.90 (+$17.15 NET)


H2)
I'm pretty sure I had some sort of stats on my villain in this next hand, but I don't have them now. So assume a random open-limping type.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (BB): $26.70
UTG: $12.94
MP: $13.51
CO: $25.15
BTN: $22.49
SB: $3.25
Pre-Flop: Q 3 dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, BTN folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks

Flop: ($1) Q 5 Q (4 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.80, MP folds, CO calls $0.80, SB folds

Turn: ($2.60) 7 (2 Players)
Hero bets $1.75, CO raises to $5,
Hero?

Pretty gross spot. I have no kicker, meaning that there's almost nothing I can beat here besides a horribly overplayed pocket pair or 7-x (this would definitely classify as Optimistic Misdonkification), or a bluff/semi-bluff. If I'm gonna dig my heels in, then my plan has to be to call here, and then check/call the river. Otherwise, I should fold straightaway to the raise. The one absolutely stupid and donkerrific thing I cannot do is call the raise and then fold on the river. Uh oh...
...
...
...
Hero calls $3.25

River: ($12.60) 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $10, Hero folds

Results: $12.60 Pot ($0.63 Rake)

CO mucked and WON $11.97 (+$5.92 NET)

River Raise Sizing

I ran into 2 similar spots in a recent session that have me wondering about my approach to river raises with strong hands. In both cases, against different opponents, I river the nuts and get led into with a PSB. Now this is where my reasoning and assumptions may start to falter. Smart poker players will often make big river bets, near pot-sized, with strong made hands, knowing that it is often perceived as bluffy ("Why bet so much with a monster? Don't you want to bet an amount that will get called?"). Well, there's that little bit of reverse psychology, but there's also the important details of that hand in question - What has my opponent done to reveal the relative strength of their hand, and based on that probable strength, how big of a bet can I get them to call?

If I know my opponent likes to make a PSB with a strong hand, then I should be inclined to make a hefty raise, knowing that it will be hard for my opponent to fold.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $50.75
BTN: $91.40
SB: $82.55
Hero (BB): $52.20
UTG: $50
MP: $23.45
Pre-Flop: 8 7 dealt to Hero (BB)
4 folds, SB raises to $1, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($2) T 2 J (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($2) 6 (2 Players)
SB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $2, SB calls $1.50

River: ($6) 9 (2 Players)
SB bets $5, Hero raises to $21,
...
...
So not only do I river a flush, but I river the immortal straight flush, which is extra lovely given that it so well disguised and likely to get action from big flushes. So I make a full pot raise and...
...
...
...
SB folds

Results: $16 Pot ($0.80 Rake)
Hero mucked 8 7 and WON $15.20 (+$7.20 NET)

I think I miss a couple of clues here. One is the PF min-raise, a likely sign that I'm not up against the sharpest of poker players. Not only does this make it more likely that he would call a smaller raise (say to $12-$14), but also that he might come over the top with any type of flush.

The second time around, against a different opponent, the line and situation are quite different...

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: $30.66
Hero (MP): $32.99
CO: $25.57
BTN: $31.53
SB: $25.10
BB: $25.76
Pre-Flop: 8 7 dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 3 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 6 2 5 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.20, BB calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.20) K (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

I could certainly 2-barrel here and likely take the pot down, but I'm willing to take a free card, and figure to get more action (if I hit) after taking a bet-check-bet line.

River: ($4.20) 9 (2 Players)
BB bets $4.20, Hero raises to $16,
...
...
Bingo once for the 9, and twice for the pot-sized lead. Now, given the line here, my opponent's range is pretty wide. There aren't a lot of monster hands out there, so the hands that I should be targeting for value are hands like K-x, and medium and small pocket pairs like 77/88/TT/JJ. Sets are much less likely given the action. So, a medium-sized raise is probably in order, somewhere along the lines of 2.5x-3x. Instead, I make it 4x....
...
...
...
BB folds

Results: $12.60 Pot ($0.63 Rake)
Hero mucked 8 7 and WON $11.97 (+$5.72 NET)

Any insights out there on how to approach these spots, or river raising in general?

Hindsight's 20/20, so we'll check in the next time I make a sad, small raise, and get called by the 2nd nuts. At least, the next time around, I hope to have fully considered my opponent and the situation.

Value Betting a Scary Board - Results

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BB: 167.36 BB
UTG: 98.60 BB
MP: 93.56 BB
Hero (CO): 134.52 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 100 BB
Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to 3.4BB, 2 folds, BB calls 2.4BB

Flop: (7.2BB) 3 9 Q (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 5.8BB, BB calls 5.8BB

Turn: (18.8BB) 3 9 Q [ J ] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 14BB, BB calls 14BB

River: (46.8BB) 3 9 Q J [ 8 ] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero?

I didn't really think too long before deciding this was definitely a good spot to value bet. Even though there are a decent number of 10s in my opponent's range, he will on average be betting them on the river, since I almost have to have either a straight of my own, a set, or maybe top 2-pair to be considering value betting here. The rest of the time, I'm checking behind and he's losing value.

But this is clearly a bet-fold situation, since I will almost always be facing a 10 if I get raised. A bluff-raise is possible, but unlikely enough such as to not make it warrant much of a fret. Here's how it played out:

Hero bets 24BB, Opponent moves all-in for 87.8BB, Hero folds.

It sucked to get raised all-in on the end like that, but not really much of a decision at that point, IMO. Beg to differ?