River Raise Sizing

I ran into 2 similar spots in a recent session that have me wondering about my approach to river raises with strong hands. In both cases, against different opponents, I river the nuts and get led into with a PSB. Now this is where my reasoning and assumptions may start to falter. Smart poker players will often make big river bets, near pot-sized, with strong made hands, knowing that it is often perceived as bluffy ("Why bet so much with a monster? Don't you want to bet an amount that will get called?"). Well, there's that little bit of reverse psychology, but there's also the important details of that hand in question - What has my opponent done to reveal the relative strength of their hand, and based on that probable strength, how big of a bet can I get them to call?

If I know my opponent likes to make a PSB with a strong hand, then I should be inclined to make a hefty raise, knowing that it will be hard for my opponent to fold.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $50.75
BTN: $91.40
SB: $82.55
Hero (BB): $52.20
UTG: $50
MP: $23.45
Pre-Flop: 8 7 dealt to Hero (BB)
4 folds, SB raises to $1, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($2) T 2 J (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($2) 6 (2 Players)
SB bets $0.50, Hero raises to $2, SB calls $1.50

River: ($6) 9 (2 Players)
SB bets $5, Hero raises to $21,
...
...
So not only do I river a flush, but I river the immortal straight flush, which is extra lovely given that it so well disguised and likely to get action from big flushes. So I make a full pot raise and...
...
...
...
SB folds

Results: $16 Pot ($0.80 Rake)
Hero mucked 8 7 and WON $15.20 (+$7.20 NET)

I think I miss a couple of clues here. One is the PF min-raise, a likely sign that I'm not up against the sharpest of poker players. Not only does this make it more likely that he would call a smaller raise (say to $12-$14), but also that he might come over the top with any type of flush.

The second time around, against a different opponent, the line and situation are quite different...

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: $30.66
Hero (MP): $32.99
CO: $25.57
BTN: $31.53
SB: $25.10
BB: $25.76
Pre-Flop: 8 7 dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 3 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) 6 2 5 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.20, BB calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.20) K (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

I could certainly 2-barrel here and likely take the pot down, but I'm willing to take a free card, and figure to get more action (if I hit) after taking a bet-check-bet line.

River: ($4.20) 9 (2 Players)
BB bets $4.20, Hero raises to $16,
...
...
Bingo once for the 9, and twice for the pot-sized lead. Now, given the line here, my opponent's range is pretty wide. There aren't a lot of monster hands out there, so the hands that I should be targeting for value are hands like K-x, and medium and small pocket pairs like 77/88/TT/JJ. Sets are much less likely given the action. So, a medium-sized raise is probably in order, somewhere along the lines of 2.5x-3x. Instead, I make it 4x....
...
...
...
BB folds

Results: $12.60 Pot ($0.63 Rake)
Hero mucked 8 7 and WON $11.97 (+$5.72 NET)

Any insights out there on how to approach these spots, or river raising in general?

Hindsight's 20/20, so we'll check in the next time I make a sad, small raise, and get called by the 2nd nuts. At least, the next time around, I hope to have fully considered my opponent and the situation.

Close Call (For A Non-Degen Nit)?

I was going to post this hand under the post title "Faith Restored," citing it as evidence that there is still easy money out there and plenty of incentive to keep the grind going. Then I started looking closer and wondered if I made a mistake...

Villain is 22/18/2.27 over 700 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $29.06
BTN: $16.10
SB: $46.24
BB: $39.28
UTG: $25.35
Hero (MP): $42.38
Pre-Flop: T A dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.85, CO calls $0.85, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.05) 3 6 8 (2 Players)
Hero bets $1.40, CO calls $1.40

Turn: ($4.85) 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $4.85, Hero raises to $16,
...
...
I will 2-barrel a turn like this about 75% of the time, but I will occasionally check back, especially during a session like this where I had already been seen taking a C-bet flop, check/fold turn line. The pot-sized turn bet is nice, since it is more often a bluff than a 2/3-3/4 pot bet. Figuring that my FE is pretty high now, I make a strong raise, expecting to take it down.
...
...
CO raises to $26.81 and is All-In,
...
...
So my opponent moves over the top without much hesitation, and although I'm not thrilled about it, I assume straight off that I'm committed. But looking back, it's actually pretty close.

If my opponent has 2-pair or better, I'm 4.5-1 to win, and getting almost exactly 4.5-1 in pot odds.

Of course, if you add in weaker flush draws and pair + FD hands, even some hands like JJ/QQ (which my hand is 25% against), it becomes an easy call. But if my opponent is only a little bit deeper, say $5-$10, and plays such that I can reasonably put him on 2-pair or better, this could become a nitty fold.

Then, factoring in my opponent's aggressive-ish stats, it becomes a pretty easy call. I'm not saying I would ever fold, but I am saying that there are some slightly modified cases where maybe I should.

And anyways, back to the part about restoring faith. Take a look at what he shows down.
...
...
Hero calls $10.81

River: ($58.47) 3 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $58.47 Pot ($2.92 Rake)
CO showed K J (a pair of Threes) and LOST (-$29.06 NET)
Hero showed T A (a pair of Threes) and WON $55.55 (+$26.49 NET)

Made me sweat his 6-outer river draw, but still, man, what on earth was he thinking. That I really was nitty enough to make that fold?

In unrelated news, I'm watching last night's Poker After Dark cash game, which is of quite good quality. PAD has now earned a spot on my DVR queue, at least as long as it stays a cash game.

Blind Battle Big Bets - Results

Results from the 2 blind battle hands from Tuesday.

Hand 1)
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $21.29
BTN: $20.46
SB: $24.25
Hero (BB): $45.56
UTG: $24.77
MP: $6.61
Pre-Flop: T A dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $0.25, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.60) A J A (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.25, Hero raises to $0.90, UTG calls $0.65

I raise the flop here with trip A's, good kicker, mostly to build a pot and get value from a J or weaker A. Since villain limped UTG, AJ is the only hand I am worried about. There are a ton more A-x hands in his range, and a lot of J's too.

Turn: ($2.40) A J A [ 8 ] (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $5, Hero calls $5

I check the turn, hoping to make my flop raise look like a one-and-done bluff, or else a weak J, insufficient to continue firing. The villain does something weird here, though, and fires 2x the pot. This is almost never a value-type hand, so I really don't think he can have a weak J here. That leaves bluffs and monsters. Now I'm only worried about AJ and A8. But since monsters might also include some A-x hands that I crush, I don't think I can fold here.

I can raise here to get value from a weaker A, but he'll probably fire the river with that hand anyway, and in case he is running a bluff, I figure my best shot is to leave him some rope and let him consider firing the river again.

River: ($12.40) A J A 8 [ K ] (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $18.62 and is All-In,
Hero?

So now it's 2 consecutive overbets. This is a really strong line, and I'm not sure I've ever seen it as a bluff before. Can I call here? Should I have played the turn differently?
...
...
Hero calls $18.62

Results: $49.64 Pot ($2.48 Rake)
Hero mucked T A (three of a kind, Aces) and LOST (-$24.77 NET)
UTG showed 8 8 (a full house, Eights full of Aces) and WON $47.16 (+$22.39 NET)

Villain hits a gross turn and works me over for the maximum. It's really hard to get away from my hand here, but perhaps I should have picked up that the big overbet was a shrewd attempt to maximize the value of his improbably monster. Is it too results-oriented to say so?

Hand 2)
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $25.51
BTN: $27.99
SB: $37.69
Hero (BB): $48.71
UTG: $16.40
MP: $85.74
Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (BB)
4 folds, SB raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.50) 5 5 J (2 Players)
SB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

After 3-betting PF, villain leads out for full pot. There are obviously a lot more J's than 5's in his range, and also some hands like 66-TT that might lead out in a similar way. I can raise and possibly get value from a QJ-AJ type hand, but I risk folding out medium pocket pairs on weaker J hands that are more likely to pay me off on later streets.

Turn: ($13.50) 5 5 J [ K ] (2 Players)
SB bets $13.50,
Hero?
...
...
Hero calls $13.50

River: ($40.50) 5 5 J K [ 7 ] (2 Players)
SB bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

This is a somewhat interesting street too. After leading for full pot 2 streets in a row, villain leads for the minimum, broadcasting serious doubt about the strength of his hand. I briefly considered a raise for value, but remembered that he may be slowing down here with a number of hands that I am still behind, like AK/KJ/KQ. So I just called.

Results: $41 Pot ($2.05 Rake)
SB showed J J (a full house, Jacks full of Fives) and WON $38.95 (+$18.45 NET)
Hero mucked Q Q (two pair, Queens and Fives) and LOST (-$20.50 NET)

Both of these hands are basically minor coolers, but my intention was not to vent about my crap luck in these spots. Rather, it was to demonstrate that a lot of caution should be taken when facing solid players making really big bets.

In hand 1, my opponent overbet the pot, knowing that it was likely that I was holding an A and would not be able to lay my hand down against his turned boat. This was a smart move to extract maximum value from a strong but not monster holding.

In hand 2, my opponent made a big bet, taking the risk that I might fold in order to build up a pot from OOP with a monster, and possibly to induce me to raise. You could argue that I should have folded the turn, but I feel confident that I lost the minimum in this spot. I was lucky that he tried to induce a bluff or value bet on the river, instead of just shoving it in, putting me in a wicked spot and possibly stacking me.