Thursday, May 7, 2009

Close Call (For A Non-Degen Nit)?

I was going to post this hand under the post title "Faith Restored," citing it as evidence that there is still easy money out there and plenty of incentive to keep the grind going. Then I started looking closer and wondered if I made a mistake...

Villain is 22/18/2.27 over 700 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $29.06
BTN: $16.10
SB: $46.24
BB: $39.28
UTG: $25.35
Hero (MP): $42.38
Pre-Flop: T A dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.85, CO calls $0.85, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.05) 3 6 8 (2 Players)
Hero bets $1.40, CO calls $1.40

Turn: ($4.85) 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $4.85, Hero raises to $16,
...
...
I will 2-barrel a turn like this about 75% of the time, but I will occasionally check back, especially during a session like this where I had already been seen taking a C-bet flop, check/fold turn line. The pot-sized turn bet is nice, since it is more often a bluff than a 2/3-3/4 pot bet. Figuring that my FE is pretty high now, I make a strong raise, expecting to take it down.
...
...
CO raises to $26.81 and is All-In,
...
...
So my opponent moves over the top without much hesitation, and although I'm not thrilled about it, I assume straight off that I'm committed. But looking back, it's actually pretty close.

If my opponent has 2-pair or better, I'm 4.5-1 to win, and getting almost exactly 4.5-1 in pot odds.

Of course, if you add in weaker flush draws and pair + FD hands, even some hands like JJ/QQ (which my hand is 25% against), it becomes an easy call. But if my opponent is only a little bit deeper, say $5-$10, and plays such that I can reasonably put him on 2-pair or better, this could become a nitty fold.

Then, factoring in my opponent's aggressive-ish stats, it becomes a pretty easy call. I'm not saying I would ever fold, but I am saying that there are some slightly modified cases where maybe I should.

And anyways, back to the part about restoring faith. Take a look at what he shows down.
...
...
Hero calls $10.81

River: ($58.47) 3 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $58.47 Pot ($2.92 Rake)
CO showed K J (a pair of Threes) and LOST (-$29.06 NET)
Hero showed T A (a pair of Threes) and WON $55.55 (+$26.49 NET)

Made me sweat his 6-outer river draw, but still, man, what on earth was he thinking. That I really was nitty enough to make that fold?

In unrelated news, I'm watching last night's Poker After Dark cash game, which is of quite good quality. PAD has now earned a spot on my DVR queue, at least as long as it stays a cash game.

1 comment:

WillWonka said...

You just don't expect play like that from a person with those stats; but it is good to know that there are people out there like that. Truthfully, I seem to be seeing more and more of those people lately.

I've recorded PAD; but have not watched them for a while. I need to.