Lost On The River - Results

(Edit 5/29: Finally dug up villain statistics and appended to hands)

Apologies for never getting the villain statistics up with these hands. I tend to grab hand histories from home, throw them up, and then edit and post while I'm at work (c'mon, who's really doing this in their free time?). Meaning that I can't access villain stats while I'm composing here. I'll try to edit this post later when I finally have access to the numbers. But for now, on to the results...

Hand 1)

Villain is 21/10/3.3 over 81 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (MP): $95
CO: $21.80
BTN: $95
SB: $33
BB: $45.15
UTG: $103.65
Pre-Flop: Q J dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, SB calls $2, BB folds, UTG calls $1.75

Flop: ($7.25) 2 T K (3 Players)
SB checks, UTG bets $1, Hero raises to $5, SB folds, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($17.25) J (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($17.25) J (2 Players)
UTG bets $14.50,
Hero?
...
...
Hero calls $14.50

Results: $46.25 Pot ($2.30 Rake)
Hero mucked Q J (three of a kind, Jacks) and LOST (-$21.75 NET)
UTG showed 2 2 (a full house, Twos full of Jacks) and WON $43.95 (+$22.20 NET)

Such a gross river (shampooed), but you have to consider the relative strength of my hand here and compare it to the range of hands that makes a big river bet. It's hard to give credit for a straight, unless we give our opponent credit for floating with AQ or Q9. So I figured his range was heavily weighted towards flushes and air, and the less likely KJ/JT. I was really stunned to see a set of deuces played this way, and not re-raised on the flop or lead on the turn. But regardless, I think it's OK to fold here, since we only beat air and hands like AK/KQ, which don't bet the river like this very often, and when they do, usually bet smaller, trying to get thin value. Depends on the opponent, but there's often enough air in an online player's range to make this call, guilt-free.

-------------------------------

Hand 2)

Villain is 14/13/4 over 157 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: $22.17
MP: $6.66
Hero (CO): $31.56
BTN: $9.11
SB: $40.23
BB: $33.12
Pre-Flop: A J dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) A 9 Q (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB raises to $4.50, Hero calls $3.25

Turn: ($10.80) 9 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($10.80) Q (2 Players)
BB bets $9.50,
Hero?
...
...
Hero folds

Results: $10.80 Pot ($0.54 Rake)
BB mucked and WON $10.26 (+$4.91 NET)

I chickened out here. I think it would have been perfectly fine to call, since I'm looking at so few combinations of cards that beat me - AK, which checks back the river more often; AQ (4 combos); Q9 (4 combos) QQ (1 combo); 99 (1 combo). 10 possible monster hands, and then some other Qx/9x garbage hands that stumble into gold. But those should be discounted, since they are more likely to call the flop (relatively scary) and look for a cheap showdown. Again, there's usually enough air in an online opponent's range to make calling correct here.

-------------------------------

Hand 3)

Villain is 24/19/2.1 over 101 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (SB): $50
BB: $50.90
UTG: $72.15
CO: $78.70
BTN: $50
Pre-Flop: K Q dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, BTN raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $5.75, BB calls $5.25, BTN folds

Flop: ($13.25) K 6 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $7, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($27.25) 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $18,
Hero?
...
...
Hero raises to $37.25 and is All-In, BB calls $19.25

River: ($101.75) 5 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $101.75 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed K Q (a pair of Kings) and LOST (-$50 NET)
BB showed A A (a pair of Aces) and WON $98.75 (+$48.75 NET)

It looks like a make a mistake here by not C-betting the flop. If I do, it's easy to conceive my opponent raising with AA, and then I can fold rather confidently.

My thinking was this: I've 3-bet and been called. If I fire this flop, I probably fold out all worse hands...maybe QQ/JJ calls one street and hopes that I give up. If I lead and get raised, I'm done. If I check-raise, I overrepresent my hand, and once again, get all worse hands to fold. So instead, I figured I could check the flop and get just as much information, based on my opponent's action. I don't learn a whole lot by check-calling the flop - he could do that with his entire range. But when he fires a 2nd barrel on the turn, that's very rarely worse than AK (and now it could also be 99). The only hand I beat is something like AdQd, continuing a semi-bluff... but it's a small part of his range, since he'll often check behind and take a free card to hit his draw.

In other words, regardless of whether I C-bet or not, it's a mistake to shove this turn, since I'm never getting any value here, and I'm getting snapped off by the hands that have me crushed.