Strong Hands In Trouble (Results)

Okay, here are the results from the quiz hands from my last post. All tough spots, but I think the recurring theme is that these are all spots where a fold is okay. In a few cases, I was able to make the fold, and in a few I couldn't.


Hand 1.
Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: $51.20
Hero (MP): $57.15
CO: $50.75
BTN: $69.70
SB: $52.90
BB: $50
Pre-Flop: A Q dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $6, CO calls $6, 3 folds, UTG calls $4.25

Flop: ($18.75) J A 7 (3 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $11, CO calls $11, UTG folds

Turn: ($40.75) 2 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($40.75) 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $33.75 and is All-In,
Hero?
Hero calls $33.75

Results: $108.25 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero mucked A Q (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-$50.75 NET)
CO showed J J (three of a kind, Jacks) and WON $105.25 (+$54.50 NET)

Ron and Stephen both said call, and call I did, but looking back, I don't like it. The villain calls my PF re-raise, which narrows his range quite a bit, to something like 99+, AK-AJ. There are really any draws on the flop, so his smooth-call of my C-bet indicates significant strength. It basically further narrows his range down to JJ, AA, AK-AJ. Basically, a range that I am completely crushed by. Then on the river villain pushes his stack in, which is just less that pot-size. This is a move I have been increasingly using, trying to feign weakness by overbetting. All the more reason I should have picked up on it. I really only beat air on the river, and since I didn't really have any good reason to put my opponent on air, my call is really bad. What's more, I had the right idea by checking twice, I just couldn't find the fold on the end.


Hand 2.
Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
SB: $47.75
BB: $101.85
UTG: $83.50
Hero (MP): $54.90
CO: $74.55
BTN: $72.45
Pre-Flop: J J dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $6, UTG calls $4.25

Flop: ($12.75) 4 9 5 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $8, UTG raises to $16, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($44.75) 7 (2 Players)
UTG bets $61.50 and is All-In,
Hero?
Hero folds

Results: $44.75 Pot ($2.20 Rake)
UTG mucked and WON $42.55 (+$20.55 NET)

This one I managed to fold, and I think it was the right move. This looks to me like either big pair played tricky or a set of 9s. It leans towards the big pair since the set of 9s might slow down to ensure that he gets my whole stack. The only hands I beat that might play it this way are Ah-Xh and 10-10.

My plan with this hand was to push the turn if a blank fell and the villain either checked or made a middle-sized bet. That plan was obviously blown when he pushed the blank turn. Maybe a big push on the flop is better, but I liked my plan and wasn't expecting such a big move on the turn.


Hand 3.
Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BB: $111.85
Hero (UTG): $54.80
CO: $55.40
BTN: $66.55
SB: $53.25
Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $1.75, CO raises to $4, 3 folds, Hero calls $2.25

Flop: ($8.75) 8 2 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $6, Hero raises to $17, CO raises to $28,
Hero?
Hero raises to $50.80 and is All-In, CO calls $22.80

Turn: ($110.35) 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($110.35) J (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $110.35 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed Q Q (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$54.80 NET)
CO showed A A (a pair of Aces) and WON $107.35 (+$52.55 NET)


I hate this hand because I see two better ways to play it. I wish I had 4-bet PF and then folded to a 5-bet (I'm beat 95% of the time when a 5-bet comes there).

Then, given the action, I actually think I should have folded to the min re-raise on the flop, since it reaked so strongly of AA or KK. I just don't think 10-10 or JJ makes that min-raise there.

Kind of a cold deck, but still a spot where I have to save my final $30 and wait for a better spot.


Hand 4.
Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BTN: $48.35
SB: $100
BB: $86.90
Hero (UTG): $52.80
MP: $43
CO: $40.60
Pre-Flop: K T dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $1.75, MP calls $1.75, 3 folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.50) Q K 7 (3 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, MP raises to $6, BB folds, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($17.50) K (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP checks

River: ($17.50) 6 (2 Players)
Hero bets $8, MP raises to $22.50,
Hero?
Hero folds

Results: $33.50 Pot ($1.65 Rake)
MP mucked and WON $31.85 (+$16.10 NET)

This fold was based mostly on feel, but I think it all adds up when you take a look back. I think the first and most important point to consider is that at this level (50NL), you will very rarely find players making bluff raises on the river. My opponent's line shows extreme strength - raise flop, check behind on turn, raise river. Given that the board paired on the turn, this is exactly the line of someone who boated up on the turn and checked hoping to induce a bluff or thin value bet on the river. I think I'm seeing a boat half the time here, and AK/KJ/K10 the other half. K10 is a small percentage, and I'm only chopping in that case. I just couldn't put him on a hand I would beat.

So, 2 folds out of 4 isn't bad. Just wish I could have found a way to fold them all. But when you have a run of hands like this in one sitting, you start talking yourself into thinking your opponent has that one hand you can beat.