The Poker Shrink Is In

You know that sinking feeling you get when you're in a hand, and someone makes a raise or otherwise takes a line that shows strength, and you're sitting there with a strong but not that strong hand?

You're thinking - c'mon dawg, I finally have a strong hand, and now this happens?

But there's still that small chance he's making a move with nothing, or maybe he's just a donkey and doesn't realize how strong you probably are.

So that twisted hopeful voice in your head says - maybe I'm still ahead. After all, he could be making this move with (you desperately think up some unlikely hand). I've been waiting too long for a hand this strong, I'm sticking with it.

But think about it....you had a physical reaction to a situation - your stomach churned, some serious negative chemicals started swirling around in your head. That's instinct at it's purist. That comes from experience, knowing the way this type of situation has played out many times in the past (disastrously).

But it's always mind over matter, and I guess we're deep down all optimists, since we tend to follow that little voice over, literally, our gut.

Or maybe we're not optimists, but rather, we call despite knowing we are probably going to lose. Then, when we lose, we can chalk it all up to bad luck, and we have a story to tell in an attempt to elicit sympathy. Someone once said "If it weren't for luck, I'd win them all." But I recall that person being a real ass.

So Point #1 - If you're going to call and then complain about your bad luck, why don't you go back, listen to your instincts, and fold. It will save you money, and it will save you from being an ass.

But converse to all of this is my main point, Point #2, which is that our instincts can sometimes mislead us. Why? Because we remember experiences selectively. We distinctly recall our bad luck, but rarely remember the good. Negative experiences stick out in our memory, while positive ones fade away. We're guilty of the Lake Wobegon fallacy, thinking that the negative experiences are the outliers, not the positive ones. After all, we're great poker players, it's just those suckouts that are killing us, damnit!

I thought of all of this after playing this hand, and hopefully I won't forget this particular lesson soon...

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
CO: $53.35
BTN: $56.25
SB: $54.55
Hero (BB): $68.40
UTG: $45.70
Pre-Flop: J T dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1

Flop: ($3) T T 8 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB calls $2

Beautiful flop. I have to C-bet to build a pot, charge draws, and elicit a float.

Turn: ($7) 2 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB raises to $10, Hero calls $5

Ugh, not thrilled. Here comes that feeling. It can't be a semi-bluff, because he hasn't given himself any FE. Could it be Q-10, K-10, 10-2, 88? All possible. Instincts say I'm in some trouble here.

River: ($27) 7 (2 Players)

Awful card. Clubs get there, as does J-9.

SB checks, Hero bets $10, SB calls $10

And then, suddenly, the sinking feeling fades away. There's no way he would check after raising the turn if he had a flush or boat here. So now I have a chance to go to ValueTown.

Results: $47 Pot ($2.35 Rake)
SB mucked T 9 (three of a kind, Tens) and LOST (-$23.50 NET)
Hero showed J T (three of a kind, Tens) and WON $44.65 (+$21.15 NET)

So there it is, instincts proven wrong, nice pot won, and it seems I've gotten nowhere now. But even though my gut mislead me this time, I'll follow it every chance I get.