650BB PLO pot tyvm

In PLO, it's common to see 2 opponents get their chips in on the flop. And although it will sometimes be a case of one player having a dominating hand (set over set) or draw, it seems more common to find the equities on the flop to be in the neighborhood of 50/50 or 60/40 (usually a draw vs. a made hand). Both opponents take aggressive lines on the flop, hoping there's a faint chance off having some fold equity - ultimately, neither is making a very big mistake equity-wise by getting it all in.

But while it can be fine to jam it in on the flop, odds and equities can change significantly and make it a mistake to apply the same blind aggression on the turn. You can induce these mistakes by taking a less aggressive line on the flop with a plan to jam the turn if a safe (blank) card peels off. At low stakes, this is most commonly observed when someone flops a nut straight with no redraws and, facing aggression, waits for a safe turn to get it in. The hand I played here is an example of another good spot to wait until the turn to turn up the heat...

This was the biggest PLO pot I've won by a good margin (all at 25PLO).

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (Button) ($99.83)
SB ($32.05)
BB ($24)
UTG ($47.21)
MP ($36.41)
CO ($68.64)
Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, K, Q, A
2 folds, CO bets $1.15, Hero calls $1.15, SB calls $1.05, BB calls $0.90

Flop: ($4.90) 7, Q, 2 (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $1.25, CO raises to $5, Hero calls $5, 1 fold, BB calls $3.75

BB donks out small and CO raises, all very nice. Two factors make this a good spot to call instead of raising:
1) The board is dry, with no straights possible to come in on the turn
2) BB is very likely to call behind with a dominated hand. If I don't have the BB dominated, then they might both be on flush draws holding 2 of each other's outs.

The key here is to not freak out about the flush draw. If it gets there, then I should be able to make a simple evaluation of odds on the turn and fold if the action gets heavy. As always in PLO, it's nice to be in position.

Turn: ($19.90) 3 (3 players)
BB bets $17.80 (All-In), CO calls $17.80, Hero raises to $91.10, CO calls $44.64 (All-In)

Very blankish turn and BB ships it (fist-pump). With the call, it seems fairly obvious now that CO has a FD, so here I get him to make a questionable call for the rest of his deep stack.

River: ($162.58) 3 (3 players, 2 all-in)

River pairs the board and I rake the monsterpotten.

Total pot: $162.58 Rake: $3
Results:
Hero had Q, K, Q, A (full house, Queens over threes).
BB had 7, 8, 4, 2 (two pair, sevens and threes).
CO had A, 7, 5, K (two pair, sevens and threes).
Outcome: Hero won $159.58

This is a flop where a disciplined player may be able to let his hand go if repot it and he is holding just the naked flush draw. Or, he may call and have decent enough odds with 2 cards to come. But on this turn, it's pretty bad to call off an almost 200BB raise with one card to come.

Special thanks to the BB for making the horrendous PF call and bad turn ship with the janky 2-pair.

PLO: 3-Way All-In

I pledged to actually start posting some PLO cash hands and mine for interesting content, tough spots, and major leaks in my game. Well, I had this hand go down the other day...all of the action is pre-flop, but PLO can be a funny game pre-flop, playing far differently than NLHE, and providing a much higher frequency of multi-way all-in scenarios.

UTG is 43/9/2.5 over 92.
BB is 63/19/1.3 w/5.3% 3-bet over 41 hands.

Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($47.10)
SB ($37.91)
BB ($30.09)
UTG ($29.01)
Hero (MP) ($28.42)
CO ($70.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A, Q, A, 6
UTG bets $1.15,

Hero calls $1.15, <-- Kinda hate my hand, what with no suits and that ugly 6 dangler. But I'm never folding any AAxx hand to a single raise, especially in position. The set over set possibilities are yummy enough on their own to make this call automatic

CO calls $1.15, Button calls $1.15, 1 fold,

BB raises to $7.30, <-- It gets interesting here. This is almost always AAxx, although there's always the chance he's just some complete gamblerrific maniac. It's less likely, but he could also have a really strong rundown, like AKQJds or KQJTds.

UTG calls $6.15, <-- This is most definitely not AAxx, since he would be getting it in 100% of the time.

Hero raises to $28.37 (All-In), <-- One thing I know for sure - I can't just call, since there will be so many unattractive flops. But I think folding may actually be fine. Some analysis coming below.
2 folds, BB raises to $30.04 (All-In), UTG calls $21.66 (All-In)

Flop: ($88.99) 7, 8, 5 (3 players, 3 all-in)
Turn: ($88.99) Q (3 players, 3 all-in)
River: ($88.99) 4 (3 players, 3 all-in)
Total pot: $88.99 Rake: $3
Results:
BB had J, Q, 9, 10 (one pair, Queens).
UTG had 9, 9, 10, J (one pair, nines).
Hero had A, Q, A, 6 (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: BB won $1.18, Hero won $84.81

I remember pushing the button to ship my stack in, and I remember immediately regretting it. Then I saw all of the cards turn up, and the board race out so fast that I couldn't compute quickly enough whether my hand had held up or not. For some reason the Q seemed particularly bad. But then, I see it all being shipped my way.

I quickly went back and ran the odds, and here's where I was really stunned:

That's right, I was a 67% favorite to win in a 3-way all-in pre-flop PLO hand. I smiled at my good fortune and immediately felt vindicated for my pre-flop play. But then I started wondering about my original assumption - that at least one of my opponents held AAxx. So let's see what happens when we keep the rundown and give the 3rd opponent a mediocre single-suited AAxx hand:

This is pretty dramatic. Less than 7% to win outright, and only 22% equity. In other words, I most definitely want to avoid getting it all in here. And, interestingly, the suited rundown jumps up to being the favorite at 44% equity. So basically, given my assumption that I was up against an AAxx hand at least as strong as this one, I should probably have folded.

Now let's look at an even stronger AAxx hand, a double-suited hand with some connectedness:

My equity sinks down to 17%! And this confirms my original fear and bolsters my opinion of my starting hand - without suitedness, it is garbage.

But, we have to note a growing trend in PLO. As more players come to understand how well strong rundowns play against AAxx, we have to consider the possibility that more players will be willing to get all-in with these hands, and may even be the all-in aggressor. And as this hand reveals, when you end up going multi-way, if you have 2 hands with overlapping rundowns, you get a disastrous card cancellation effect (stealing each other's out) that absolutely murders your equity.

Ultimately, we have to know our opponents to know whether it will be wise to get in with a bad AAxx hand. Have we seen them get maniacal with rundowns? Have we seen them call off with these types of hands? In most cases, you will see 2 AAxx hands, and you are in big trouble. So I still think I should have mucked here.

One final note: Regarding the BB's PF 3-bet with the Q-high rundown, I think it's pretty bad, mainly b/c you have very little fold equity and will almost surely be taking a flop 3-handed or worse from OOP. And once the 3-bet has been called in 2 places, you are holding less than a PSB. Nevermind the possibility that someone with a dominating AAxx hand might be ready to get it in and have you in bad shape.

2 In The Flesh - Results

Alright, thanks for the comments on the 2 live action hands. I got a nice range of responses.

Hand 1)
Preflop: 4 limpers, I have Ad-Ts in the BB and check. Pot is $11.
Flop: Th-6c-3s. I lead for $7, 1 MP calls, CO raises to $30. MP has $80 behind, CO has $110 behind. What's the best play here?

This is a really awkward spot. The flop is ultra-dry, and I'm getting my TPTK raised by a non-aggro villain. It looks pretty strong. At the time we were playing, I thought there had to be a good chance that he had a set of 3's or 6's. But I convinced myself that he might make this play with KT or AT, or possibly 45. After all, I'm leading from the SB, so he has to think that I may be leading a lot of T-x hands that can't stand a raise. So I called, thinking I could get away if the 45 OESD got there, or if something like a Q or K peeled and he kept blasting away. The MP girl folded.

So the pot was $78. The turn was an A, giving me top 2 but not really changing anything if my read was right. I checked, he bet another $30, and after some deliberation I decided to ship in the rest. I figured he may still call with KT, not expecting the A to have helped me. Or, he may make a bad call with 45 and try to river his straight. He tanked for a minute and then called off his last $80. He showed 3-6 for a flopped 2-pair, and the river bricked.

We jawed at each other a little bit afterwards, with him basically calling me a donkey for thinking my AT was good after his flop raise, and me countering that I didn't expect a decent player to be in there with 3-6. I told him I thought he might make that raise with a T, and he said he would never do that.

Good call by Wonka, Mojo, Meister. Bad call by me (and great turn!), and especially bad call by Hef. :)

But in all seriousness, I don't think I would ever re-pop that flop, at least not against this villain. It's a limped pot, so a 3-bet here is only getting called by better hands - sets and 2-pairs. It was a mistake to add 4-5 to his range, and that's the only hand you would want to be 3-betting for value on the flop. The last thing we want to do against KT is 3-bet and let him get away easily.

Another point on this hand is my initial comment - it's harder for me to lay down hands like this live, since the action is so much slower, and it's hard to know how long it will be until you get a hand as playable as TPTK. And since I only get 3-5 hour live action windows, sometimes I can go for entire sessions without much happening. So I force things to happen, which rarely turns out good. But this was one of those fortunate times.

Hand 2)
Villain in this hand has a small clue about how to play, but has no idea how to size his bets, and I have seen him make some random bluffs.

Preflop: I won the previous pot so I post a $5 kill and I'm on the button. 2 EP player limp and I check 45o. SB folds and BB calls. Pot is $21.
Flop: 7-8-Q rainbow. It checks around to me and I check it through.
Turn: 6. UTG limper leads for $7, UTG+1 calls, and I call. Pot is $40.
River: 8. UTG leads for $23. UTG+1 folds. It's on me and UTG has $60 behind. Hero?

I thought it was interesting how many of you are suggesting a river shove here, especially when the river card is so ugly, pairing the board and putting me behind a bunch of hands. Only Mojo seemed committed to a call, everyone else suggesting a shove. I was actually waffling between calling and folding.

Let's examine the action - UTG checks the flop and then leads the turn...this suggests a couple possibilities:
a) He had a big hand on the flop and was hoping to trap (Q8/77/88...78 less likely, since I think most people would bet to protect a vulnerable bottom 2 pair)
b) He has made a hand on the turn and wants to get value (66/76/86/9T/59/54)
c) He now feels good about a weak made hand after the flop checked through (Q-x/8-x)
d) He has decided to bluff or semi-bluff (5-x/9-x) from OOP with a small 1/3 pot bet.

Now on the river, the 8 pairs, and he leads out again from OOP, and this time for more (still only about 1/2 pot, but I think in his eyes it was a big bet). To my mind, this eliminates all of the Q-x hands in category c), and also eliminates some of the hands in category b), like 76. What's left? A bunch of boats, some 8-x hands, and the unlikely bluff. It's a small pot and I'm only in it b/c I posted a kill...do I really want to ship it here and risk dumping off 50BBs in a limped pot?

I actually thought he was strong, and had it been a bigger pot, I may well have folded. But I made what I thought was the crying call, mainly on the thought that he would be making this bet with a wide range of 8-x hands. He showed A-6, which really falls into the unlikely bluff category. Shipping wouldn't have gotten a call here, but it's worth wondering whether it would have gotten a call from 8-x.

I had a pretty solid session, starting with $160 and leaving with $410, so now I'm all psyched to get back out there again. Back home, I'm still grinding PLO, but I'm losing patience, so I may be back at the 6-max NLHE games before too long.

2 In The Flesh

After negotiating my way into a night of live poker ($1-$2NLHE), I found myself in a funny but familiar position - having just a few short hours to balance my desire to get in as much action as possible with the need to play a smart, winning game.  This is such a common story for me as a poker hobbyist (an enthusiast, but still, given the short shrift of time poker gets, ultimately just a hobbyist).  I love the nuance of the live game, but the online game gives me the fully immersive action of multi-tabling and having the action come by spitfire.

Anyways, keep that in mind as you considering these two hands I played.  What's the right action in these spots?

Hand 1) 

The CO in this hand is a Middle Eastern guy that I've played with many times.  He plays a lot of hands but is a thinking player.  He's not terribly aggressive but limps with a wide range and may continue with a wide range, especially in a small pot.  MP is a young Asian girl playing a short stack who I have never seen get out of line post-flop.  I expect her play to be very straightforward.

Preflop: 4 limpers, I have Ad-Ts in the BB and check.  Pot is $11.

Flop: Th-6c-3s.  I lead for $7, 1 MP calls, CO raises to $30.  MP has $80 behind, CO has $110 behind.  What's the best play here?

Hand 2)

Villain in this hand has a small clue about how to play, but has no idea how to size his bets, and I have seen him make some random bluffs.

Preflop: I won the previous pot so I post a $5 kill and I'm on the button.  2 EP player limp and I check 45o.  SB folds and BB calls.  Pot is $21.

Flop: 7-8-Q rainbow.  It checks around to me and I check it through.

Turn: 6.  UTG limper leads for $7, UTG+1 calls, and I call.  Pot is $40.

River: 8.  UTG leads for $23.  UTG+1 folds.  It's on me and UTG has $60 behind.  Hero?

October

So I did a little disappearing act this month, at least blog-wise. And yeah, I guess the sentiment does also apply a little to poker. Specifically, I have disappeared from the live poker games here around Austin, TX. Just haven't been able to clear the nights to play.

As for my online play, I'm still going at it, but I spent almost the entirety of October playing 6-max PLO on Full Tilt. After the run I had at the end of September, I really wanted to keep riding the PLO wave. Unfortunately, the wave crashed down on me in a nasty way. Here were the month's results.

PLO variance put me to the test here, as I ran a full $200 behind EV over the 4.5K hands that I played. The good news is that I'm still playing a winning game, since my EV was above water.

I still have some major leaks. I call way too many big river bets with non-nut flushes and not holding boats on paired boards. On the upside, I'm getting better at picking my value betting spots, and actually sticking to a bet-fold strategy in thin spots.

The really good news is that the 25PLO games are still swarming with awful players. You just have to be ready to withstand some lumps before they hand it all over to you.

NLHE Online: +$123.97 (just 800 hands)
NLHE Live: N/A
PLO Online: -$189.20
Rakeback: +$83.31

In terms of posting, I guess I have been feeling like the PLO hands I've been playing have been pretty ABC and haven't contained much worth discussing on the strategy side. At low levels where the fundamental play is bad, you really just need to play solid ABC PLO and not get too tricky. But I'm sure there are enough interesting spots that I can start diving into with some more depth. It always seems to help my game when I do so, and maybe that will be part of the trick to getting my profit curve point upwards again. Then again, this is PLO, and the variance is wild and cruel, so maybe I should just keep focused on that EV number, and let the profits come around when the PLO Gods are damn well ready to let it happen.

Oh yeah, I'm headed back to the local live felts this weekend, as the wife and daughter are out of town. So I'll keep a close tab on the action this Friday and Saturday and report anything interesting or noteworthy towards the end of the weekend.