Lost On The River - Results

(Edit 5/29: Finally dug up villain statistics and appended to hands)

Apologies for never getting the villain statistics up with these hands. I tend to grab hand histories from home, throw them up, and then edit and post while I'm at work (c'mon, who's really doing this in their free time?). Meaning that I can't access villain stats while I'm composing here. I'll try to edit this post later when I finally have access to the numbers. But for now, on to the results...

Hand 1)

Villain is 21/10/3.3 over 81 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (MP): $95
CO: $21.80
BTN: $95
SB: $33
BB: $45.15
UTG: $103.65
Pre-Flop: Q J dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, SB calls $2, BB folds, UTG calls $1.75

Flop: ($7.25) 2 T K (3 Players)
SB checks, UTG bets $1, Hero raises to $5, SB folds, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($17.25) J (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($17.25) J (2 Players)
UTG bets $14.50,
Hero?
...
...
Hero calls $14.50

Results: $46.25 Pot ($2.30 Rake)
Hero mucked Q J (three of a kind, Jacks) and LOST (-$21.75 NET)
UTG showed 2 2 (a full house, Twos full of Jacks) and WON $43.95 (+$22.20 NET)

Such a gross river (shampooed), but you have to consider the relative strength of my hand here and compare it to the range of hands that makes a big river bet. It's hard to give credit for a straight, unless we give our opponent credit for floating with AQ or Q9. So I figured his range was heavily weighted towards flushes and air, and the less likely KJ/JT. I was really stunned to see a set of deuces played this way, and not re-raised on the flop or lead on the turn. But regardless, I think it's OK to fold here, since we only beat air and hands like AK/KQ, which don't bet the river like this very often, and when they do, usually bet smaller, trying to get thin value. Depends on the opponent, but there's often enough air in an online player's range to make this call, guilt-free.

-------------------------------

Hand 2)

Villain is 14/13/4 over 157 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: $22.17
MP: $6.66
Hero (CO): $31.56
BTN: $9.11
SB: $40.23
BB: $33.12
Pre-Flop: A J dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) A 9 Q (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB raises to $4.50, Hero calls $3.25

Turn: ($10.80) 9 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($10.80) Q (2 Players)
BB bets $9.50,
Hero?
...
...
Hero folds

Results: $10.80 Pot ($0.54 Rake)
BB mucked and WON $10.26 (+$4.91 NET)

I chickened out here. I think it would have been perfectly fine to call, since I'm looking at so few combinations of cards that beat me - AK, which checks back the river more often; AQ (4 combos); Q9 (4 combos) QQ (1 combo); 99 (1 combo). 10 possible monster hands, and then some other Qx/9x garbage hands that stumble into gold. But those should be discounted, since they are more likely to call the flop (relatively scary) and look for a cheap showdown. Again, there's usually enough air in an online opponent's range to make calling correct here.

-------------------------------

Hand 3)

Villain is 24/19/2.1 over 101 hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (SB): $50
BB: $50.90
UTG: $72.15
CO: $78.70
BTN: $50
Pre-Flop: K Q dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, BTN raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $5.75, BB calls $5.25, BTN folds

Flop: ($13.25) K 6 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $7, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($27.25) 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $18,
Hero?
...
...
Hero raises to $37.25 and is All-In, BB calls $19.25

River: ($101.75) 5 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $101.75 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed K Q (a pair of Kings) and LOST (-$50 NET)
BB showed A A (a pair of Aces) and WON $98.75 (+$48.75 NET)

It looks like a make a mistake here by not C-betting the flop. If I do, it's easy to conceive my opponent raising with AA, and then I can fold rather confidently.

My thinking was this: I've 3-bet and been called. If I fire this flop, I probably fold out all worse hands...maybe QQ/JJ calls one street and hopes that I give up. If I lead and get raised, I'm done. If I check-raise, I overrepresent my hand, and once again, get all worse hands to fold. So instead, I figured I could check the flop and get just as much information, based on my opponent's action. I don't learn a whole lot by check-calling the flop - he could do that with his entire range. But when he fires a 2nd barrel on the turn, that's very rarely worse than AK (and now it could also be 99). The only hand I beat is something like AdQd, continuing a semi-bluff... but it's a small part of his range, since he'll often check behind and take a free card to hit his draw.

In other words, regardless of whether I C-bet or not, it's a mistake to shove this turn, since I'm never getting any value here, and I'm getting snapped off by the hands that have me crushed.

Lost On The River

Every chance I've had of late to post here, I've instead chosen to play more poker. As a result, I've been accumulating a handful of post ideas and a number of tough hands, and hopefully I'll get them all out here before they drift out of my head (as things do at a rapid pace these days).

I had a pretty bad losing session yesterday. It was precipitated by losing AA vs. KK (AIPF)...I turned a little bit aggro after that, making way more hero calls that I normally do, and more bluffs too. All were ill-timed, and many were poorly thought out. But regardless, I had an inordinate number of tough or weird spots. Three of them are included here. In the first two, I was facing big river bets holding marginal hands. In the 3rd, I got myself into a tricky spot by 3-betting light from the blinds. Any feedback is appreciated...

Hand 1)

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (MP): $95
CO: $21.80
BTN: $95
SB: $33
BB: $45.15
UTG: $103.65
Pre-Flop: Q J dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, SB calls $2, BB folds, UTG calls $1.75

Flop: ($7.25) 2 T K (3 Players)
SB checks, UTG bets $1, Hero raises to $5, SB folds, UTG calls $4

I basically ignore tiny donk bets and just treat them like checks, betting the amount that I would normally C-bet anyways. I would say it's commonly done when donks flop draws, using the stupid "juice the pot, just in case I hit" logic. What's especially nice (for me) is that it gives away information without affecting the size of the pot. But anyways, this is mostly tangential to the action.

Turn: ($17.25) J (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($17.25) J (2 Players)
UTG bets $14.50,
Hero?

I've backdoored trips, which is pretty well disguised, but all kinds of other hands have gotten there. What's my action here?

-------------------------------

Hand 2)

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: $22.17
MP: $6.66
Hero (CO): $31.56
BTN: $9.11
SB: $40.23
BB: $33.12
Pre-Flop: A J dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) A 9 Q (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB raises to $4.50, Hero calls $3.25

Turn: ($10.80) 9 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($10.80) Q (2 Players)
BB bets $9.50,
Hero?

You can argue that this is a fold to the flop check-raise, but I had position and was playing through a stubborn, tiltish phase. The turn and river cards make the action a bit more interesting, by greatly reducing the likelihood of a set of 9s or Qs. Not sure I can beat anything other than a bluff here though, right?

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Hand 3)

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (SB): $50
BB: $50.90
UTG: $72.15
CO: $78.70
BTN: $50
Pre-Flop: K Q dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, BTN raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $5.75, BB calls $5.25, BTN folds

I would much prefer the Button to call, which he might do with a wider range that includes some hands that I beat. The BB has a strong range to overcall here. Stats would help...sorry I don't have them now.

Flop: ($13.25) K 6 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $7, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($27.25) 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $18,
Hero?

Hand Range and Hand Probability

Humor me for a moment while I lecture in an area where I am perfectly unqualified to say a single authoritative word. When considering hand ranges, it is facile to make simple calculations using basic information: possible hands and the number of combinations that make up those hands.

Of course, hand ranges are not static. One's picture of a villain's hand range should evolve with each action that is taken in a given hand. The hand range PF is narrowed by the action on the flop, and the hand range on the flop is further narrowed by the action on the turn.

This all seems straightforward enough. But when considering hand ranges in terms of hand combinations, it is easy to make the mistake of assigning equal probability to all hands in the range. This is my cardinal sin, and this entire thought process brought on by a hand that I mangled yesterday (details later).

The problem is one of oversimplification, and also of blind optimism. Here's an example:

Say you hold AKo, raise PF, get one TAG caller, and the flop comes K-8-5 rainbow. You bet and get raised. You assign a hand range of AK/KQ/88/55/67 and some small amount of air. You call and the turn comes a 2. You check and the villain bets 4/5 of the pot. Now, the hand range that you assigned hasn't changed much, but the hand probabilities have. That's because it isn't equally likely that he fires a big turn bet with each of the hands in his range. A lot of players would check back 67 and take a free river card. Same goes for KQ, for pot control reasons. So now the probability of your opponent holding those hands goes down. In other words, things just got worse for you, because the two hands that you beat just dropped off in probability. Even though there are far fewer combinations of 55 and 88 in his range (6 total), the probability that the villain is holding that hand just went up, since he makes that big turn bet a high % of the time with those hands.

Now on to the hand in question:

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
SB: $29.50
BB: $104.75
UTG: $50
MP: $64.70
Hero (CO): $50.70
BTN: $63.20
Pre-Flop: K J dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.25) 2 T J (2 Players)
Hero bets $2.40, BTN raises to $6.30, Hero calls $3.90

Here we can make our first hand range asssessment. It could be 22/TT/JJ, although we can discount TT and JJ since we'll often see a 3-bet from the button with those hands. It could be JT/AJ/KJ. With no flush draws, the possible semi-bluff drawing hands are 89 and KQ.

Turn: ($16.85) 5 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $12, Hero calls $12

Turn is a blank. Villain bets 4/5 pot. At this point there's still a chance that my opponent is semi-bluffing an OESD, but that chance should be much lower now, since opponents will often take a free card and try to hit their straight. Also, QJ/KJ/AJ become much less likely, as those hands will look to pot control here, fearing that I am holding an overpair.

The key in analyzing this spot is to apply probabilities to the hands in my opponent's range. Sure, AJ is in my opponent's range, but he's raising the flop AND betting the turn no more than 15-20% of the time. With 89/KQ, he may only be continuing the semi-bluff 30-40% of the time. But with 22/JT, he's firing a 2nd barrel very frequently, between 80-100%. So even though there are more combinations of the hands that I beat and are drawing, when you apply probabilities, I am way behind the hands that he likely holds.

But ever hopeful, I call.

River: ($40.85) 3 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $20, Hero calls $20

River is another blank, putting a spade flush up. I check and the villain bets $20, half the pot. Here, thinking about how many ways my opponent has 89 and KQ (praying that my opponent has fired a 3rd barrel with either air or a missed draw), I make the clown call. Had I properly assessed the hand range AND probabilities, it would have been an easy fold. On the river, and on the turn.

Results: $80.85 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero mucked K J (a pair of Jacks) and LOST (-$40.05 NET)
BTN showed 2 2 (three of a kind, Twos) and WON $77.85 (+$37.80 NET)