Tricky 99 Hand

I brought up this hand in my last post, since it was a weird spot and I was a little lost at the time. Here's the hand and the results...

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (SB): $50.25
BB: $51.60
UTG: $52.60
MP: $51
CO: $55.60
BTN: $49.25
Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, CO folds, BTN raises to $2.25, Hero raises to $8.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $6.25

I raise here PF because 99 is pretty far ahead of most players' button raising ranges. I stand to take it down PF a good percentage of the time. But when I'm called, I can end up with some difficult decisions. To wit...

Flop: ($18) 2 Q 8 (2 Players)
Hero bets $12.50, BTN calls $12.50

Turn: ($43) Q (2 Players)
Hero?

The Q is actually a pretty decent turn card. It's less likely that my opponent has a Q, and if he did, then I was already beat anyway, so my standing hasn't changed. The only problem now is that there's no way I can bluff someone off of a weak Q-x hand.

Returning to my postulate that post-flop play in 3-bet pots tends to be very straightforward, I think we can deduce that my opponent is very unlikely to have air or random high cards, which leaves us with a few possibilities - Q-x, 88, 22, any 2 big hearts (Qh-xh is more likely to have raised the flop), JJ, TT, 99, and maybe A8s, K8s, or 98s. I discount KK and AA, since those hands almost always raise the flop. I'm way behind the Q-x, 88, 22, JJ, TT and in good shape against 2 hearts or 8-x.

Now, I have to act first, there's $43 in the pot, and I have $29 behind. Since I'm likely to be behind here, I think we could check-fold and it wouldn't be the worst decision. But I actually prefer a shove. Our $29 bet would be a good sized bet, enough to make most opponents fold TT or JJ. This also makes it a mistake for a drawing hand to call, even with 13 outs (2 overs + FD).

Hef suggested the possibility of a small bet, intending to fold to a raise. But I don't really think there's any way we can bet-fold here. A $5 bet is way too small - we would gain very little information, since our opponent could call us with something as weak as a gutshot, and we could induce a bluff-raise from a FD-type hand. Betting anything more pretty much commits us to the pot.

As for the action...

Hero bets $29.25 and is All-In, BTN calls $28.25 and is All-In

River: ($99.50) 3 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $99.50 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed 9 9 (two pair, Queens and Nines) and LOST (-$49.25 NET)
BTN showed 8 8 (a full house, Eights full of Queens) and WON $96.50 (+$47.25 NET)

We knew 88 was in our villain's range, but I still think shoving here is fine. Although I meant to highlight the fit-or-fold play of 3-bet pots, I still think there are some semi-fit type hands, like TT/JJ/draws, that merit the type of continued aggression that I ended up applying.

As always, thanks for the comments and I hope to get back to playing and posting some more soon.