Thursday, August 13, 2009

Pots and PF Bets That Precede Them

I've been thinking a bit about post-flop play and it's relationship to the number of PF raises that were made. This stems from a couple of 3-bet pots that I played recently (one of which I will get to shortly). The increased frequency of 3- and 4-betting PF means more post-flop pots starting big, with small SPRs. At 25NL and 50NL, these pots tend to play much differently than pots with just one PF raise. It's almost like everyone puts their serious cap on once a 3-bet has been made and called. Here's a slightly more detailed breakdown of how I see it:

1 PF Raise - This is by far the most common type of pot. I won't go into it much, because there's so much to cover. These pots can be seen up to 5-ways or more, and hand ranges are at their widest. Players have the greatest number of options available. If someone feels like getting tricky, this is the type of pot where they'll try out their moves.

3-bet PF - In 3-bet pots, you are usually heads-up. If you are playing 100 BBs deep, and PF raises are pot-sized (1st raise is 3.5BBs, 3-bet is 11 or 12BBs), then the pot will be about 20-25BBs going to the flop. These big pots tend to discourage trickiness...once one bet has gone into the pot post-flop, the pretty much the only move left is to shove all-in. It's a risky and expensive move to make. Thus the main point - In 3-bet pots, the play is generally straightforward, assuming players aren't deepstacked.

4-bet PF - Happens rarely since 4-bets are rarely cold-called PF, but when it does, the rest is usually getting in pretty quickly. Not much analysis needed.

With all of that said, here's a hand I played recently. How do these ideas apply here? I'll save my thoughts for a little bit later...

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (SB): $50.25
BB: $51.60
UTG: $52.60
MP: $51
CO: $55.60
BTN: $49.25
Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, CO folds, BTN raises to $2.25, Hero raises to $8.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $6.25

Flop: ($18) 2 Q 8 (2 Players)
Hero bets $12.50, BTN calls $12.50

Turn: ($43) Q (2 Players)
Hero?

2 comments:

WillWonka said...

I would have a problem not pushing here. The Q seems like a good card for you. His call on the flop can mean a few things. A flush draw, middle pair or bigger pair.

Without know stats on the guy, I'm pushing.

Anonymous said...

Let's see...what kind of hands would raise the button, call a re-raise, and then smooth call a 3/4 pot-size bet on the flop? I would break it down into one of following 3 categories: 1) a hand that has you crushed (AA, KK, AQ, a flopped set), 2) a strong draw (Ah-xh, Kh-xh, or Qh-xh), or 3) a smaller PP than your 9's. The problem here is that you're OOP, have already invested 40% of your stack, and any reasonably-sized turn bet is going to pot-commit you. So either push now...or slow down and hope to check it down. Or the other option is to bet $5 on the turn (as if you have AQ and now you're milking him) and hope that he folds. If he raises, then it was a small enough bet that you're not pot-committed to call off your stack (but it also leaves you vulnerable to a bluff).

Hef