January

January was marked by a crushing downswing where I lost some $500+ (30 or so buy-ins across both $25 and $50 PLO) over less than 3K hands. But I fought all the way back to beign $10 away from breakeven by the close of the month. That upswing corresponded directly with the introduction of the Rush table at FTP. Not fully sure what that means...I'm sure that the bad players trying out the Rush tables helped some. But I'm scared to think that I play in some predictable manner that makes the relative anonymity of Rush a real boost to my game. I guess time will tell.

For the record, this month counts as a win in my goal to have 10 out of 12 profitable months. Sometimes rakeback feels like a bonus, but really, it's money that I won. It just so happens that I only get 27% of it back.

PLO Online: -$10.22

Rakeback: $125.29

NLHE Live: -$140

December

Back from a holiday disappearance, during which I really didn't play too much. There have been some PLO ideas swimming in my head, but I'm still working a lot out at the online tables.

As for December, it was a bit of a wild month - a killer streak to start off the month, followed by a massive swoon, followed by a comeback marked by luck and suckouts. As a result, I ended up with a decent winning month, but a big gap between profits and EV (over $200). So, it was hard to really think that I played that well.

PLO: +$149.44 (EV -$66.30)

NLHE (live): +$265

A solid month to close out the year, and there's nothing like a hot streak to keep the fever alive (cue brutal EV downswing!). So I don't guess I'll be getting away from PLO at the start of 2010.

I'll be pulling together some 2009 year-end results and doing a goal analysis as soon as I get a chance, so look for that shortly.

November

PLO Online: +$238.72

NLHE Online: N/A

Rakeback + Bonus: +$78.87
NLHE Live: +$189

So my PLO month was pretty good, although I did run a good $90 over EV, which is pretty lucky (but doesn't come close to cancelling out the -$225 I ran against EV last month). I played just over 5K hands and won at a 17.7 BB/100 clip. At this point, I'm ready, both mentally and bankroll-wise, to move up to $50 PLO ($.25-$.50). So at some point this week I'll just go ahead and make the move.

As for strategy and posts, I have a few hands and ideas to get into, but in general I don't have a whole lot to post. I think that's partly because I'm playing pretty nitty and straightforward and partly because I'm too green to try to talk authoritatively about PLO concepts. All of that said, I think I still have some glaring leaks, which I aim to root out and then air out here. So look out for some demonstrations of me at my PLO worst.

As for NLHE, I'm just running too good and enjoying PLO too much to want to play much NLHE online. The PLO novelty hasn't worn off yet. But I still plan to play some live NLHE, and when I do I will be sure to share those hands and experiences here.

October

So I did a little disappearing act this month, at least blog-wise. And yeah, I guess the sentiment does also apply a little to poker. Specifically, I have disappeared from the live poker games here around Austin, TX. Just haven't been able to clear the nights to play.

As for my online play, I'm still going at it, but I spent almost the entirety of October playing 6-max PLO on Full Tilt. After the run I had at the end of September, I really wanted to keep riding the PLO wave. Unfortunately, the wave crashed down on me in a nasty way. Here were the month's results.

PLO variance put me to the test here, as I ran a full $200 behind EV over the 4.5K hands that I played. The good news is that I'm still playing a winning game, since my EV was above water.

I still have some major leaks. I call way too many big river bets with non-nut flushes and not holding boats on paired boards. On the upside, I'm getting better at picking my value betting spots, and actually sticking to a bet-fold strategy in thin spots.

The really good news is that the 25PLO games are still swarming with awful players. You just have to be ready to withstand some lumps before they hand it all over to you.

NLHE Online: +$123.97 (just 800 hands)
NLHE Live: N/A
PLO Online: -$189.20
Rakeback: +$83.31

In terms of posting, I guess I have been feeling like the PLO hands I've been playing have been pretty ABC and haven't contained much worth discussing on the strategy side. At low levels where the fundamental play is bad, you really just need to play solid ABC PLO and not get too tricky. But I'm sure there are enough interesting spots that I can start diving into with some more depth. It always seems to help my game when I do so, and maybe that will be part of the trick to getting my profit curve point upwards again. Then again, this is PLO, and the variance is wild and cruel, so maybe I should just keep focused on that EV number, and let the profits come around when the PLO Gods are damn well ready to let it happen.

Oh yeah, I'm headed back to the local live felts this weekend, as the wife and daughter are out of town. So I'll keep a close tab on the action this Friday and Saturday and report anything interesting or noteworthy towards the end of the weekend.

Sweet September

NLHE Online: +$65.27

PLO: +$289.08

NLHE Live: -$131

Rakeback/Bonus: +$91.05

Tourneys: +$1250

Even though I didn't get a whole lot going on the NLHE front, this was by far my most successful month, owing mostly to my $4K guarantee 2nd place finish. Then, I had a monster PLO run to close out the month, running at a cool 132.9 BB/100 over 881 hands. To manage that, I had to run well ahead of EV, but even if I had run well behind EV it would have been hard to register as a loser over that period. Here's the chart:

And after my one day tourney run netted me $1K+, I actually made my first poker money withdrawal on the year, yanking out 8 benjamins, which I will probably take directly to the live house games to squander! It's a vicious circle.

August Results and Don't Bluff Me

Although August wasn't a roaring success, it felt pretty good to log the online profit that I did since I started out with a few really awful sessions.

NLHE Online: +$124.66
NLHE Live: -$400
PLO: $26.37
Bonus + Rakeback: $104.81

The Live NLHE number is a bit of an eyesore there, but it basically boiled down to one nasty, brutish, and short session I played last week. I played ok, ran into bad spots, was dealt garbage for 3 hours and went home empty-handed. That was my one and only live outing this month.

Back on the virtual felt, I still have a lot of room to improve. I have been spewing off a lot of chips making bad bluffs lately. I really need to rein that in. Here's a bad one from the other day...

Villain is 25/23/.33 over 79 hands

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
BTN: $25
SB: $25
Hero (BB): $49.09
UTG: $25
CO: $47.84
Pre-Flop: 7 8 dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, SB raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, SB calls $1.50

I won't always 3-bet here, but I often will once I determine that the SB is raising with a high frequency, since it's so hard for the SB to play from OOP when I 3-bet. I'll usually want to be holding something a little stronger than this.

Flop: ($4.50) 2 J 5 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.25, SB calls $3.25

Dry flop is good for a C-bet. Calling range is unlikely to include be bigger than any 2 clubs, J-x, any pocket pair bigger than 55, and sets.

Turn: ($11) K (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7.50, SB calls $7.50

K is a great card to barrel, but no dice.

River: ($26) 9 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls $12 and is All-In

When we get to the river and no club falls, I feel confident that I can shove to get my opponent off of a J or any 2 clubs. I'm just hoping he doesn't have a hand like Kc-Xc.

Results: $50 Pot ($2.50 Rake)
SB showed 8 8 (a pair of Eights) and WON $47.50 (+$22.50 NET)
Hero showed 7 8 (King Jack high) and LOST (-$25 NET)

Villain followed this up in the chat box with "Don't bluff me". A belated warning.

Nice call I guess. I guess just b/c I know that I'm capable of 3-betting for value pretty light (with a K for sure) doesn't mean that my opponent does. I guess I just look super polarized, to the point where there end up being more bluffs in my range than monsters.

The same guy turned around and pulled a similar move against another opponent at the same table a few orbits later...

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
SB: $25.45
BB: $42.75
Hero (UTG): $25.50
MP: $34.73
CO: $26.10
BTN: $46.19
Pre-Flop: J A dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $0.85, 3 folds, SB raises to $2.80, BB calls $2.55, Hero folds

Flop: ($6.45) 4 T T (2 Players)
SB bets $4.25, BB calls $4.25

Turn: ($14.95) 2 (2 Players)
SB bets $9, BB calls $9

River: ($32.95) 8 (2 Players)
SB bets $9.40 and is All-In, BB calls $9.40

Results: $51.75 Pot ($2.58 Rake)
SB showed A K (a pair of Tens) and LOST (-$25.45 NET)
BB showed J J (two pair, Jacks and Tens) and WON $49.17 (+$23.72 NET)

I looked this guy up and found that he's a winning player over a good number of hands, so maybe he's on to something, but to me, it looks like he's being awfully optimistic in both of these spots.

I'm still not sure I hate my line, but I definitely plan to make careful note of the types of players who are capable of calling down this light.

July

July went pretty well...just what I needed after a disappointing Vegas trip at the end of June. It wasn't a gigantic sample space as far as online play goes, since I only played about 1500 hands each of PLO and NLHE. So maybe it was just lucky 3K hands. On the live poker side, I got in a decent number of live sessions - 6 - and made a profit in each and every one. Once again, maybe a lucky month, or maybe I'm finally figuring something out. Perhaps August will help us discern the truth.

In PLO, I ran ahead of EV, but would've been in the black even if I had run even with it...




And NLHE...

Online NLHE: +$182.03
Live NLHE: +$458.00
Online PLO: +$156.11
Rakeback: +$29.77

June

You'd think such a horrific PLO chart would leave me disheartened and discouraged, but no, I want more. I am, in fact, torn over how to devote my precious few available online poker-playing hours. The numbers suggest one thing, the heart croons for another.

NLHE: +$12.24 (1100 hands)
PLO: -$180.93
Live Poker: -$293
Rakeback: +$56.99

Ah, the peace and serenity of knowing that at least the Rakeback number will be positive each month.

I have a few interesting PLO hands to discuss, one from Vegas and one from a recent tourney. I'll be back with those hands soon.

May Results and Rare Tournament Hand

Been sitting on my May results for a few days. Uneventful and boring, so I was lazy about getting them up...

The chart:


The numbers:

Rakeback: $51.36

NLHE (online): -$21.31

NLHE (live): +$127

PLO: +$108

I really don't have anything to say about the numbers. It's obviously frustrating to register a losing month at online NLHE, but there's obviously some pretty serious leaks and issues in my game, given how long I've been stalled out, making minimal progress.

The plan for this month is to play a lot more PLO. I've already started, and I should have some posts about PLO observations coming down the pipe. Then at the end of the month, I'll be in Vegas, staying at the Rio and playing juicy cash games for a long weekend. So, leading up to that trip, I'll switch back over to NLHE an get warmed up in that game.

One hand I wanted to mention, because it's the rare case of me making a hero call and getting it right. And it's also the rare case of me playing in a tournament. This was a live $40 buy-in ordeal, with rebuys and add-ons. The hand occurs shortly after the rebuy period has ended. There are around 21 or so players (started with 24), and payouts to the top 4.

Stacks: Me - 14000, Villain - 7700
Blinds: 200-400
Position: UTG
Hand: 99
Action: I limp for 400, having just raised my last hand, and wanting to avoid an awkward pot size with this hand from OOP. MP villain raises to 1200, it folds around, and I call. Pot is 3000.

Flop: Q-Q-4
Action: I check. This is a spot where I could easily bet, since I rank to be ahead a lot of the time and could end up in a weird spot if I check-call and another overcard peels off. But I figure I can tell a lot about villain's holding by his action here. Villain, as it turns out, is left holding ~6500 in chips, with one yellow chip denominating 5000 in chips. He looks down at his pile, hesitates for a moment, and then throws in the yellow chip, overbetting 5000 into a 3000 pot.

Now I should say that I don't give this player a ton of credit for knowing what he is doing, so I'm not giving him credit for any real 2nd or 3rd level strategizing. In other words, I can't envision him making this play to extract suspicion and get value from a hand that crushes my 99. There's really no way he makes this move with a Q, since it is the absolute worst way to extract value and double through me.

That leaves some unpaired overcard hands, like AJ/AK/KJ, and a lot of pairs, ranging from 55-JJ. AA/KK is also possible, but he is less likely to make a "protection" bet, which is what the 5K bet looks like to me. The only problem is that a few of the pair hands, namely TT/JJ, have me crushed. Those are the hands that I fear. But given that I can make this call, most likely be in quite good position, and have 6K in chips even if I lose, I made the hero-ish push for the villain's last 1500.

I asked if he had a big pair and he said "No, a little one", and tabled 66. I showed by 99, the board ran out 8-9, giving me an unnecessary boat on the river, and I jumped up to one of the biggest stacks. I went on to chop at the final table for a profit of $220.

The Question Begs

I had a go-nowhere month in April, swinging up and down around the breakeven mark, never really going on any extended runs in either direction. Here's my chart, which for some reason is leaving off my last 300 hands of the month, over which I won my way up to the +$40 figure listed below.

Results
Online NLHE: +$39.96
Rakeback: +$86.23
Live Poker: +$439
PLO: -$227

PLO was down this month. I had a 3-day period where I decided I was going to give PLO my full attention. I downloaded the trial version of Poker Tracker Omaha and started 4-tabling on Full Tilt. Then, due to a combination of running bad and realizing that there are a lot of PLO grinders out there who seemed to be exploiting me and generally running me over, I decided that I needed more training. I've watched a few videos, but I need quite a few more before I venture seriously back into the PLO space.

On to the begging question - Why are you sinking so much into online NLHE when you seem to be spinning your wheels in place, and when there seem to be more profitable avenues (live poker, for instance)? Good question, Voice In My Head. 7000 hands, at about 300 hands per hour, comes out to 23 hours (please wife don't be reading my blog today). The answer's pretty simple. As much as I love live poker, it is a slow grind and it just takes too much commitment. I can squeeze in hour-long online sessions with ease, but I have to plan in advance to get away for at least 3-4 hours of live play. And, like I've said here before, I'm a big dork for stats, so I get titillated by all of the lovely numbers that PT3 crunches for me. The convenience, the stats, the analysis, and the eternal optimism about turning the corner and becoming a regular winner. All keep me hopping online to play, profits or none. Until I hit the frustration threshold and give it up for good, I'll be here posting away about my progress. Stay tuned.

March

March results are in. I wanted to make a joke about how laughable a 0.76 BB/100 winrate is, but since I had losing months in both January and February, I decided to put a lid on the cynical me. For some reason, I couldn't generate a chart that included the last 350 hands of March, where I was up a bit. So I actually won $85.83 for March, and not the $65 or so that the graph indicates:



Here's the better news - I crushed PLO this month. $550 is only approximate, since I don't have tracking numbers. I was playing almost exclusively on Bodog, where the generous fishies swim, IMO. But I'm thinking about getting Poker Tracker Omaha and playing more on FTP, just b/c I'm such a stat junkie. Seriously, if I can't have my stats, I am about half as excited to play poker. Weird huh?

Live poker turned out good too, but would have been better had it not been for a down night last week to the tune of $370.

Live Poker - +$165

PLO - +$550

NLHE - +85.83

February

February chart:

Far fewer hands than in January, but similar net results. I mounted a steady comeback after I hit the bottom of my bad run, but then had a steep falloff when I tried to jump back into 50NL.

It broke down like this:
At 50NL... -$243.00
At 25NL... +$3.00

Rakeback was only $35.69, so overall I lost ~$200.

The good news is that I have been crushing the PLO games on Bodog, and March is starting off nicely in NLHE as well.

One Resolution Down

2009 Poker Goal #3 reads - Finish each month + in profits. LOL! I will take solace that Goal #1 is still intact (Don't go broke), as January was pretty bad. Here's the graph:



My rakeback for the month was about $125, which helps, but still leaves me bleeding.

I'm still learning a tough lesson about letting go of overpairs (more coming soon on that), and I've been running into a lot of sets in bad spots. That said, I started the month out playing too loose PF, and now that I've sort of corrected that problem, I'm now playing too loose post-flop. Stay tuned...I have no intention of whining about my downswing here and then not publishing the upswing too.

But first, I'll be playing some live poker in Lake Tahoe this coming weekend. I'll try to record as many hands as I can and report back.

Also, I have a WSOP Tourney Challenge starting tomorrow. Since I'm running it, I'll be posting updates and standings here. It will last 6 weeks, with one tourney a week. 18 players are in, and the overall winner gets a nice $2700 package to Vegas to play in a $1500 WSOP prelim event.