The main problem with the donk-bet is that so few players are capable of making it with a strong made hand. Therefore, the donk-bettor's range can be narrowed to air, draws, and one-pair hands. The only exception might be on a draw-heavy flop where the donk-bettor has flopped 2-pair or a set (e.g., 7d-9d or 7d-7h on a 7c-8s-9s flop).
As the PFR in position, you are now presented with a lot of information and a lot of options about how to play the hand. Against a calling station-type player, if you have completely whiffed, you can fold easily. If you have an overpair or better, you can raise for value.
Against bluffy types, your best bet is to call and let him put more money in from behind, or to wait and represent real strength, I move that I pulled off here.
The donk lead will often be an information bet - a hand like top pair, which is willing to take down the pot or to fold to strong resistance. In this case, you can play optimally - call with an overpair or better, or bluff-raise with worse. You can also play it like a float, peeling with the intention of bluffing a scare card.
This hand wasn't exactly a float, but it demonstrates how one can put themself in a world of trouble from OOP...
Villain is 40/11/2.8 over 63
Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
UTG: $50.75
MP: $61.10
Hero (CO): $53.50
BTN: $50
SB: $86.40
BB: $50
Pre-Flop: 9
8 dealt to Hero (CO)UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, BTN folds, SB calls $2, 2 folds
Flop: ($5.50) J
5 T
(2 Players)SB bets $4, Hero calls $4
The real benefit of villain's lead is immediate - I think he will almost never make this bet with 55/TT/JJ/JT, but would instead go for the check-raise. I can assign a range that is mostly made up of J-x hands - AJ/KJ/QJ/J9 - but also includes, with less frequency, some weaker hands (AT/KT/QT/9T/99/88) and some draws (89/KQ/Q9).
It's clearly fine to raise here. I have fold equity and a strong draw to go with it, but I somehow doubt my villain is folding to just one barrel. So if I raise here, I have to be willing to follow up with multiple barrels, and no guarantee that my villain will fold. So I call with my decently disguised draw.
Turn: ($13.50) 6
(2 Players)SB bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50
The turn card is a blank...it misses me, but it also improves none of my villain's range. Villain fires a 2nd barrel, and of course there's no way I'm folding here. The 2nd barrel further decreases the likelihood of T-x and small pair hands, which are likely to slow down here, although I don't put a small blockish bet out the range of possibilities. OEDSs are still possible, but J-x is most likely by far.
River: ($24.50) K
(2 Players)SB bets $5, Hero raises to $23, SB folds
I whiff the river, but Villain makes a really sheepishly small bet that looks a lot like a J hoping for a cheap showdown. The K is a great card for me, since it hits a lot of my range for PF raising and calling the flop and turn (AK/AQ/KT/KJ and the less likely KQ/Q9...nevermind the slowplayed sets or KK). I make a raise here that's big enough to induce a fold, but small enough to minimize risk and look like a value-raise. Villain folds without much hesitation.
Results: $34.50 Pot ($1.70 Rake)
Hero mucked 9
8 and WON $32.80 (+$16.05 NET)This is a pretty good demonstration of why it's so hard to play OOP against a PFR. Donk-betting only compounds the problem by narrowing your range and bloating the pot.
I would remiss if I didn't mention this caveat - advanced players can and do turn this logic and thinking against you. But even still, most players will prefer a check-raise to a donk-lead, since it gets more money into the pot. So even against strong players, you will rarely see this move made.
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